The effectiveness and practicability of the Kyoto Protocol is one of the most controversial issues that have received ample critiques from both economic and scientific points of view1. While the protection of the climatic system is necessary for protecting2 the benefits and sustainability for the current and future generations of humanity, the framework for realizing the objectives of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)3 has been a subject of debate in conferences in addition to receiving equally varied interpretations from the parties. Many a party to the protocol has been accused of failing to meet their common but differentiated responsibilities considered crucial for leading the process of combating climate change and the related adverse effects. Of great concern is the effectiveness of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol Convention on Climate Change4. This UN protocol was aimed at committing industrialized nations to stabilize the emission of Green House Gases (GHG). Several nations such as the US have been reluctant to accept the protocol by citing certain controversies related to the protocol.
According to the Kyoto Protocol, the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” is used as the platform for placing heavy burdens on industrialized nations. Similarly, less industrialized countries were expected to benefit from the projects associated with certified reductions of GHG. All the target cuts were expected to have been accomplished by the period 2008-2012 but interestingly the emission levels are currently higher than the emissions of the baseline year (1990)5. For this reason, the central argument in this paper is that the Kyoto Protocol has fallen short of achieving its objectives by the targeted period. Besides, the paper examines the milestones that have been achieved so far and as well, it examines the loopholes that affected the realization of the objectives from an international perspective. The paper assumes that it is difficult to achieve meaningful international efficiency using the principles of the protocol.
In this paper, the circumstances leading to the realization of efficient and effective control of CHG under the Kyoto Protocol will be identified. This will depend on the analysis of the examination of the compliance levels and the reliability of emission data used in assessing the level of compliance. Controversies regarding the implementation of the Kyoto protocol will also be examined to ascertain the effects that have hindered the realization of effectiveness and the objectives of the protocol. On the other hand, the difficulties of international environmental effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol will be evaluated based on the potential loopholes in meeting the requirements of the Protocol coupled with factors that have played a fundamental role in breaching its environmental integrity. This will entail the examination of issues that have threatened the environmental effectiveness of the protocol. Last, the examination of the factors mentioned above will guide the examination of the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol in the realization of its objectives and the difficulties faced in the process of achieving international effectiveness.
Theoretical Framework
The Kyoto Protocol involves a fight between conflicts of interests among developed and developing nations and hence, the rational choice theory will be ideal in explaining the behavior of parties towards the implementation of obligations of the Protocol. For instance, rich nations such as the USA withdrew from the protocol due to rationality issues in that they would want to obtain more from the agreement than give a lot6. This model can be used to provide a framework for implementing policies to solve disagreements and as well understanding conflicts of interests among nations.
Game theory-The Case of the US
Withdrawal of the United States from the Kyoto Protocol can be analyzed from a critical but intelligent point given that ratification of the treaty meant a lot for US economy. Being the leading emitter of GHGs, participation of the US in the Kyoto Protocol played a significant role in the success of the protocol. To this purpose, the United States involved itself in a two-level game series regarding behavior in climatic negotiations. A negotiation from an international perspective meant that all nations’ party to the agreement should ratify the deal. However, the agreement failed to consider the needs of Americans or rather an agreement that was convincing to the US senate. While Al Gore and Clinton signed the Kyoto agreement that committed the US to a 7% decrease in emissions, US legislators could not agree with the agreement because it failed to fulfill the requirements of US system. In the end, the US pulled out of the Kyoto protocol due to what can be termed as conflicts of economic interests.
Sources of effectiveness
Arguably, environmental sustainability cannot be compared with the rate of growth in the economy7. Many argue that the Kyoto Protocol Convention was a generous move towards rich countries given that the many of the developed nations were allocated property rights on GHG emissions and the atmosphere in exchange of their promise to reduce their emissions at a 5% rate of the 1990 emissions8. The Kyoto Protocol has provided a fundamental step towards the achievement an international regime of reducing GHGs thereby leading to the stabilization of the concentration of greenhouse gases. While many governments that have ratified the protocol have already put in place control measures, more others are continuing to implement policies and legislations that meet their commitment to the Protocol. It is believed that the Kyoto Protocol did provide crucial steps, essential architecture, and as well, guided investment decisions necessary for the establishment of a climate-friendly society.
The implementation of International Trading Emissions has provided a mechanism for players to establish schemes to be run by their respective commissions. For instance, the European Commission, the UK Government, and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government are responsible for running the European Union Emissions9 Trading System, Emission Trading Scheme in the UK, and the Japanese Scheme respectively. Equally, the participating countries have made substantial efforts towards the realization of the Kyoto Protocol obligations through the framework of intergovernmental trading emissions whereby compensation of surplus allowances or deficits are compensated10.
The creation of the mechanism for clean development has played a major part in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions11. This has been made possible by the use of renewable sources of energy, switching of fuel, and encouraging efficient energy consumption mechanisms; factors that have contributed immensely to the effective reduction of CHGs12.
Using the economic aspects of the protocol, possible global evolutions, and long term environmental responsibilities are more likely to enhance the effectiveness of the protocol13. For instance, responses from future technologies and other related practices from institutions such as projected improvement of commitments and policies is tandem with the objectives of the protocol14. This provides a positive framework for achieving the objectives specified in the mechanism for clean development, structure to be followed in different commitment periods, and in the transfer of technologies. Based on these factors, the protocol seems to be the ideal measure for providing efficient long-term solutions to issues related to climatic change.
Points of controversy
Several annual conferences aimed at the discussion and addressing of issues related to the Kyoto Protocol have been held by the UNFCCC but little or no progress has been realized so far. This has formed a larger percentage of critics arguing that the Kyoto Protocol has fallen short of achieving the intended objectives. The first point of controversy relates to aspect of withdrawal or lack of penalties for non-compliance. Currently, there is lack of penalties that have been set for countries that have ratified the protocol but failed to fulfill the emission reduction targets. While there exists considerations for penalties in future conventions such as trade sanctions, financial penalties, the process, and details of establishing the penalties has been slow15. Speaking of withdrawal, a one-year notice enables a country that has ratified the treaty to withdraw itself from the protocol. This makes the protocol to be less binding to countries party to the treaty.
The second controversy centers on the factors that form a priori for the reduction of emissions. While countries party to the protocol agreed that GHGs be reduced, no agreements were made regarding what will constitute the “reductions.” For instance, countries with large forest cover such as Russia and Canada called for the allocation of credits because they absorb carbon from the atmosphere. This has made it difficult to identify the right model of quantifying the amount of identifying actual benefits. The third controversy revolves around the mechanisms used in the Kyoto protocol with regard to the generation, buying, or trading of emission targets. Three mechanisms that are used include the joint implementation mechanism, clean development mechanism, and the international emission trading mechanism. The controversy in such mechanisms claims that so long as reductions are achieved anywhere on the globe, then the reduction quota is being realized. This makes it possible for member states to trade their energy credits from different investment projects coupled with the lack of regulation methods for the emission trading market.
Other factors contributing to the controversial flaws in the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol include the exclusion of developing countries such as China and India and the costs and economic implications of the protocol16. Despite the use of dirtier and older technologies17 by developing countries, failure to consider them in the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not necessarily mean that they do not emit large percentages of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. Speaking of economic and cost implications, the immediate benefits of the Kyoto protocol might be less favorable even though they are beneficial in the future.
Issues that have threatened the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol
It is argued that several factors have been responsible for threatening the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol. The first issue entails granting proposals that grant emission credits to certain activities such as harvesting forests, and agricultural activities to countries such as Canada and the USA. Second, the aspect of unlimited ‘hot air’ emissions will not only weaken the integrity of the emission but also increase the rate of emitting greenhouse gases. Third, by using the Clean Development Mechanism to measure the rate of emission trading from industrial countries encourages such countries to increase their level of emissions without necessarily having to provide a guarantee that this amount will be compensated in other regions of the globe. Finally yet important, the issue of exempting shipping of certain commodities such as shipping and aviation fuels from the Kyoto Protocol without considering any firm agreement controls. This presents an opportunity for international airlines to be exempted from controls that affect similar groups.
Why the Kyoto Protocol Failed
With the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, many analysts have argued that it is a failure considering its failure to demonstrate reduced emissions of GHGs. A finger might be pointed to Australia and USA for failing to ratify the protocol but the failure of the Kyoto Protocol has much to do with the lack of accommodating the complexities associated with issues to do with climate changes. Failure of inclusion of large economic powerhouses such as China could further dampen the hopes of realizing the objectives. From the climatic point of view, there is an increased rate of carbon dioxide emissions and a sharp increase in the level of global temperatures.
These issues can be summarized by loopholes associated with the Kyoto Protocol. Three loopholes that undermine the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol problem can also be identified as issues that led to lack of its effectiveness. The first loophole concerns with the inflation of assigned amounts, which provides possibilities for inflation of budget emission by parties. Furthermore, exclusion of sources in the obligations of the protocol fails to include emissions from international marine and aviation transport. The last loophole involves the trading of hot air emissions which results to higher than expected levels.
Conclusion
The analysis of the factors influencing the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol reveals that the Protocol is yet to realize the goals identified in its objectives in addition to facing international difficulties. The paper demonstrates that several factors have hindered the implementation of the policies expected in the protocol. While the Kyoto Protocol has provided a fundamental step towards the achievement an international regime of reducing greenhouse gases, commitment from the parties can be characterized by reluctances. Critics have pointed controversies such as lack of penalties for withdrawals, omission of developing countries, and identification of factors that constitute ‘reductions’ as being the main impediments against the realization of effectiveness of the protocol. Other issues that have threatened the effectiveness and international efficiencies revolves around the loopholes of the Protocol such as inflation of assigned amounts, hot air emissions, and exclusion of sources for marine and aviation transport.
Despite annual conventions, the hope of achieving effectiveness in the Kyoto Protocol remains a problem. It is emphatically crucial that a lasting but sustainable solution be developed to solve the issues and controversies surrounding the Protocol if any level of effectiveness is to be achieved. Designing concrete steps must be undertaken to guide the implementation of an international agreement for guiding the fight against global warming18. It is argued that the implementation of policies to provide solutions to the above problems will facilitate the realization of effectiveness in the protocol in addition to minimizing the controversies and debates surrounding the Kyoto Protocol.
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