I have studied quantitative analysis for some time now I have a very big chance of getting an A Grade. Getting the A grade is determined by how hard I work in the subject. Only two situations are on the table; those are getting the A grade or failing to get it.The outcome of the event of sitting an examination and getting an A Grade or failing are mutually exclusive. (Pfeiffer, 1978). This is because either of the outcomes will happen out of my sitting the examination. Through putting a lot of effort, consistency and studying hard, the probabilities of getting an A Grade are high. The probabilities are mutual because only one of the circumstances can happen.
The probabilities of my fellow students getting an A Grade will also be determined by how much effort they put in. If a lot of hard work is put in the subject then they should also have mutually exclusive probabilities of passing. Every student’s aspiration is to get an A Grade. Through studying hard, the ultimate prize should be to get an A Grade.
An individual’s judgment of whether something is likely to happen is referred to as subjective probability. This is because it only reflects an individual’s opinion and experiences. Subjective probability has no calculations. (In Wrigh & In Ayton 1994). A wholesale shop can buy stock on Thursday centered on the amount of stock bought on Tuesday.
Before the start of the English premier league, I asked the Manchester United football club fans about the likelihood of their team retaining the championship trophy. The fans responded as to par the past performance is that there was a high probability of retaining the trophy.
References
Hodges, J. L., & Lehmann, E. L. (2005). Basic concepts of probability and statistics. Philadelphia (Pa.: SIAM.
In Wright, G., & In Ayton, P. (1994). Subjective probability. Chichester: J. Wiley.
Jeffrey, R. C. (2004). Subjective probability: The real thing. Cambridge [u.a.: Cambridge Univ. Press.
Pfeiffer, P. E. (1978). Concepts of probability theory. New York: Dover Publications.
