Abstract
Over population has become a major worldwide issue in the past decades. Industrialization and modernization are deemed as major reasons for such anomalous variation. This essay discusses the reasons as to why over population will become a major issue in the future, and presents proof of how the trends like migration, over filling of larger cities and diminishing resources have already began showing signs of what lies in the future ahead.
Introduction
The present population of earth is more than 6 billion people (World Population Review, 2013). They belong to innumerable categories, divided through borders, sects, cultures, societies, and religions. However, there is one simple issue that strikes a common chord; their survival, their prosperity and growth. As quoted in a study by Jill Moss in 2013, by the year 2050, the population is expected to reach a round figure of nine billion. Experts on population suggest that a majority of this growth will come from developing countries of South Asia, Latin America and Africa. Population of Africa, for instance, is expected to become twice, to approximately two billion, and Southern Asia shall have added another billion people in the succeeding 50 years. (Moss, 2013) As population grows exponentially in developing countries, a contrasting effect takes place in the industrialized developed nations; it falls (Myrskyla, Kohler and Billari, 2009). Such variations in population growth have raised debates among researchers and population experts. Questions are being asked, for example, on how poor countries could cater to their ever increasing populations as dearth, malnourishment and low health related services or in what manner would migration impact already over populated industrial cities, remain huge unsorted problems. Either ways it will be the resources, especially energy distribution in the form of both renewable and non-renewable resources that will become a fighting issue all over the globe in the near future (Lindsay, 2001).
Discussion
It is speculated that entire of the world’s population growth will occur in cities of the developing nations and by the year 2030 sixty per cent of the world’s population is expected to be living in industrialized cities (Demeny and McNicoll, 2003). In the following ten years, demographic experts have estimated that there would be 25 industry based cities populated by more than 10 million people in each. India faces the growing problem of relocation of people from rural areas to upcoming metropolitan cities of India. New Delhi, the Indian capital and Mumbai, the Indian financial capital are expected to be amongst the largest and most populous cities of the world, as more households migrate from towns and villages to look for better livelihood. Environmental experts raise concerns over the evolution of social pressures and pitiable living conditions that these mega-cities have, and how these huge and constantly growing cities generally lack effective education, health care and transportation systems; while adding to the concern are the facts that as these mega-cities expand, they take over neighbouring farming lands on the outskirts (Lindsay, 2001).
According to population experts, these problems are severe in cities like Mumbai. Nearly 50% of Mumbai’s population, approximately 15 million people, lives in slums, which have description of utmost pity (Demeny and McNicoll, 2003). Poorly built houses in close proximity, lack of clean water and absence of proper waste removal systems are characteristics of such slums, giving an evidence of poor living conditions. Disease spreads very fast with people living in such close proximity as chances of contamination through agents, like pests, water etc. increases (Lindsay, 2001). Indian officials have a hard time trying to deal with problems related to slums and slum dwellers, and they agree that it is a difficult task to face, when a probable 200 families’ moves into cities like Mumbai each day. Hence, major concern of the day for India is not the industrialization of already highly populated cities, rather it is the over population of the region, which causes problems of low sustainability, lack of livelihood, and forces individuals to migrate to industrialized parts.
China has been declared as the world’s most populated nation, with nearly 1.3 billion people as citizens (Demeny and McNicoll, 2003). China also faces economic problems connected to large population and its growth (Deng et al, 2006). To deal with these problems the administrative officials put a firm family planning policy in place that restricts parents to have only one child. As a direct consequence, China has gradually achieved one of the lowest population growth rates amongst Asian countries, which amounts to 1.4 per cent a year (World Population Review, 2013). Keeping this in mind the population can be expected to increase to 1.5 billion people in a span of 15 years, after which it may begin to decline (Demeny and McNicoll, 2003). The Chinese claim that their one-child policy has led to increased rate of economic growth. However, some population experts believe that China has created for itself an unstable economic future. With decreased births and an already expanded industrialization and development, soon lesser number of people will enter the Chinese workforce in coming years, but, a larger group of people aged over 65 years will demand retirement pensions. Hence a smaller workforce could have adverse effects on the economy. It is also believed that China’s one-child policy has had other effects on the country in other aspects. The Chinese society is prejudiced towards sons over daughters and it is not uncommon for some parents to choose to abort a pregnancy if the foetus is found to be a girl. This directly indicates that more boys in comparison to girls are born, as a consequence, authorities estimate nearly 40 million of the Chinese men would not be able to find women for marriage within the span of next 14-15 years (Deng et al, 2006). These conditions, some experts fear, may lead to kidnappings and more flesh trade and human trafficking of women. China, therefore, has already begun to show the adverse effects of over population, leading the Chinese administration to take desperate measures to control the growth of this population without putting much consideration into the long term effects of it (World Population Review, 2013).
United States of America can be taken as the only industrialized nation that experienced increase in population in the last ten years. Population increased from two sixty three million to three hundred million in the previous year (Demeny and McNicoll, 2003). American populace increases at a rate of approximately 1.0 percent per year. 40 percent of this growth can be connected with immigration between states as shown in the study of World Population Review, 2013. In the same study population experts have found that a majority of these immigrants preferred settling in cities like New York, Los Angeles, California and some other similar cities. Authorities raise concerns regarding the increase in frequency of immigrants settling down in major cities of America. The reason for worry is that how educational and health care machinery will deal with this exponential and irregular population increase. Children of parents, with recent migrations, often face difficulties in public schools where lessons are imparted in English (Moss, 2013). Much like China, US face adverse effects of over population and the lacking infrastructure to overcome this problem.
European administrations face an entirely different issue related to immigration and population growth. The European population is aging at a rate faster than most of the other part of the world, with the exception of Japan (World Population Review, 2013). Birth rate has decreased in a large number of European countries. Europe is about to see the phenomenon of rise in number of people dependent upon the workers as numbers of workers drops. Experts say expenditure in Europe may increase for retired individuals, on their health care and long-term care in the future.
As population growth rates drop in almost all of the industrialized countries, natal rates are said to be the highest in Africa in the world and is estimated that by the year 2050, twenty per cent of the world’s complete populace will be concentrated in Africa (Lindsay, 2001). The figure is a staggering approximation of two 2 billion individuals, up from 855 million people in the present day (World Population Review, 2013). Large growth of population is expected in countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Somalia and Uganda (Moss, 2013). Population experts warn that overpopulation will eventually place extra pressure on already pressed economies of African nations, which struggle to afford even the basest of public services.
Over population is rather a major issue in comparison to industrialization of overly populated countries (Moss, 2013). Industries provide employment and opportunities for growth and development, but an already over populated economy cannot function ideally if the issue of over population is not addressed first. The resources that an industry may provide can be well utilized and well distributed if the demanding consumer numbers are comparable to the production rate of these resources (Bell, 2008). Otherwise, no matter what degree of advancement and industrialization an over populated country may achieve, it can never completely meet the demands of its population, leading to newer problems.
Population experts, however say that family planning programs may be one of the answers to over population. The remedy should begin at the grass root level, at the families and individuals who make decisions regarding the families. The government should offer free birth regulatory services to the people and should also take initiative of increasing the legal age of marriage from fourteen years old for girls (Bell, 2008). More importantly, these reforms need to be implemented world-wide effectively.
Conclusion
Population estimates for the future may prove to be incorrect. However, it cannot be ruled out that poor nations will face strong pressure from population growth in the future. It is already a struggle for such countries to provide services and resources to their present populace, and the aging of population is the truth for many industrialized nations. Hence, both industrialization and densely populated countries face dilemmas in the future, if corrective measures are not taken presently. Extensive actions are required and many aspects need to be weighed and scrutinized before a definitive remedy may be reached upon.
Never the less it is very clear that the current problem that the world faces is over-population and shortage of resources, which must be dealt with first, as survival depends entirely upon the availability and proper implementation of resources (Lindsay, 2001).
References
Bell, Hannah (June 16, 2008); Overpopulation, & Its Remedy: OR: an Inquiry into the Extent & Causes; Democratic Underground.com; http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3461446 retrieved 27 July, 2013
Demeny, Paul; McNicoll, Geoffrey ed. (2003). Encyclopaedia of Population 2. Macmillan Reference, ISBN 0-02-865677-6. http://elearning.zaou.ac.zm:8060/3%20-%20Encyclopedia%20Britannica%201911/; retrieved July 25, 2013
Deng, Xiangzheng; Huang, Jikun; Rozelle, Scott; Uchida, Emi (December, 2006) Growth, Populations and Industrialization and Urban Land Expansion of China, Journal of Urban Economics; Stanford University; Journal Article; http://aparc.stanford.edu/publications/growth_population_and_industrialization_and_urban_land_expansion_of_china; Accessed July 26, 2013
Lindsay, Heather E. (March, 2001); Global Population Growth; Environmental Policy Issues; ProQuest.com; http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/ern/01mar/overview.php; Retrieved July 25, 2013
Moss, Jill (July 25, 2013) Population Growth is Dropping in Industrialized Nations and Increasing in Some Developing Ones; VOA Learning English; Voice Of America News and Information Websites; http://learningenglish.voanews.com/content/a-23-2006-04-18-voa3-83128752/125784.html; retrieved July 25, 2013
Myrskyla, M; Kohler, H-P; Billari, F (August 6, 2009), "Advances in development reverse fertility declines", Nature 460, doi: 10.1038/nature08230 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/full/nature08230.html; retrieved June 26, 2013
World Population Review (2013) Population of the world 2013; World Population Review; http://worldpopulationreview.com/; Retrieved July 28, 2013
