The Black Death was a plague that flowed over the continents of the world over a period of , but the major outbreak in Europe was a three year time span from 1347 to 13501; there were further resurgences of the epidemic with complete eradication not occurring until the 19th century. Had the initial devastation of demographics been isolated, Europe would probably have recovered fairly quickly. However, repeated surges of decimating epidemics continued to inflict damage for years. For example, England continued to suffer from large numbers of citizen deaths for approximately another 30 years. The population was depleted by the pandemic by an estimated 20 percent in England and Germany and as high as 80 percent in France, Spain, Italy, and Mediterranean Europe2. The actual pathology of the disease and associated maladies remain in a state of debate, but there is no doubt as to the impact on the social classes, innovation of devices to economize labor, persecutions, religion, medicine, and even architecture. The purpose of this paper is not to delve into the disease and its spread, but to provide a brief review of the consequences of Black Plague on the drastically lowered number of people in terms of economics in Europe in the mid-14th century. While the impact of the plague was catastrophic in all areas due to the reduction of manpower, it can be argued the plague called the Black Death did not cause any other economic effects on European medical than those based on population losses.
In the relatively few years when the Black Plague raged at its worst, it is believed that approximately 20 million Europeans lost their lives as a result of poor hygiene and ignorance
1. Suzanne Austin Alchon, A Pest in the Land (Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press, 2003).
2. The Late Middle Ages. (The Teaching Company, 2007).
about the cause of transmission3. Due to the proliferation of lice, ticks, and rats transporting the disease, the cities with their dense living conditions were particularly hard hit. An influx of peasants from the countryside replenished the number of residents, but also brought in more infestation. The survivors found that laborers to perform any type of work were at a premium and wages soared. For the working class, new opportunities arose since land was easily obtained, incomes were high, and the bondage of serfdom was almost completely eliminated4.
One of the first actions of European governments was to place restrictions on commerce. It was prohibited to export food, large-scale fishing was curtailed, prices were controlled on grain, and individuals seeking to profit from the black market sales were prosecuted. England was dependent on grain from France, but the massive number of deaths among farmers stopped the production of crops. Large countries such as England and Scotland had spent large portions of their treasuries waging wars and inflation was already an issue. When combined with the first wave of the pestilence, Europe was ripe for economic disaster.
The reduced numbers in the working class, particularly peasant laborers, exerted a strong influence on production in medieval Europe during the height of the plague years. There was little incentive to remain in the countryside, so strict laws forced the remaining peasants to remain on their farms. Due to farms becoming empty, land was cheap and the workers had plenty of food which increased the health of the rural population. It became difficult for
3. Stéphane Barry and Norbert Gualde."L'histoire", in Dictionary of the Middle Ages (Charles Scribner's Sons, 2003), 45-46.
4. Barbara A. Hanawalt. "Centuries Of Transition: England in the Later Middle Ages", in Recent Views on British History: Essays on Historical Writing Since 1966 (Rutgers University Press, 1984), 43-44.
landowners to collect rents since there was so much free, vacant land available. Consequently, the collection of taxes became much more difficult and many manor owners were forced to sell their estates. Since raising cattle required less manpower, fields became pastures and meat and dairy products became more plentiful. The deforestation that took place by 1200 began to be reclaimed as farms and pastures lay uncultivated. In an effort to keep peasants from rising in status, prices and wages were fixed; peasant rebellions later in the century were a result.
Wages did not rise as high for laborers inside the city and for those outside it. The reason was there was not as much demand for masons in depopulated areas, although the jobs had to be filled by a fewer number of men. However, the ability of urban laborers to move easily and take their trades to jobs in other cities promoted an exchange of ideas leading to innovations in technology. As the demand for urban workers increased and they attempted to relocate, statutes were instituted to keep laborers on their jobs and violations were met with imprisonment. Although the laws were meant to freeze wages, they also sought to continue oppression of the working class. Although wages rose, they were offset by soaring inflation so the value of payments to workers actually decreased. As an example, the real wages for a carpenter began to increase in the year 1200, peaked at around the time of the plague in a response to the situation with deflation based on the index of agricultural prices, then dropped to the previous point just after the abatement of the epidemic, remaining at that point through the year 15005. It has been argued that technology benefited from the lack of available labor and the resulting high salaries of the workers. For instance, with a drastic reduction in the number of scribes, the printing press
5. Gregory Clark, "Microbes and Markets: Was the Black Death an Economic Revolution?", Journal of Demographic Economics. Vol 82, Iss 2(2016): 139-165 .
became almost essential for the production of reading materials. Another example was the increase of industry in England and the Low Countries to the point where the production of woolen textiles surpassed that of Mediterranean countries6. Also, as there were fewer men to function in the military, the invention of firearms made the small numbers of soldiers more effective. These technological advances promoted the efficiency of economic organization.
Within the cities, financial institutions became disrupted when people owing money died and their debts became uncollectable. Guilds which had produced and maintained machines for production became idle or disintegrated completely. Due to fewer surviving heirs, the remaining rich became richer. The gold and silver in the cities stayed with the holders; this resulted in price inflation that was sustained until the middle of the 1370s 7. This reduced the amount of goods the workers could purchase with their new-found incomes, and the real wage brought him the same or less than before the plague. The church also suffered as people turned away from a religious state that was also sadly depleted as priests administered to the sick and dying and succumbed to the pestilence themselves. In terms of the influence on the economy of the wealthy, of particular interest is the state of interest rates before, during, and after the epidemic. Interest rates began to fall when land became less valuable due to an inability to farm on it secondary to lower numbers of laborers8. However, they continued to remain lower into the 16th century, indicating that there were other factors influencing the decline. These factors were more
6. S. Pamuk, "The Black Death and the Origins of the 'Great Divergence' Across Europe, 1300-1600", European Review of Economic History, Vol 11, Iss 3 (2007): 289-317.
7. John H. Munro, "Wage—Stickiness, Monetary Changes, and the Real Incomes in Late—Medieval England and the Low Countries, 1300—1500: Did Money Matter?", Research In Economic History 21(2003): 185—297.
8. Pamuk, 296.
than likely related to institutional changes that were accelerated by the decreased populations and total production.
A review of the agricultural output of the years preceding the appearance of the Black Death and the years following allows for perspective independent of the event. The amount of
production for each worker changed from placement in a rural population with few inhabitants in 1366 with few options for export over long distances and little contact with towns or cities with
large numbers of consumers9. Within 700 years, the population had risen from about 2 million people to 6.5 million accompanied by complicated markets, multiple trading options, and drastically increased urbanization that was technologically ready for industrialization. These numbers indicate that, while growth in population suffered a setback in the mid-14th century, the pestilence has only a small impact on the economy.
The growth period seen before the onslaught of the plague has been attributed to a number of reasons. Britnell proposed that advances in technology and commerce were responsible for economic improvement before 130010. However, Clark feels that the responsibility for the growth is based on either lower rates of mortality or higher rates of fertility; his theory is that when population decreases, wages increase based on supply and demand of labor11. This was apparent in population records for the years between 1210 and 1300. The influence of the Black Death on the economy of Europe in the mid-14th century was to drop the number of available workers, promoting higher real wages.
9. Ibid.
10. Richard Britnell, "Commerce and Capitalism in Late Medieval England: Problems of Description and Theory", Journal of Historical Sociology, Vol 6, Iss 4(1993): 359-376.
11. Clark, "Microbes and Markets: Was the Black Death an Economic Revolution?", 142.
In order to make a comparison, we must create a benchmark measurement to observe changes in rents, wages, and capital returns in response to changes in the numbers of people. Since the plague decreased the population by between 30 percent and 50 percent, the economy immediately reacted. By 1350, the numbers for capital returns, rents, and wages would have become stable12. The influence of technology such as the three-field planting system would have caused an increase in real wages by balance inexpensive land with the high cost of workers. Rents should have fallen, also based on improved methods of production and capital returns would have remained static since returns on investment depend on the sale of land, and they did. While real wages rose approximately 40 percent during the plague, real rents dropped the same amount. This indicates that production and the impact on economy remained stable13. The scale of production may have decreased; however, the efficiency of the economy was intact. The Black Death may have killed large numbers of people, but the resources and capital of the society endured. Epstein states that the crisis in medieval Europe during the plague years was a result of “creative destruction” that promoted incentives for technological advances14. The only changes that actually occurred were immediate and radical alterations in the factors affecting the relative prices of production.
Pamuk argues that the Black Death was responsible for significant economic changes15.
12. D.L. Farmer,"Prices and Wages, 1350-1500", in The Agrarian History of England and Wales, Vol. III, 1348-1500, (Cambridge University Press, 1991): 431-525.
13. Pamuk, "The Black Death and the Origins of the 'Great Divergence' Across Europe, 1300-1600", 289-317.
14. Stephan R. Epstein, Freedom and Growth. (Routledge, 2000).
15. Pamuk, 289-317.
He proposes that the commercialization of agriculture lead to the development of trade and manufacturing in urban areas. Skilled workers demanded higher wages and interest rates declined as the number of farmers decreased to work the land left vacant by disease. Pamuk believes the increased ability of guild workers to relocate and the changes in the institutions of the guild lead to the rise of rural industry.
In conclusion, after an evaluation of real wages, actual rental income from land, and approximations of capital rates of returns from the years prior to the initial wave of the pandemic through 1500, the Black Death had no effect on agricultural efficiency. While capital returns did fall from about 10 percent to 5 percent, it appears to have started around the year 1300, long before the first signs of the epidemic. Finally, the functioning of Europe as an agrarian society remained relatively static until the 1600s when it became to show signs of significant improvement. Therefore, it appears that the Black Plague was responsible for drastic reductions in the ability to produce food and this did affect the economy of Europe in the years between 1347 and 1350, but the demands for agricultural efficiency were also decreased by the decreased numbers of consumers. In addition, by turning to money for labor, innovative ideas for more effective technology were promoted in the next century. The growth of Europe as a society based in agriculture in the century before the Black Death was evidently secondary to the amount of cheap labor and the number of consumers rather than to technology. The large numbers of dead changed the structure and production of medieval Europe in the years following the pandemic, but the economy was scarcely affected.
Bibliography
Alchon, Suzanne Austin. 2003. A Pest in the Land. Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press.
Barry, Stéphane and Norbert Gualde. 2003. "L'histoire". In Dictionary of the Middle Ages, 1st ed., 45-46. Charles Scribner's Sons.
Britnell, Richard. 1993. "Commerce and Capitalism in Late Medieval England: Problems of Description and Theory". Journal of Historical Sociology 6 (4): 359-376. doi:10.1111/j.1467-6443.1993.tb00054.x.
Clark, Gregory. 2016. "Microbes and Markets: Was the Black Death an Economic Revolution?". Journal of Demographic Economics. 82 (02): 139-165. doi:10.1017/dem.2016.6.
Epstein, Stephan R. 2000. Freedom and Growth. London: Routledge.
Farmer, D.L. 1991. "Prices and Wages, 1350-1500". In The Agrarian History of England and Wales, Vol. III, 1348-1500, 1st ed., 431-525. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hanawalt, Barbara A. 1984. "Centuries Of Transition: England In The Later Middle Ages". In Recent Views on British History: Essays on Historical Writing Since 1966, 1st ed., 43-44. Rutgers University Press.
Munro, John H. 2003. "Wage—Stickiness, Monetary Changes, and the Real Incomes in Late— Medieval England and the Low Countries, 1300—1500: Did Money Matter?". Research in Economic History 21: 185—297.
Pamuk, S. 2007. "The Black Death and the Origins of the 'Great Divergence' Across Europe, 1300-1600". European Review of Economic History 11 (3): 289-317. doi:10.1017/s1361491607002031.
The Late Middle Ages. 2007. DVD. The Teaching Company: Philip Daileader.
