Introduction
Cyclones have been affecting populations throughout the world for a very a long time. From Southeast Asia, the Americas, the Western Pacific, and now so often the Island of Madagascar, cyclones have been having a significant influence on people, societies, and nations for centuries. For instance, over the last century alone, tropical storms have affected more than 629 million people and caused an estimated 1.33 million deaths in this timeframe (Doocy, Dick, Daniela, and Kirsch). Whereas the effects of cyclones on humans are widespread and devastating, studies show that this trend is poised to continue due to factors such as increasing coastal destabilization, population growth, accumulative coastal settlement, urbanization, and the effects of climate change and variability (Doocy, Dick, Daniela, and Kirsch). In Madagascar, an Island situated on the east coast of the continent of Africa in the Indian Ocean the situation is no difference. It is the world’s fourth largest island (587,041km2) separated from the African mainland by the channel of Mozambique (OCHA and UNEP). Here, because the country lies within the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), incidences of intense tropical cyclones are no new phenomenon often resulting to higher than normal levels of rainfall, flooding, and storm surges (International Federation of Red Cross [IFRC] and Red Crescent Societies [RCS]).
Moreover, for the reason that the country has inadequate hazard mitigation and disaster preparedness measures, Madagascar feels the force of about 60% of the storms deriving from the South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season that forms over the Indian Ocean every year. Such statistics, although profoundly revealing, in most cases do not capture the full extent of the socio-economic brunt these tropical cyclones leave on the lives of the people they affect especially in poor states like Madagascar (Rabary). However, studies show that improved hazard mitigation measures can not only help Madagascar cope with the effects of Tropical Cyclones but can also help the country forecast and solve the problems. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to review whether an improved hazard mitigation plan can assist the government in resolving the problem and what kind of programs can be included in the achievement of the same. It also provides a brief snippet on why the government has not been able to solve cyclone related issues that have plagued the country for years.
Background
Tropical cyclones in Madagascar like in most other cyclone-prone areas devastates the region and impairs the ability of the community and the government to not only provide the necessities of life to the people but also to salvage whatever remains of its socio-economic fabric (Weyman and Anderson-Berry). Due to lack of the basic life necessities, chaos, and social upheaval can also follow. Besides, there are the immediate effects of loss of lives and damage to property and the long-term consequences such as the breakdown of community support systems, loss of business revenue, communication failures, and transportation letdowns (Weyman and Anderson-Berry). For example, when the category three and four cyclone Fame and Jokwe hit the Capital Antananarivo in 2008, more than 342, 000 people of the 19 million residents were affected. Among the victims, 100 died while an estimated 191,404 lost their homes (Government of Madagascar, The United Nations [UN], and The World Bank).
In another incident on January 5, 2015, when tropical cyclone Chezda hit, the preliminary assessment by the Malagasy Red Cross (CRM) revealed that 80,000 people were affected, and 68 people died (IFRC and RCS). The subsequent report after the disaster further showed that 173, 970 people were affected, 80 dead, and 9 missing (Disaster Response Emergency Fund [DREF] as cited in IFRC and RCS). Economically, the 2015 cyclones trimmed the country’s economic growth down to 5.0% to 3.4% (Rabary). Even though it is not unusual for the country to be struck by cyclones, the frequency of the incidences (at least three to four) in an average per year puts all the 22 regions of the island at severe environmental, human, policy, and socio-economic risks. (Government of Madagascar, United Nations (UN), and The World Bank). Given that studies show that the country will continue to be at risk for tropical cyclones and these weather occurrences stand to increase in intensity and severity in the future, there is a need for improved hazard mitigation plans and disaster preparedness measures.
There are several reasons why the government of Madagascar has not been able to solve these cyclone – related problems. However, the socio-economic status of the country is perhaps one of the topmost reasons for the failure. On the count, Madagascar has experienced more than 28 cyclones in the recent times. These include cyclone Albera, Giovanna, Tropical Storm Hubert, Hudah, and Chedza just to name but a few. According to IFRC and RCS, Madagascar has historically been hit by tropical cyclones because of its inability to lay down adequate mitigation and response infrastructure due to it being one of the poorest nations (Rabary). This lack of financial and technological muscle has robbed the country the ability to deal with this problem as required. Its inability to attract foreign infrastructural and policy development has also been instrumental in deterring the nation from adequately addressing the issue (Rabary). Moreover, socio-political instability in the recent past has served to cripple any progress made on that front (Rabary).
The after-effects of the 2008 triple cyclone disaster can best demonstrate the extent of the impacts of these natural hazards on Madagascar. The comprehensive damage and loss report in the wake of the catastrophe estimated the loss at the tune of (US$ 333.0 million) with worst hit areas being the livestock, fisheries, and the agricultural sectors (US$ 103.0 million) (Government of Madagascar, United Nations (UN), and The World Bank). Other areas that were severely affected included the housing and public administration and the transport sectors at U$ 127.6 million and US$ 45.7 million respectively. However, the most hit regions were on the eastern coast of the country in locations such as Analanjirofo and Atsinanana. Still, the damages spilled to areas like Menabe, Alaotra, Boeny, Atsimo Atsinanana, and Sofia (Government of Madagascar, United Nations (UN), and The World Bank).
While the country has existing hazard mitigation policies and plans, the measures as they relate to tropical cyclone hazards has not been as effective as those in developed nations as the United States (Weyman and Anderson-Berry). Here several organizations such as the Malagasy Red Cross Society (CRM) and the Malagasy Disaster Management Office in conjunction with other government and non-governmental agencies play significant roles in initiating and conducting hazard mitigation response and awareness initiatives (Government of Madagascar, United Nations (UN), and The World Bank). Nevertheless, new comprehensive and improved risk mitigation plans need to be instituted to help the already existing mitigation infrastructure. For the new scheme to properly work, it will necessitate the inclusion of some key elements. Firstly, the mitigation plan will need to prioritize risk reduction (prevention efforts) to offset the annual disaster-related expenses that frequently almost approach US$330 million per disaster (Government of Madagascar, United Nations (UN), and The World Bank).
Secondly, the plan needs to not only develop but also institute selected key areas to reduce socio-economic and human risks in the event of the tropical cyclones. These priorities areas include the development of Cyclone Norms and Standards and strengthen the country’s early warning and disaster preparedness. The integration of the risk management into the country’s national education and public sensitization programs will also be taken into account (Government of Madagascar, United Nations (UN), and The World Bank). At the bottom of the hazard mitigation plan should lie a platform mechanism of raising awareness regarding the impending disaster and workable plan for resident evacuation. After the event, the new mitigation plan should provide guidelines for immediate means for conducting search and rescue operations and the provision of first aid services to the victims. The plan should also spell strategies for mobilizing and conducting rescue personnel as well training on the same.
Conclusion
While most could argue that the government of Madagascar is doing the best to mitigate the effects of cyclones in the country, more is still required to help curb the effects. A new policy dispensation that includes the pertinent elements as discussed in the paper is required. This new mitigation plans will not only reduce the negative socioeconomic and human impacts cyclones have historically had on the people of Madagascar, but it will also help in disaster forecasting and preparedness. In this context, this paper has highlighted the impacts of cyclones on Madagascar and provided some of the primary reasons why the government has not been in a position to address the issue adequately. Lastly, the paper presents possible hazard mitigation plan and some of the key elements it should include.
Works Cited
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Government of Madagascar, United Nations (UN), and The World Bank. Damage, Loss, and Needs Assessment for Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction after the 2008 Cyclone Season in Madagascar. Antanarivo: Government of Madagascar, 2008. Print.
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Weyman, James C., and Linda J. Anderson-Berry. "Societal Impacts of Tropical Cyclones." Fifth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones. Honolulu James Cook University. Web. 8 Apr. 2016. <http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/iwtc/AndersonBerry5-1.html>.
