The 2016 presidential election is shaping up to be a historic contest to decide the successor to Barack Obama. Currently, Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party while Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. So far, this election cycle has been eventful regarding the process of the primary system and comments made by both candidates. There is still over five months before voters will cast their ballots and there will be twists and turns to this political narrative. However, here are some hot button issues will shape the rest of the race for the coming months.
The first hot button issue that faces both candidates is their perception of the voters. This election cycle is historic because it features the two candidates with the highest unfavorable ratings. Based on current RealClearPolitics polling, Hillary Clinton has a net unfavorable rating of over fifty percent, while Donald Trump is nearing a net unfavorable rating close to sixty percent (2016). It will be interesting to see if either candidate can improve on these numbers. Both presumptive nominees are running predominantly negative ad campaigns classifying their opponent as being unfit for the office of president. Whichever candidate can improve on these numbers will significantly increase their chances of becoming the next President of the United States.
Another issue that both candidates have to deal with is their impending legal battles. Hillary Clinton is currently under investigation by the FBI over her use of a private email server and her handling of top secret government emails. Donald Trump also has a legal battle of his own. His Trump University is facing a lawsuit over whether his company defrauded its student of their tuition and did not provide an adequate education. The result of both of these legal cases could shape the presidential election and force other candidates to run for their respective parties.
The first electoral college hot button platform-related issue is minorities and immigration. During the Republican primary, Donald Trump focused the majority of his platform on building a wall along the United States-Mexico border to curb illegal immigration into the United States. During his stump speeches, Trump often used inflammatory language while describing Mexican-Americans. Trump also proposed a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States in response to terror attacks in San Bernardino, California earlier this year. This message resounded with the majority of the Republican electorate and could be a major factor in his success in the primary. Now, Trump is doubling down on his platform and continuing to make comments about Mexican-Americans. As the presidential race enters the general election phase, many people are interested in whether Mr. Trump will continue to profess these views or will he try to pivot from the rhetoric that earned him the Republican nomination.
The next major electoral college issue is the economy. Donald Trump has had success as a businessman and is looking to bring his business expertise to the public realm. He claims he can create jobs and bring them back to America from overseas. Hillary Clinton is running on many of the same economic policies that Barack Obama currently has in is administering. During the Democratic primary, Clinton received criticism for her role in promoting NAFTA, a trade agreement in the 1990’s that resulted in the loss of American jobs. Currently, the economy is still recovering from the recession but, progress is slowing down. Depending on how the economy fares in the next five months, voters will decide if they will keep the status quo or elect a candidate with a new economic perspective.
There are many factors that voters will use to choose the next President of the United States of America. Four important factors that could influence voters in the next several months are the candidates’ favorability ratings, their impending legal battles, immigration, and the economy. Using the National Archives and Records Administration’s Electoral College calculator someone can predict the outcome of the election; as it stands, it appears the Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States of America (2016). It will be interesting to see how these predictions will fare in November based on changes in these hot-button issues.
References
National Archives and Records Administration. (2016). United States Electoral College Prediction Calculator. Retrieved from http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/map/predict.html#states=mqGGpliGBhqCmqBlGl
Real Clear Politics. (2016). [Favorable/Unfavorable ratings for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump] Real Clear Politics Polls. Retrieved from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
