Management Career Decision Making: Quinn
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Executive Summary
Quinn is trying to determine if doing his Ph. D. and setting up a business in leadership mentoring and coaching will allow him to achieve his goal of earning $200,00 per year, paying his two kids’ college tuitions and traveling around the world. His alternative is to continue on the basis of his two Masters degrees and try to reach a senior executive position. Through the use of decision-making tools, this paper seeks to help Quinn in deciding how best he can achieve his goals without taking on undue risk and possibly affecting his family.
Introduction
Quinn is at a career crossroad and is trying to determine if he should go in for a Ph.D. and ultimately start his own practice coaching and mentoring mid to senior level executives. The alternative is to continue with his two Master’s degrees and try to attain a senior executive level position.
His key objectives are to earn more than $200,000 per year, travel around the world and pay in cash for his two kids’ college education.
Quinn needs to decide if taking a break from his career in order to complete his Ph. D. will provide the right opportunities for his chosen career and financial goals to be achieved. After completing his Ph. D. he plans to work for a leadership development firm for a few years and then start his own practice in the area of leadership coaching and mentoring. He is not sure if the setting up of the business will get him the needed monetary rewards to fulfill his goals.
Quinn has two primary alternatives, each further leading to alternative situations. The questions that he faces are:
1. Should he go in for his Ph.D. in order to set up his own business or should he continue to try for an executive position?
2. In case he goes for the Ph. D. what is the likelihood that he will succeed? What happens if he does not?
3. In case he continues to try for a senior executive position, but achieves a junior or mid-level management position, what will be the extent of his achievements?
4. How will each of these scenarios affect his earnings, his ability to fund his kids’ college education and his dream of traveling around the world?
Evaluation of Alternatives
For Quinn, the alternatives are as follows:
- If he does his Ph. D. and business succeeds
- If he does his Ph. D and business is slow
- If he does not do his Ph. D and instead rises to a senior executive position
- If he does not do his Ph. D and becomes a senior level manager
- If he does not do his Ph. D. and becomes a mid-level manager
The scenarios for each of these situations have been defined in the probabilities and the returns likely to be achieved in the form of his earnings per year.
If the business is slow (0.8 probability) he will earn less than $100,000 per year. In this situation, he cannot achieve any of his goals.
If the business succeeds (0.2 probability) he will earn $200,000 per year and achieve all his goals.
If he becomes a senior level executive, he will earn more than $150,000 per year and achieve most of his goals with a few life style changes.
If he becomes a senior level manager (0.75 probability), he will earn more than $100,000 per year but will have to take student loans for his kids and restrict his holidays.
If he becomes a mid-level manager (0.25 probability), he will earn $100,000 per year and will not achieve any of his goals.
This can be depicted in the form of a decision tree shown below. Decision trees are a simple, but powerful form of multiple variable analyses (Berry and Linoff, 1997).
Image 1: Decision tree
Uncertainties
The key uncertainties that Quinn faces stem from each side of the decision.
The first uncertainty is if the business will be successful. Here, a lower probability of success will be likely, since it is difficult for a first time business to set up and be successful in a short period of time. Therefore, the likelihood of success is low (0.2 probability)
If Quinn continues with his two Masters degrees, the uncertainty he faces is whether he will succeed in becoming a senior executive in the near future. The likelihood of his reaching a senior manager level position is higher given his experience and qualifications, and that is reflected by the higher probability (0.75).
However, each of these also has an impact on his specific goals – to earn above $200,000 per year, to pay for his kids’ college education and to travel around the world. Since the latter two goals stem from the first, each of Quinn’s goals has been assigned a weightage in accordance of that fact.
Earning $200,000 – 0.5
Paying for kids’ college – 0.25
Traveling around the world – 0.25
Based on these priority weightages, the following scoring model is drawn up.
Image 2: Weighted averages
Consequences
If Quinn does not achieve his goal of earning $200,000 per year, it will impact his ability to realize his other goals as well. Keeping this in mind, we look at the following scenarios likely to develop.
- Earns $200,000 – He can easily pay his kids college tuition and travel the world, working on his own and at his convenience
- Earns $150,000+ - He can pay his kids college tuition, but may not be able to travel the world, but may be able to travel one or two times a year, with some lifestyle changes.
- Earns less than $150,000 – He will have to go in for student loans for his kids’ college tuitions, but can pay them off later. Travel plans will have to be cancelled.
- Earns less than $100,000 – He will have to go in for student loans which his kids will have to pay off themselves. No travel plans will be possible.
In order to achieve the desired outcome, a combination of the behavioral and mathematical factors is required, to give a better prediction for success (Clemen and Winkler, 1999).
Selection
Based on the scenarios created, the following points are clear:
- Quinn would like to complete his Ph. D.
- He wants to earn $200,000 per year
- He would like to pay for his kids’ college tuitions
- He may not be able to set up a successful business
- He is likely to get promoted if he stays in a job that he likes, which is leadership training.
Therefore, the most rewarding scenario would be for Quinn to complete his Ph. D. and join a firm that specializes in leadership training. There, he has the opportunity to rise up the ranks to a senior executive position, due to his qualifications and his interest in that field of work. He is therefore more likely to achieve close to his best scenario, i.e. earn more than $150,000 per year and pay for his kids’ college tuitions, but not be able to travel the world. This is reflected in the score of 62.5 as seen in the calculations.
Even if he does not reach a senior executive level but remains at a senior manager position (score 60.4), there will be only minor impact on his kids’ education. However, with the Ph. D. he is likely to be more successful and can expect a good rise in pay. He can put off setting up his own business during the time that his kids are in college, and once their education is complete, he will have the additional experience, contacts and the qualifications, as well as the financial freedom to set up his own business.
At that point of time, even if his business does not succeed, he can work on his business without affecting his kids’ education. The only impact will be on his lifestyle. For this, he will have to start saving early, to put aside money for his business. This may entail a few lifestyle changes early in his career after the Ph. D. but the saved funds will be useful at a later date.
This decision is based on the existing scenario, and with the assumption that the economic conditions during the period from now till the time Quinn completes his Ph. D. will remain stable or positive. The worst case scenario may result only in the case of a poor economic scenario, which would restrict Quinn’s opportunities to get promoted. However, with his Ph. D. and relevant experience, he should be able to do well in spite of such setbacks.
Implementation
Since Quinn is choosing to go for his Ph. D. the following steps will have to be taken by him to ensure that the decision is a success:
- Start saving for his kids’ education needs from now, so that he has a substantial fund saved up by the time they are in college.
- Initiate lifestyle changes from now to increase the quantum of savings from an early stage.
- Monitor and keep track of developments in his chosen field so that he can work on an area that will be very much in demand and rewarding when he completes his Ph. D. This will increase the likelihood of getting a well-paying job
- Network with people from his chosen field to keep them informed about his area of expertise and to tap into any opportunities that might arise when he is ready to look for a job after his Ph. D.
- Look for opportunities to mentor and train mid-level executives at a consultant level, and learn from the experience as well as build a network of contacts.
- Set monetary goals for earnings, savings and investments for the next few years until the time his kids reach college age. This will help him plan well for their future.
Monitoring
A significant change in lifestyle will be called for during the interval when Quinn is looking to complete his Ph. D. For this, he will need the assistance and support of his family in monitoring the milestones and goals laid down and making sure they are achieved in the course of time. He needs to set up a review mechanism for every three months, to ensure that he is on track to reach his goals. Every quarter, he should check his financial and professional achievements against the goals set, and take corrective action where necessary. By doing this, a disciplined approach to achieving his goals will be maintained and Quinn is more likely to be successful in both his career and business.
Control
Quinn will have to get someone outside his family to track and monitor his progress, and mentor him when required. By keeping limits on spending habits of family members and himself, and making lifestyle changes early, Quinn will be able to give his kids the college education they deserve without having to worry about the liabilities or the impact on his financial status. This will allow him to pursue his career objectives in a more focused manner and build up the confidence and the expertise to ultimately launch his own business, should he decide to do so once his kids’ education is complete.
Conclusion
Quinn is taking a decision to improve his career and professional growth, by going for his Ph. D. In order for him to be successful in meeting his goals, he needs to take a calculated low risk decision that will have the least impact on the future of his kids, as he needs to be able to pay for their education. He would also like to be able to travel around the world. This is a goal that he can achieve by planning well. By going in for his Ph. D., Quinn will improve his likelihood of getting to a senior executive position, and once his kids have completed their college education, he will be able to decide whether to launch his own business. By properly evaluating the probabilities and risks involved with each step of the decision making process, we are able to suggest the best possible solution for Quinn to achieve his goals.
References
Berry MJ and Linoff G (1997) Data Mining Techniques, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York, NY, USA
Clemen, RT and Winkler, RL (1999) Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis, Risk analysis, April 1999, Volume 19, Issue 2, pp 187-203
