Challenges and Most Effective Measures in Feeding Such a Rapidly Expanding Population
The total number of humans on Earth is extremely increasing. The medicine and healthcare development provided an opportunity to lessen the rates of death in 19th and 20th centuries which led to significant grown of population. The population of Earth has already beaten the record of 7 billion and, according to UN projections, 11 billion is expected in 2100 due to high rate of birth in Africa. Other researches state that 9 billion is possible in 2100 and then the rate of birth will be stabilized. The demographic boom in some of the less developed countries contrasted with aging population in the most developed ones. Asia and Africa took the leading roles in population amount, while Europe and North America have only 15% of the world’s population together. These are two distinctive features of the 21st century and one of the main world’s concerns. Soon food and water may become scarce or very expensive for continuously growing population (Ranganathan, 2011).
According to the Millennium Project (2011), “to keep up with population and economic growth, food production should increase by 70% by 2050.” Production in developing countries will be expected to double. This also includes changes in consumption, for example meat consumption is expected to rise from 37 kg/ person/ year in 2000 to 52 kg/person/ year in 2050. This implies that more than 50% of today’s cereal production will be devoted to animal feed. Animals’ diet can be supplemented with insects though, according to FAO’s data, 2 billion of people have already supplemented their diets with insects. Another challenge is potential increase in food prices due to increasing affluence, climate change, loss of cropland, diversion of crops to biofuels, and some other factors.
The High-Level Expert Forum “How to Feed the World 2050” (2009) stated that “feeding the population adequately would also mean producing the kinds of foods that are lacking to ensure nutrition security.” Moreover, increase in population is not limited to question “how to feed.” It goes further and covers such processes as international trade and natural resources concession. Trade in agriculture is expected to increase proportionately. Cereal, vegetables and oil seeds commodities would increase almost three-fold to ensure food security in every region of Earth. Concession and processing of natural resources will be further expanded. The lands equipped for irrigation will expand by 11%, while harvested lands should be expanded by 17%. Such rates of expansion will require additional fertilizers and water that brings up the question whether such increases are feasible at all.
According to Jonathan Foley (2014), there are a few steps that can make possible survival of humans when their number reaches 9 billion. The first step is freezing agriculture’s footprint. People can no longer continue agricultural extension. Tropical forests cut and their lands given under agricultural production contribute less to solving problem of feeding people. “Avoiding further deforestation must be a top priority,” writes Foley (2014). We must think in terms of the farmlands we already have, that is step number two. The world can pay due attention to the less productive farms and increase their yields. Technological revolution and invention of special techniques as well as application of new approaches can boost yields in several times. This means bringing new life to farmer written off lands and getting new efficiency rates. Third step is more efficient use of resources. Fossil fuels and water are non-renewable resources. ‘Aggressive’ farming with the use of chemicals can lead to its runoff into waterways which can cause ecological catastrophe. Instead, organic farming may reduce use of fertilizers as well as fossil fuels. Step number four includes shift in people’s diets. This means that more of the crops should end up in human stomachs. Today 45% of the world’s crop is fed to livestock or used for biofuels and industrial products. Foley (2014) notes that “curtailing the use of food crops for biofuels could also go a long way toward enhancing food availability.” Fifth step will include reducing of waste. People should care more about food waste and diminish it dramatically at homes, restaurants and supermarkets. Waste-reducing machines are a simple example of dealing with food waste.
Another approach is suggested by Camille Guyot-Bender. She finds a solution to a global food problem in collaboration in many fields including:
Sustainable food production systems (there must be special infrastructure to deal with feeding a population);
Innovative ways of feeding 9 billion population (development of novel ways);
Nutritional security (availability and better access to nutritionally balanced diets and health care services);
Renewable resources for agriculture (dealing with waste and use of natural resources);
Learning the past to better understand the future (challenging experiences best practices of the past and can be a source of methods to tackle future problems) (Guyot-Bender, 2013).
Bibliography
Global Challenges Facing Humanity (2011) The Millennium Project. Available at http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/Global_Challenges/chall-03.html
Global Agriculture Towards 2050 (2009) High Level Expert Forum “How to Feed the World 2050”. Available at
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Global_Agriculture.pdf
Guyot-Bender C (2013) How Do We Feed Our Growing Population. Action Against Hunger. Available at http://www.actionagainsthunger.org/blog/how-do-we-feed-our-growing-population
Foley J (2014) A Five-Step Plan to Feed the World. The National Geographic. Available at http://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/feeding-9-billion/
Ranganathan J (2011) Feeding a Growing Population that Relies on Ecosystem Services (Part II of II). World Resources Institute. Available at http://www.wri.org/blog/2011/08/feeding-growing-population-relies-ecosystem-services-part-ii-ii
