Selling a security program
Recently, management at my place of work realized that the money coming from the vending machine is not equal to the receipts given and the quantity of products coming out of the machine. This was after conducting a cost analysis. It is obvious that someone interferers with the vending machine every now and then. Normally the person does not get more than 20 dollars and the least he takes in a day is 15 dollars. Using the decision matrix and the impact frequency matrix, I am ready to convince the company that there is a way out to get the person doing the kind of work and reduce such cases. The way out is getting a security program which I will sell to them. (Schrader, 2007)
Using the cost benefit analysis and decision matrix, I find it necessary to install a camera for the purposes of covering the vending machine. I hope that the camera will reduce the person from tampering with the machine. My plan I believe will work because the company has all the necessary measures to know the money being lost. The measures include the ability to carry out a cost and benefit analysis and this will show the benefit of placing the camera and at the same time calculate the amount spent in the camera and the money getting lost. (Hanna, 2011)
Going by the cost analysis, the cost of the camera only comes once and if not placed, the company will lose more money than the installation cost. The decision matrix covers all that, the company will have all the necessary options, and the choice made will purely depend on analysis. If I were to make the choice randomly, I would not even get close to justifying my decision but having the matrix to help in making the decision and the benefit analysis as well as the cost analysis makes everything simple. (Hanna, 2011)
The company will not only cover the vending machine but the entire company for it will give surveillance widely. The company should therefore place a camera to cover the vending machine and in one month or financial year, it will see the benefits of my plan. Getting 20 dollars at a time is a lot of money and if not well observed, the company could even go bankrupt. Cost analysis is a systematic process of comparing and calculating the cost of a project, which in this case is the camera installation and there is no way it, can equal to the money lost because the installation cost is only once and the rest incurred cost is for maintenance. (Hanna, 2011)
Probability
Numbers between zero and one write the probabilities and this is how my friend won the six times from tossing. The event becomes certain if the probability is one. Tossing a coin either gives a tail or head. The probability therefore is either head or tail but one cannot get a head and a tail at the same time. When a probability is zero, it means that the event is not possible. In our case, the event is possible because my friend has won six times. (Schrader, 2007)
When tossing a coin, there are only two possible outcomes and both outcomes are likely. The possibility of me winning the seventh toss is equal to the first toss reason being the possible outcomes are only two and it is only one person who can win. My friend does no calculations to get the win. Therefore, the outcomes get bigger and bigger as the number of coins increases. What do I mean here? If there are two coins, there will be two heads and two tails meaning that both of us can get tails or heads at the same time but in our case, we only have one coin.
Once there is a listing of the possible outcomes, then I can know the possibility of getting a win. Because I am taking tails and my friend is taking heads, I can now work out the possibilities quite easily. With one coin, it is easy to get the right answer for my possible win. It however needs an approach that is more mathematical. A fraction will represent the probability. The probability will be 50% which equivalent to ½. Therefore, the probability that I will win with a tail is 50%. It is easier for every one of us to win the next toss because we only have one coin. If a coin is a head, the chance of a head is one and the chance of no head is zero and if a coin is a tail, the chance of a head is zero and the chance of no heads is one. The total of this is one, one. (Schrader, 2007)
Risk analysis and its basic components
Risk analysis is a process used to define and analyze individuals, businesses and government’s dangers. Human and natural adverse events cause the dangers. The risk analysis report can be qualitative or quantitative. In qualitative risk analysis, there is no involvement of numerical probabilities or loss predictions. In quantitative risk analysis, there is an attempt to determine the adverse events probabilities numerically even in cases of loss if there is an occurrence of a particular event. The components of risk analysis are magnitude of potential loss and the probability that a los will occur. (Hanna, 2011)
Hanna, R. (2011). Mixtures and Their Risk Assessment in Toxicology. Astrid: RSC Publishing.
Lecher, I. (2006). Environmental risk assessment: quantitative measures, anthropogenic influences, human impact. Berlin: Springer.
Schrader, K. (1997). Technology and values. Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield.
