Questions
1) Construction of the pyramid for the year 2006 and 2036 respectively
2006
5 years Age Group
2036
5 Years Age Group
2) Median Age for the year 2006 for both males and females
The median ages for the 5 year groups in the year 2006
For Males and Females:
The sum of the ages is an even number, Hence the median will be sum of the two middle numbers then you divide by 2
= 45+46
2
= 92/2
=45.5
= 46 is the median age for single years for the year 2006 for both males and females which is the same with the population median of 2036.
3) Interpretation of the population pyramids
2006
In the year 2006 the population for both males and females has an increasing trend from the time of birth. Although the graphical representation indicate that females number is a bit higher than that of the males. They both have an upward trend in population for the grouped for the year 2006.
For males, the increasing population trend is portrayed in between the age groups of 0-4 and 15-19. From which, there is a decline in the population between the age group of 20-24 and 30-34. After which there is again a continuous upward trend in between the age group of 30-34 and 60-64, where the population has again accumulated with the progress in years. From this point there is no increase but decrease with increase in the number of years. That is from the age of 60-64 to 90+ the population is decreasing continuously with increasing age.
Unlike the males, the females too have an increasing trend in population with increase in the number of age between the age groups 0-4 and 10-14. From the age groups of 15-19 and 35-39, there is a decrease in the number of females in population with increasing age. After which from the age group of 40-44 and 55-59 there is increase in the population with increasing age but somehow constant between the populations of 10700 and 11700. The range isn’t too large in between the age groups.
2036
In the year 2036, for males there is a similarity in the early years of growth for both 2006 and 2036 where there is an increasing population with increase in age for the age groups 0-4 and 15-19. In between the age of 20-24 and 40-44, there is a trend of decreasing population with increase in age, unlike the 2006 data, the decreasing age between these age groups ended at 30-34 of age groups. This means that there is a change in trend in population of the males in between the population of 20-24 and 30-34 of 2006 and 20-24 and 40-44 of 2036.
After which there is an increase in population in between the age group 40-44 and 75-79. This shows a large disparity between these age groups and that of 2006, where the increasing population with increasing age trend stopped at the age group of 60-64.
After this in between the age group of 80-84 and 90+ there is a similarity in both 2006 and 2036 where with increasing age there is a decrease in population.
In the case of females, much has not changed with the graphical representation of 2006, in 2036; similar to 2006 the early growth has a trend of increasing population with increasing age. That is, in between the age of 0-4 and 10-14. As illustrated in the pyramid, the females have a decreasing population with increasing age; this is illustrated in between the age group of 15-19 and 35-39, similar to that in the year 2006. The year 2036 experienced some dissimilarity with the 2006 data, where the age group between 40-44 and 75-79, there is an increasing population with increasing age and the age group has expanded from the group of 55-59 to the group of 75-79 that has shown the increasing trend in population. After which between the age group 80-84 and 90+ there is a decreasing population with increasing age. This trend is similar to both females and males for the year 2006 and 2036.
Demographic Variable
Demography is the study of human population while demographic variables are the factors that influence the human population to either decrease or increase. It is a discipline that sorts the magnitude and composition of the inhabitants’ i.e. movement of people from one place to another. Some include;
Fertility
Fertility refers to the number of offspring a normal woman bears in between puberty and menopause. The number of population is majorly determined by this. In the Mid-North Coast, the population was contributed majorly by the fertility level whereby the numbers of children bearded by women are the same population who move transits from one age group to another.
Fertility is always influenced by fecundity. This is the number of children an average woman is gifted of bearing and is constantly influenced by such factors as physical condition, finance, and individual decision which affects this case.
This explains the trend in the increasing population from birth which possibly shows the increasing trend of population in the early years of growth for both data in 2006 and 2036 respectively. Fertility determines the general population of the Mid-North Coast for the whole years.
Mortality
Mortality is the number of deaths that have occurred in a nation. In the Mid-North Coast, the decreasing trend of the population with increasing age for the population groups of 20-24 and 40-44 of the years might have been coursed by the death rates which could have been two high in this age group could have been coursed by the mortality rate in this region a side other factors. Beside the mortality, the life expectancy ratio of the people of the Mid-North Coast might have contributed to the low population with the age of 80+. This explains why despite other factors influencing the population, there is a certain percentage of the population which goes beyond 80+ of age though they are a few and their population decreases with the increasing age in the group.
Migration
Migration affects the population size; this is because it describes the movement of people from one locale to another. The migration of people can be involuntary and voluntary. The voluntary migration might be as a result of the immigration of people i.e. slaves from one place to another while the voluntary migration is the movement of people from one place to another i.e. with a reason e.g. the migration of people from the rural to urban areas and vice versa.
The increasing and decreasing population of the Mid-North Coast might have been caused by the immigration and the emigration of people into and out of the Mid-North Coast.
median age
The median age is being influenced by all these demographic variables. They are the major determinant of the outcome of the variable i.e. the migration, mortality, fertility and the socio-economic variables influences the median age of the population.
Socio-economic variables
Housing
Depending on the housing style that is in an area, it will affect the population of a place. This is because, some people might not be satisfied with the kind of housing in Mid-North Coast hence they decided to look for other places that offers conducive housing foe them. This also could have increased the increasing and decreasing trend in Mid- North Coast population and the differences and similarities that exist of the years.
Employment/Occupation
Depending on the nature of one’s occupation, he/she can make a decision to migrate or emigrate in Mid-North Coast. So it to the employment, it always causes the major movement of people and as a result, the decreasing and the increasing population with age in the Mid-North Coast for both 2006 and 2036.
Unemployment
The status of a person can cause one to move or stay in Mid-North Coast, this is because they are looking for means of livelihood. Hence, this could have caused the disparity in the population of certain age groups and the increase in other.
Climate
This is an environmental factor that might affect once occupation e.g. a farmer. Depending on his/her income or source of income which is under the influence of the climate, he/she might decide to move out or come in to satisfy this need. Hence, the decreasing and increasing of population with increasing age might have been influenced by the climatic factors.
Education
This might have caused the major decreasing in population with increasing age of the age group between 15-19 and 35-39. This is because; at this time is when most of the young adults are being prepared to be responsible adult by the education system. This will influence their movement from one place to another.
4) Business and Local Area Demography
Based on the information available, a business which is most suitable for Mid-North Coast is a Family Town House, unlike the Old Timers retirement village and young fitness center. I would encourage this kind of business idea because, Despite the population increase or decrease of a certain age, there are always families who would want to live on these residential houses. The life expectancy of the Mid- North Coast is not assured of the availability of old people as clients to the Old Timers retirement village, but the family town house, the few old people will be accommodated by their families living with them
An investment on the young fitness center is a bit risky because at this age group is where there is the tremendous decrease in the population of the Mid-North Coast. Hence, allowing such a business idea won’t be reliable with the situation at Mid-North Coast.
Based on this recommended business, it would satisfy such demographic variables as mortality rate by reducing it. Hence, the business of family town house will be lucrative because of the available accommodation from the family town house.
5) Estimating Local Population Dynamics
a) Calculate the population size in 30th June 2026 and 30th June 2036.
i. (Pt = P0. ert)
P0. = 296,851
R=0.9/100
= 0.009
T=10 years
Pt = 296,851e^0.009x20
= 296,851x 1.18
= 350,284 for the year 2026
ii. Po = 296,851
T=30 years
R=0.9
Pt= (350,284 x0.009x30)
=377,000 for the year 2036
Calculate the year in which population size will be double
If Pt = 2P0
Pt/P0=In (2) = rt
= ln (2)
r
r = 0.009
= 4.2 years
5
b)
(Pt = a + b.t)
2026
Mid-North Coast Pt = (296.01 + 3.057 t) x 1,000
(296.01 + 3.057x 20) x1, 000
= 357,150
2036
(296.01 + 3.057x30) x1, 000
= 387,720
6) Index of dissimilarity
The index dissimilarity between the indigenous and the non indigenous population is
= Non indigenous - Indigenous
= 4,234,811- 47,177
= 4,187,634
This means that the difference that the population in Sydney is much of the non indigenous population than the indigenous. This means that the inhabitants of this place are people who have emigrated from other places to come and live in Sydney. Hence, the characteristics of this population is that the non indigenous population are far much larger that the indigenous population of Sydney.
The decree of population might be explained that a lot of the demographic and socio-economic variables might have affected the indigenous population of Sydney for the non indigenous population to be that high than the indigenous population of Sydney.
References
Poston, D. &. Population and Society: An Introduction to Demography. New York: Cambridge University Press. ( 2010)
Preston, S.. Demography: measuring and modeling population processes. Chicago: Wiley-Blackwell. ( 2001)
Sharma, R. Demography and Population Problems. New York: Atlantic Publishers & Dist.
( 2004)
