QUESTION 1
One can begin to think clearly about these types of events without being "that guy,” and one can have a rational discussion about this. One of the characteristics of Extremistan is that it is more likely to be found in our modern society implying that it is living and not dependent on the old environment like mediocristan. Mediocristan tends to favor the weak by making sure that the total is not determined by a single instance whereas, in Extremistan a person gets the full due of what they are supposed to get. It, therefore, goes without saying that one might think of such types of events without being "that guy." It is the mere fact that some of the characteristics involve the day-to-day living of an individual (Hancock, 2009).
When History does not crawl but jumps, it makes it less predictable. With the less predictability, one cannot be able to plan conclussively about the future. It, however, does not mean that one should not plan. The history's pattern offers a basis of some predictable events. The timing of such events is however not conclusive. The development of a basic framework of disaster futurism can be created to reduce the damage after the occurrence. A framework to prevent the occurrence of such event is a hard nut to crack. In Iraq in the early 3200 BC, a social group known as the Asipu would look up to the Apisu for advice when faced with a difficult decision. Asipu would analyze the problem at hand, get some several alternatives and give possible outcomes for each alternative (Covello & Mumpower, 1985) implying that history can be used to plan for future calamities.
QUESTION 2
There is no way around this process-oriented heroism. People should start anchoring in smalls steps for they are the derivatives of the much bigger and hugely appreciated results. The lack of not understanding the process is a dangerous phenomenon set by individuals whose anchoring is in the results. There is; therefore, no need to be anchored in emergency services for they are the precursor to the human downfall. The anchoring of one's activities to emergency services only creates a comfort zone for an individual, and the bursting of the bubble is when the hero in the case scenario does not appear when they are needed the most.
QUESTION 3
Wayne Gretzky revealed his secret to success as "go where the puck will be, not where it is" (Kennon, 2016). As much as the past is essential in planning for the future, it is not necessarily the prediction about the future. Using a bottom-up analysis in the business, community and personal life, one can analyze what works for them and what does not. One can improve the previous day's mistake, and in the case of getting somewhere by mistake, planning better would ensure that as much as luck is involved, the results are as expected.
QUESTION 4
Future predictions are a hard nut to crack. Most people or agencies who have tried to predict the future especially on the irregular predictions have failed miserably. The prediction process, particularly in unfortunate events such as earthquakes, needs to be precise and accurate; not vague. Having a vague response is the precursor to doom. In cases where the prediction involves random events, one has to be prepared for both scenarios. When the predicted outcome is favorable, one must also expect that something might happen and, therefore, prepare for the worst. Funds and well trained and equipped human resource must always be ready to ensure that there are less or no casualties when the calamity occurs (Dalkey, 1968).
QUESTION 5
It is right to assume that there are disaster futurists who look at how the failure will be contextualized in the future. The fact that we train soldiers to fight even when a country is not involved in any war is a good example. Military contractors are always busy developing new military equipment to give their clients mileage over their opponents (Collier and Lakoff 2008). Disaster futurists are not dangerous individuals. Furthermore, when well utilized, they are the game changers in some of the most unpredictable situations. They can plan of what danger is expected and how to handle it. The only answer that disaster futurists lack is the actual time of when the random event will occur. Some events might take a long time to take place while others will happen almost immediately.
QUESTION 6
This idea that to make a decision you need to focus on the consequences rather than the probability is the central idea of uncertainty is the real evidence in support of all hazards planning premise. People fear the impacts of failure than the failure itself; hence, their need to work hard. Most individuals involved in accidents will always fear the occurrence of another accident not because of the event itself but because of the impacts of the accidents such as pain and loss of life. In a nutshell, the fear of the consequences motivates better planning (Taleb, 2007).
QUESTION 7
The collapsing of a small firm is like the death of fingering in the ocean. The impact is minimal and less hurtful. The death of whale or a shark, on the other hand, is disastrous and felt all over. In the real world, moving from smaller, a local issue to a system-based issue is a sign of growth where people are starting to believe in systems rather than individuals. However, the reliance on the systems is a huge risk as there is no system which is tamper proof or insulated from manipulation. The problem is that when the system starts to fail, the failure, is more often than not, not recognized until when the whole system is on the verge of a catastrophic failure. The implications of such failure are enormous as such systems are depended upon by a lot of individuals.
QUESTION 8
Failure is not a problem. Staying down is the problem. Most of the successful people in the world have once in a while experienced some setback but still went ahead to write a new chapter that later defined them. Bill Gates, an information and technology mogul watched his first company crumble and fall. The Traf-O-Data's failure did not stop Bill from thinking big. At the end of the day, this failure has become just a footnote in the massive book of Bill's success (Demers, 2014). As such, people need to be motivated to try new things even if the chances of success are less.
QUESTION 9
"Tell me, and I forget, teach me, and I may remember, involve me, and I learn" is the most famous quote from Benjamin Franklin. Most people tend to forget stories. Students often forget what they are taught, but an individual who has experienced an event will always remember it. Linking a cause to an event creates an image in a person's mind; hence, triggering a probable assessment of the event occurrence. One can utilize such a concept to get the views of people from different sectors and improve in disaster management. The reliving of such events for example through watching may manipulate other people to think of how they would have saved themselves in such situations.
QUESTION 10
There is a cognitive process in disaster management. It would be a lie to oneself to believe that the cognitive process is not involved in emergency management. In emergency management, one has to understand the situation at hand, think through it and come up with a solution. In some cases, the thinking part does not add up, and one is forced to use past experiences and one's senses to come up with a solution. The involvement of the cognitive process is essential, but in some cases, it may be dangerous. The line in this scenario is a blur, but it does not mean that one does not have to use the cognitive process in disaster management (Carley, 1995).
QUESTION 11
When an entrepreneur is thinking of investing in any sector, they do a proper market research to understand the dynamics of the business. They get the necessary advice and tend to see the big picture. Even with the bigger picture, any business must once in a while experience a big hiccup. As such, it is not possible to see all the hazards with the "fresh eyes." It is practically impossible. For every investment, there is a risk factor which one hopes that it never occurs (Demers, 2014).
QUESTION 12
Disaster managers are the group of men and women tasked with the role of preventing, controlling and handling unfortunate events. As much as people would like to see more from these individuals, it is prudent to note that they are human and that they do not know everything. The lack of certainty keeps them on their toes and sometimes makes them perform even better when the need arises. By congratulating these managers whenever they do their job well even in situations where they were not certain, it goes a long way in boosting their morale (Dalkey, 1968).
QUESTION 13
The admission of one's mistake goes a long way in ensuring change for the better. The moment that a person sees he has failed, one can stand up and dust themselves. Giving an excuse does not help. When one understands that he is not perfect, one is the able to improve in the planning process and hence come back with better results (Taleb, 2007).
QUESTION 14
When one is anchored, it means that he is very rigid to change. A person who has experienced this will tend to revolve around his idea. When anchoring is involved, one can explore all the possible dynamics pertaining a particular issue. Disaster managers who are anchored on earthquakes can respond to such scenarios effectively since they have prepared themselves for such situations over an extended period of time. Investors tend to know all that there is in the financial markets and hence can invest better than newcomers since they have found an anchor and a niche in the said sector. The teachers can deal with students better than anybody since students are their anchors. They can note mischief even when it is a mile away (Taleb, 2007).
QUESTION 15
Creating a more robust system of rules is possible. In disaster management, one has to be an open-minded person. One must be ready to listen from all quotas and must be flexible when situations change. One cannot know where they are heading if they do not know where they are coming. One needs to understand the orthodoxy in their operations so that they can change appropriately. It is possible to create a robust system of rules when the doctrine is eliminated so as to accommodate each and everything (Streiberg, 2016).
QUESTION 16
A lot of happenings are not random. They are sequential. Not seeing the whole staircase does not mean that those stairs lead to nowhere. Randomness, 'is just un-knowledge' (Talib, 2007). One must understand that there is a reason for the occurrence of some of the phenomena in the world. The increase in water levels in the sea, for example, is due to the climatic changes leading to global warming.
QUESTION 17
Memes can be measured using the technological devices and software present. It is easier to control something than stopping it entirely especially in this digital era. Getting ahead of those spreading the memes would go a long way in inducing confidence among the people. In so doing, one will be able to contain the spread of such effects to the uninfected or from the affected people (Kolata, 2007).
QUESTION 18
There is always some truth in each story. Going to the cause of such stories can give a good baseline for any analysis. The spread of a story to great lengths induces public uproar demanding some answers. The spread is contagious, and hence an immediate review would save the much unnecessary tension (Kolata, 2007).
QUESTION 19
Being busy does not necessarily mean that one is doing something constructive. In disaster management, being busy sometimes gives some hope to the affected individuals. That aside, being seen as active in emergency situations can lead to some unwarranted mistakes. One may not be as attentive as they should; hence, resulting in more damages than necessary.
QUESTION 20
Most people do not want to hear the whole story. They just need to understand a little bit of what is going on, and that will be enough to motivate them. Information is toxic and compartmentalizing is necessary for disaster management (Taleb, 2007). The emergency personnel should be aware of the number of people and what they are required to do.
QUESTION 21
The uphill task of disaster management is ignorable. The loss of most lives is due to the under-preparedness in both mental and physical aspects. What the people in charge should always factor out is the fact that when Mother Nature comes calling, there is no particular individual in control. One is; therefore, expected to hope for the best but in the meantime prepare for the worst (Democratic Alliance, 2016).
QUESTION 22
A solution does not exist for all the problems that are present. The solution to some of the issues that one may face may occur spontaneously. Some of the challenges have no solution since fate determines them. The implication of such situations is the ability to prepare for the worst (Taleb, 2007).
QUESTION 23
Anchoring enables one to create a suitable environment allowing them to work at maximum capacity. Although anchoring works well internally, its acceptance is not in all spheres especially political. The government particularly the people who do not understand the running of the team see some of the works done as shallow and unnecessary. It is climaxed by the reduced funding (Democratic Alliance, 2016).
QUESTION 24
Creating an atmosphere in one's personal and professional lives where one can find opportunities requires one to study extensively. With such extensive study, one can see new things and come up with new ideas.
Reference
Carley, K. M (1995). Emotions in Crisis Management: An Analysis of the Organizational Response to Two Natural Disasters. Carnegie Mellon University.
Collier S.J. and Lakoff A. (2008). The Vulnerability of Vital Systems: How "Critical Infrastructure" Became a Security Problem.
Covello, V. T., & Mumpower, J. (1985). Risk analysis and risk management: An historical perspective. Risk Analysis, 5(2), 103–118.
Dalkey N.C. (1968). Predicting the future, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California.
Demers J. (2014). 6 Stories of Success Who Overcame Failure. Entrepreneur. Retrieved on 16 January 2017 from https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/240492.
Democratic Alliance (2016). Disaster Management Suggest Government Is Unprepared To Deal With Drought Crisis. Retrieved on 16 January 2017 from https://www.da.org.za/2016/02/disaster-management-suggests-government-is-unprepared-to-deal-with-drought-crisis/
Hancock K. (2009). We live in Extremistan, Writing from the Edge 2 retrieved on 16 January 2017 from https://karenhancock.wordpress.com/2009/12/16/we-live-in-extremistan/
Kennon J. (2016). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Retrieved on 16 January 2017 from https://www.thebalance.com/past-performance-is-no-guarantee-of-future-results-357862
Kolata G. (2007). Obesity spreads to friends, study concludes. The New York Times. retrieved on 16 January 2017 from http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/25/health/25iht-fat.4.6830240.html?_r=0
Steinberg J. (2016). PREPAREDNESS AND RECOVERY Why Flexibility is an Important Component to any Disaster Response retrieved on 16 January 2017 from http://www.govtech.com/em/disaster/Why-flexibility-is-an-important-component-to-any-disaster-response.html
Taleb N. N. (2007).The Black Swan Random House Inc. New York, N.Y.
