3 Key Takeaways:
1. Year 2015 started with Middle East violence, as well as oil price reduction and there is a chance that the situation will not change towards these issues. However, low price for oil may negatively influence the economy of resource-rich countries. According to the annual Political Risk Map, only 7 out of 163 developing countries succeeded to reduce the political risk. And 12 countries will face pressure in 2015. Roubini Global Economics has developed 9 categories of risk to evaluate the political and economical situation of the country. The categories include violence, foreign currency exchange, law and regulation, etc.
2. There is no doubt that international sanctions have influenced the Russian economy. Moreover, the death of opposition leader, Boris Nemtsov, has also strained political situation in the country. Moreover, the instability in Russia will also affect the trading in Belarus and Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, resource-rich countries in Africa will receive less income this year. Unstable situation in Iraq, Syria, and Nigeria makes the nations in Middle East and Africa sensitive to violence. The increase of interest-rate by Fed will warm up the competition for capital all over the world.
3. There is suggestion that Egypt and Tunisia will benefit from oil price decrease. However, the security concerns will still be the issue in Libya, Syria and Iraq. According to the article, Turkey`s economy might suffer from the military actions in the Middle East, as well as the politics of Mexico might be influenced by the situation in Latin America.
Question:
How does regional stability in the Middle East and Africa depend on current situation in Syria, Iraq and Boko Haram?
References:
Bloomberg.com,. "Five Big Geopolitical Risks For 2015". N.p., 2015. Web. 4 Feb. 2016.
