Abstract
In a recent article for The Atlantic magazine titled “A World Without Work”, Derek Thompson (2015) describes as an impending “era of technological unemployment,” where automation as a result of technological advances will result in a steady and widespread decline in jobs, which Thompson characterizes as permanent. Thompson writes that the end of work does not necessarily signify a full on and impending end to employment as we know it in the economy. Neither does it suggest that the next decade will usher in uncontrollable levels of unemployment, either. What it suggests is the very real and live possibility that technology may in fact be spreading widespread economic destruction in terms of jobs, and that this destruction will not be replaced over the long term. It could introduce a new modality in adult living, where the central idea that employment and one's occupation is the defining feature of adulthood is no longer the essential benchmark for a large and meaningful part of society. (Thompson 2015). This paper discusses this phenomena using two examples, of robotics and machine learning in order to explore its transformative effects on social and economic realities including consumption, education, employment and social interactions.
In Derek Thompson's (2015) article for The Atlantic magazine, he discusses the phenomena of capital and its increasing ability to replace labor as automation grows more and more sophisticated. Thompson foretells a new period in how people work, which he describes as an impending “era of technological unemployment,” where software engineers essentially write scripts and other software programs that produce vast and disparate kinds of artificial intelligence which essentially automate us out of work. (Thompson 2015) The result is a steady and widespread decline in jobs, which Thompson characterizes as permanent.
Thompson writes that the end work does not necessarily signify a full on and impending end to employment as we know it in the economy. Neither does it suggest that the next decade will usher in uncontrollable levels of unemployment, either. What it suggests is the very real and live possibility that technology may in fact be spreading widespread economic destruction in terms of jobs, and that this destruction will not be replaced over the long term. It could introduce a new modality in adult living, where the central idea that employment and one's occupation is the defining feature of adulthood is no longer the essential benchmark for a large and meaningful part of society. (Thompson 2015)
Existing occupations linked to full-time job status will be inadequate in the future if employment trends continue to morph, requiring fewer workers in society to perform menial or basic tasks. Automation's impact in blue collar jobs has already resulted in the displacement of thousands of laborers, particularly in former manufacturing heavy belts of the country. Thompson's article warns that this effect of automation is beginning to make its widespread dent into the world of white collar jobs as well, and this will require a fundamental shift in how we think about and engage ourselves and society.
In this paper, I explore the impact of emerging technologies and consider how they shape our economy today. Emerging technologies pose profound questions for public policy in years to come. For, with the changing nature of the workforce, there is an increasingly differential impact on the contemporary workforce. The changing nature of work today implies that policy makers should consider how best to reconsider the social contract in order to meet the needs of an ever contracting workforce. In today's world, robots and artificial intelligence are no longer the stuff of science fiction, they are all around us. Self-driving vehicles, computerized algorithms, mobile sensors, 3-D technologies are on the bring of transforming human life. A recent study by RBC Global Asset Management reports on the substantial decrease on the costs of automation and in particular on robotic technologies.(Silver 2013) In years prior, the sky-high costs of robots used in industrial settings prevented their widespread use and limited their spread to just a few key industries. But today, as technology has grown more sophisticated and production costs have decreased, robots are becoming more widely available and their technologies adapted to a range of industries. Particularly in Asia, RBC notes that costs of labor compared to robots are converging and the region is finding increased replacement of labor with robotics across a range of industries which include clothing and apparel manufacturing, as well as automobiles and computer production. Today, robots are more and more considered a realistic labor replacement, and it is likely this trend will only grow.
A government funded agency called Defense Advanced Research recently hosted a contest for the design and build of a robot able to function successfully in environments of hazard. (Manyika et al. 2013) The stipulations of the contest required that the robot could successfully perform 8 tasks that included driving a vehicle, opening doors, manipulating a cordless drill, vale turning and stair climbing . The aim for these tasks was to produce a robot able to perform successfully under the harshest of conditions, such as nuclear reactors under duress and life threatening for humans to enter. The winners of this contest were from Korea and they received a combined prize of 2 million United States Dollars for producing a robot who was successful at completing all of these tasks.(Manyika et al. 2013) This specialty robot was considered path breaking, but technological development is quickly catching pace. In today's world, robots able to handle complex tasks, processes and functions are widespread.
A recent history of robots recounts that social robots were introduced in the beginning of the 21st century. These robots exhibited features never seen before, having companionable aspects. These robots often appeared in the form of pet-like creatures such as R2D2 in Star Wars but in the real world known as such with names like AIBO and Paro. Robotics has grown increasingly sophisticated, in couple with the adventt of the smart phone. Consumers have access to several software based robotts that show human like features. One of the major factors that contributes to the sociability of a robot is linguistic processing capability. Robots who can listen to and then actually respond to human speech grow in sophistication. The next terrain in this unknown territory is for robots to be able to detect the emotions underlying human speech and process this layer of communication as well. Robots present a way for cultures to actually interpret and understand each other across linguistic barriers and other forms of implied intention. An example cited in a recent robotics discussion by an athropologist at the Hebrew Univcersity in Jerusalem describes the development of a robot able to improvise jazz musical patterns, and when paired with a full piece functioning jazz band is able to improvise on the same level of sophistication that human musicians are reproducing, in real time. Notably, the human ear, according to research, is unable to distinguish between the jazz robot's musical performance and that of a human counterpart.
Other robot citings have happened in Japan, where a hotel chain now utilizes robots as customer service agents. Named Henn-na, the full service hotel employs robots to check guests in, as well as to escort them to their rooms. (Manyika et al. 2013) These robots are fully functional and fluent in both Japanese and English in order to meet the needs of a wide range of diverse international clientele. The robot is sophisticated enough to arrange reservations, meet and take guests to rooms, and even adjust the room temperature on request. Artificial intelligence also functions successfully in the smart appliances which fill the hotel. In the guest rooms, lighting may be adjusted with voice commands. Concierge questions are immediately responded to in the room as well, such as inquiries about time or weather. (Manyika et al. 2013) Further advents of robotic technology entering the mainstream industry may be found at Amazon, who are currently on the brink of employing robotics through their warehouse operations. Amazon seeks robots to fill orders automatically, by picking the correct item off the shelf and placing it in the appropriate tub. As of now, approximately 50,000 people are employed in Amazon's warehouses for order fulfillment. If this robotic challenge proves successful and remains cost effective, Amazon expects to see significant widespread cost savings by utilizing robot technology in lieu of labor in this area of its business. In its most recent reported competition, a robot from Berlin was able to complete nearly all of the specified tasks required by Amazon management. Amazon currently uses approximately 15,000 robots and has stated publicly that it expects it will increase its use of robots in the years to come.(Manyika et al. 2013)
A second area of automation is happening in use of remote monitoring sensors which are able to fully eliminate the need for human interaction in order to engage and fulfill task completion. These technologies are able to fully automate many processes particularly important in the health care field. Sensors are able to record and analyze vital statistics and then to process and deliver them electronically to physicians in different geographic locations. Medical doctors are able to collect data from sensors from heart patients' monitors which record and compile information related to blood pressure levels and related rates. (Manyika et al. 2013) Doctors may adjust medication according to real time empirical data. These technologies have enabled health care centers to reduce the number of hospital admissions via wireless technologies. (Manyika et al. 2013) Technologies like these are increasingly important to individuals who wish to lead independent lifestyles as long as possible. There are other monitors that may be implanted inside the body as well. One such example is in the form of pulmonary artery measuring which has been found successful at reducing heart attack or failure and hospitalization amongst patients. These technologies are implanted inside the body and communicate from machine to machine in order to deliver the vital statistics and produce warnings or alerts to doctors at appropriate times. Automation is making a dent in required staffing of medical personnel using these technologies, but also more directly. Robots have been introduced into rehabilitation settings which are able to provide aid to recovering patterns, as well as assist in physical therapy functions for patients recovering from total join replacement surgeries. Other robots are employed in old age settings and can provide companionship to elderly persons needing assistance with basic care taking functions such as meal preparation and washing or bathing.
The rapid increase in emerging technologies suggests that they are having a substantial impact on the workforce. Many of the large tech firms have achieved broad economic scale without a large number of employees. Derek Thompson writes that “Google is worth $370 billion but has only about 55,000 employees – less than a tenth the size of AT&T’s workforce in its heyday [in the 1960s].”(Thompson 2015).
The replacement of technological capitol for labor is heightening the fears of many economists and futurists. Worries are increasing over the future status and existence of middle class jobs and more importantly incomes. Technology's tendency to displace job has been a feature of the economy that scientists have been aware of for centuries. The introduction of capital in the basic input equation means that some labor can be reduced in input – but up to a point before decreasing returns set in. It is at this point which is the limit of the technological sophistication. As technological sophistication increases, however, automation across many spheres becomes more and more possible and a reality. The problem that many commentators seem to address, however, is the fact that not only is technology and automation replacing jobs, but it is destroying them and new ones do not seem to be created as replacements. There are now better jobs but the trade off is that these jobs are fewer than before.
If we push the risk of technological acceleration on automation and job loss to its logical limit, the future may look very bleak. For, as technology increases in sophistication, automation may eventually effect the economy in such a drastic way that regular job earned wages will no longer support a large proportion of population members in order to continue the capitalistic economy running in the way it has since, with its reliance on consumer spending in order to generate demand through the circular flow. It is possible that at a point in the future, machines could take over and do the jobs of a huge percentage of what average workers do day in and day out in their lives today. The problem that may come from this, however, is that regular people may not or will not be able to find new jobs, because these new jobs will not be replaced. As free market enterprise firms have realized to greater degrees that artificial intelligence, machine learning and robotics can make significant inroads towards replacing human workmanship, often at a benefit. Robotics offer a sense of precision in their automation which is not subject to the whims of personality or the nuances of mood and its effects of performance. The Recession of 2008 is the most recent economic downturn in which businesses were forced to implement lean systems in order to survive. During this time, mass layoffs occurred across industries and many firms were able to automate some processes which required them to hire even less labor than before once the market turned upwards.
One verifiable way to consider these ideas is to consult the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In their employment data, they release forecasts of future expected employment. Most recently, the agency has predicted that between 2012 and 2022, approximately 15 million new jobs will be created.(BLS 2014) Overall, job growth is expected to increase at about 0.5 percent a year in labor. In health care and social work areas, growth is expected to increase the greatest, at over 2.5 percent a year. In a span of 10 years this would culminate in the addition of 5 million jobs.(BLS 2014) This area comprises nearly a third of all new jobs that are expected to be created over the next 10 years.(BLS 2014) Other areas that are expected to see growth include the areas of construction, leisure, government, education and finance. (BLS 2014) What is interesting is that the technology sector is in fact expected to shrink. Technology is instilling a revolution in many businesses, but it is doing so by changing the way operations occur and it is not increasing jobs. This, therefore, poses one of the fundamental trade offs we see with technology. While it improves efficiency and productivity, it is also inciting creative destruction in economic systems and resulting in job destruction rather than creation over the medium and long term. Automation, therefore, runs the risk of increasing income inequality in society. This may have social consequences as well. For while inequality widens in a society, social relations traditionally tend to grow more hostile. Relations between those at work may grow more divisive and competitive. Meritocratic structures increase the competitive nature in man who is willing to run over the other man in order to reach the finish line first. This can be more tough than pleasant, more unfriendly than friendly, more war like than peaceful and harmonious, more discouraging than encouraging. So we are left to ask ourselves if this automation is leading us to the utopia of world peace on earth or anything remotely resembling this kind of situation or if it is moving us in the opposite direction.
References
Manyika, J., Chui, M., Bughin, J., Dobbs, R., Bisson, P., & Marrs, A. (2013). Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy (Vol. 12). McKinsey Global Institute New York.
Rodgers, M. M., Pai, V. M., & Conroy, R. S. (2015). Recent advances in wearable sensors for health monitoring. Sensors Journal, IEEE, 15(6), 3119–3126.
Silver, B. (2013). THEORISING THE WORKING CLASS IN TWENTY—FIRST—CENTURY GLOBAL CAPITALISM. Workers and Labour in a Globalised Capitalism: Contemporary Themes and Theoretical Issues, 46.
The U.S. Bureau of labor Statistics. (2014). Employment Situation Summary.
Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Thompson, Derek. (2015). A world without work. The Atlantic Monthly. Retrieved from
http://www.jhemingway.net/515_Mats/515_Readings/A%20World%20Without %20Work%20-%20The%20Atlantic.pdf
