Where in the World We Might Be Headed Next?
It is almost certain that the world order that it was – when the United States was the only superpower – is now changing. In fact, the profound social change from the initial simple world characterized by democracy and common desirable goals seems to be less dominant. Today, nations are more divided as they lack a particular common drive that is truly an international agenda. Expertise commentaries suggest that there are several possibilities that could happen in the next decade. According to Doug Saunders (2014), the possibilities can be forecasted according to five contemplates scenarios. This paper selects “a New Cold War Erupts” to provide a discussion on the scenario and current state of affairs and international relationship.
Influential political thinkers believe that the use of the military power by two world leaders, and the use of international or regional institutions as tools to advance self-interest present an ideal atmosphere for a present day Cold War. The action of Vladimir Putin in seizing of Eastern Ukraine, Northern Georgia and the military intervention in Syria is a signal for the return of Russia as the head-to-head power to the USA (Saunders, 2014). USA is under pressure to exert complete control over the world. Although the nation has various allies, it is also true that some countries such as Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela do not share the same ideology of USA (Simha, 2014). This problem has created a wave of either a nation stands with the West or be anti-West. Many political analysts’ columns in magazines and daily news have provided the opinion of a new Cold war that is on the rise. Saunders (2014) noted that the actions of Putin’s adventures in the Eastern Europe to suggest that such a thing is not only a regional concern but a reflection on the global showdown that is anticipated between the allies and Russia Anti-allies.
Institutions role in the Cold War
The current world order of realism that is driven by the world anarchic, the use of the military power by a bloc or single state outside the United Nations, and the lack of trust across the West and the East poles made the international institutions value insignificant in addressing world issues. Realism is a situation in which state seeks its self-interest over other states with preventing them from reaching to its strong position (Mearsheimer, 2014, p. 9). Mearsheimer further noted that the most powerful states shape the policy of the international institutions to advance their power or keep it (Mearsheimer 2014, p. 13).
In the lenses of the Realists, the cause of war or peace is the result of power balance. NATO is a good institution example of realism that helped the West bloc to win the first Cold War. Although some perceived NATO as one of the drivers for collective security especially after aiding in pushing Iraq out of Kuwait in 1991, others consider NATO as a tool to fulfill the world leader military advancement against other nations (Mearsheimer 2014, p. 29). The change of NATO mission in Libya under UN from civilian protection to overthrowing Gadhafi regime has further made other nations to look for support outside the UN (Zenko, 2016). Also, the US action in Iraq is deemed as a failure of the International Institutions to control or bring the anticipated change. Russia and allies, on the other hand, show little support for any US effort. In fact, according to Leffler (2015), Russia is the last nation to approve any USA-led project, and sometimes the country participates as a dormant party.
The Distrust and Cold World Rise
According to Mearsheimer (1994), the stage of governance of the world society seems to be controlled by the West. This creates mistrust as well as conflict of interest among countries. Mearsheimer suggests that the United Nations have failed to push for its real mandate and to solve conflicts. Instead, the organization functions in the interest of the West hence deemed to operate under a false promise. In this regard, the world leadership seems to have lost to address the real issues that integrate the world to be peaceful (Kozin, 2014).
The uncertainties presented by the different frameworks that nations react to global issues may seem like a minor issue as for now. However, it has been one of the reasons behind the emergence of the Cold War of the past. Here, Uncertainty is the extent of the lack of trust between nations (Medvedev, 2016). For instance, the Western bloc does not trust the Eastern bloc when it comes to dealing with terrorism. In fact, the Western bloc seems to accuse the East of participating in terrorism breeding. The East, on the other hand, accuses the West of undertaking illegitimate activities that directly contributes to failing states allies to the East. Although there is some level of understanding between the two blocs, uncertainty will always be an issue and will broadly contribute to the rise of a new cold war.
In the event of a new Cold War, it is evident that the political stand, economic aspects and the dealing of global issues will likely generate a broader platform for mistrust in the future. The actions of one nation that does not share same ideology with the other will likely create a suspicious scenario where no party will confidently engage with the other party in a free manner. Further, the international media and institution’s failure to control or engage the two blocs into an agreement will ultimately trigger the new Cold War.
Naysayers to Cold War Erupts
Adversely, Naysayers do not take Russia military acts in Georgia, Ukraine or Syria as an enabler for Cold War; rather they see those actions as a weakness for Vladimir Putin. Furthermore, Russia allies do not have a strong common bond. In fact, Russia often considers China as an opponent. Interlay, Russia sees its large Muslim demographics as a threat; thus, it bonds with Iran and Syria is not based on strong factors (Saunders, 2014). Regardless of what the critics say, “Russia is a revisionist power” that can achieve its objectives. NATO admitted their weakness over Russia Military actions has raised the risk on European security.
Liberal Institutionalism and Economic Power
Likely, the Liberal Institutionalism supporters believe that the world is less into the realism formation. The fact most developed states in the world have economic ties that take the advantage as common interest compared to the past; those countries prefer to resolve conflicts through Liberal Institutionalism where all sides “end up better off than they would otherwise be” (Medvedev, 2016, p. 15). However, the Liberal Institutionalism has counterarguments, the existence of the economic ties between Russia and Europe did not prevent Russia from taking military actions in East Europe. In fact, the economic sanctions applied by the West on Russia has shown no influence on Russia, and the approval rate for Putin has increased in Russia by 27% after seizing Crimea “as proof of his righteousness” (Economist, 2016).
Conclusion
The use of military power by two world leaders, the lack of trust across nations, and the use of international or regional institutions as tools to advance the powerful states self-interest present an atmosphere for today’s Cold War. The invasion of Russia to Georgia, Crimea, and Syria on one side and the military action of USA lead alliances in invading Iraq, and Libya unlawfully on the other side set the head-to-head military powers as the one of the drivers for Cold War. Secondly, the distrust across nations due to the cheating and serving self-interest objectives by the world leaders further divided the world between the two poles of the second Cold War (Wade & Wagner, 2012). Lastly, the weakening of the International Institution by the powerful states actions outside the arena of United Nations, and shaping the International Institutions policies to serve their advancement against other states has supported the rise of the Cold War.
On the Other hand, the naysayers do not see the East collision lead by Russia has strong bonds between its members due to conflict of interest and ideology. Also, the Liberal Institutionalism argues that the current world states are more connected through economic relations that take the advantage of realism position. Those arguments have been countered by the fact that Russia has achieved its objectives through military actions, and economic sanction has shown significant impact on it.
References
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Leffler, B. (2015, December 13). Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the West: The next Cold War? - National | Globalnews.ca. Retrieved from http://globalnews.ca/news/2392820/vladimir-putins-russia-and-the-west-the-next-cold-war/
Medvedev, D. (2016, February 13). NATO Threatens Russia, “We are Rolling into A New Cold War.” Speech by Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization. Retrieved from http://www.globalresearch.ca/nato-threatens-russia-we-are-rolling-into-a-new-cold-war-speech-by-russias-prime-minister-dmitri-medvedev-at-2016-munich-security-conference/5507919
Mearsheimer, J. J. (1994). The False Promise of International Institutions. International Security, 19(3), 5. doi:10.2307/2539078
Kozin, V. (2014, November 18). US-NATO’s Cold War 2.0 With Russia. How to Reverse the Tide of Global Warfare? | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization. Retrieved from http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-natos-cold-war-2-0-with-russia-how-to-reverse-the-tide-of-global-warfare/5414440
Saunders, D. (2014, September 28). Five schools of thought about where the world may be headed next - The Globe and Mail. Retrieved from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/five-schools-of-thought-about-where-the-world-may-be-headed-next/article20812161/?page=all
Simha, R. K. (2014, November 30). Why Putin Is Winning The New Cold War? | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization. Retrieved from http://www.globalresearch.ca/why-putin-is-winning-the-new-cold-war/5417041
Wade, W., & Wagner, N. (2012). Scenario planning: A field guide to the future. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Zenko, M.(2016, March 22). The Big Lie About the Libyan War. Retrieved from: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/22/libya-and-the-myth-of-humanitarian-intervention/?wp_login_redirect=0
