Despite pessimistic evidence to the contrary, many people believe that our current episode of global warming is part of a continuing cyclical climatic process that has been occurring for thousands of years and is not caused by humans. This optimistic view is based on selective choices of research by the proponents of the “natural process” scenario and is not necessarily based on the collective global research of climate scientists. The results of this optimistic viewpoint could be that governments fail to take positive action to address the problem of climate change, resulting in our planet becoming uninhabitable.
In discussing the issue of climate change, there appears to be no moderate argument – each side is polarized towards their particular viewpoint. One side of the argument – the optimistic side – provides as evidence the various scientific studies of sediment and ice cores which have revealed evidence of historical climatic fluctuations dating back more than 10,000 years . They also rely on research undertaken by the State Oceanographic Institute, St. Petersburg and King’s College, London which have shown that climate change is part of the process of a natural climatic cycle. However, these scientists have used this data to deny a human influence in climate change, without incorporating any anthropogenic-based data into their models, in contrast to the current scientific understanding that natural forces influence fluctuations in global temperature to only a small degree.
The fact is, that, however pessimistic it may seem, unless the countries of the world take action to reduce global greenhouse (GHG) emissions, Earth will ultimately become too hot to survive on. Scientists globally are now 95% certain that human activities over the last 100 years have caused the planet to grow warmer. The natural phenomenon which keeps the planet warm enough for humans, animals and plants to survive, is known as the Greenhouse Effect. An increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases disturbs the gas balance in the atmosphere, retaining more radiant energy against the surface of the earth, rather than allowing it to escape into space.
In order to assess the potential impact of climate change on the environment, the United Nations convened the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988, and over the following years the IPCC attempted to gain commitments from heads of individual governments on undertaking measures to reduce their respective emissions of greenhouse gases, which are the primary cause of climate change. This was finally achieved in December, 2015 in Paris with the COP21 Climate Change Agreement . Discussion at this conference focused on the many aspects of climate change that would affect the sustainabilty of the various elements of the environment.
The ultimate success of any drive for sustainability must first focus on the current pattern of climate change, and take into consideration all aspects of what that implies, including rises in sea level, disappearance of polar ice, warming of the oceans, changes in precipitation and desertification, and changes in biodiversity and range of species. From the geological record and from scientific observation, it has been discovered that the planet is warming up. This has been cause by increases in greenhouse gas emissions, formed primarily from the burning of the fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas, since the Industrial Revolution . Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons and water vapour. Other than the burning of fossil fuels, human activities have contributed to global warming in other ways. Humans are responsible for the clearing of large tracts of rainforest in order to harvest the trees for timber, or to clear land for cultivation and habitation. This clearing of savannahs and tropical rainforests reduces the region available for earth/atmosphere gas exchange which occurs through rainforests, and also releases some of the carbon pool which is stored in these regions of high temperatures and rainfall .
While there is some evidence that the current period of global warming is part of an entirely natural cycle, the majority of the world’s scientific community, together with hundreds of heads of state, consider that climate change in the last 100 years has been mostly human induced. Although fluctuations in the Earth’s temperatures can be gauged from historical data, current observations have shown that the period of global warming currently being experienced is very different from, and much more severe than, historical cycles. Although this is a most pessimistic outlook for the planet, it is probably the best one from which to launch movements for the future sustainability of Planet Earth.
Works Cited
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United Nations. United Nations Conference on Climate Change. 12 December 2015. <http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/>.
