Iran’s possible acquisition of nuclear weapons should always be considered as part of a much broader strategic, economic and political context, especially since the U.S. has always regarded it as a vital interest since the 1940s and 1950s because of its strategic location and vast oil reserves. For this reason, the CIA overthrew the government of Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953 when he nationalized the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (British Petroleum), and then supported the Shah until the Islamic Revolution of 1979 (Gaddis 2005). Certainly a case could be made that Iran opted out of the Cold War at that point, since its new government was hostile to both the West and the Soviet Union, and has often found itself economically and militarily isolated for the last thirty years. In 1980-88, the U.S. and the Western powers all supported Saddam Hussein when he attacked Iran, no matter that Saddam had been a Soviet ally since 1968, although at the same time the Reagan administration attempted some unsuccessful secret negotiations with Iran that turned out to be very unsuccessful (Hunter, 2010, p. 239). No U.S. administration since 1979 has had any great success in engaging the Iranian regime diplomatically, including Barack Obama, and the U.S. has had no formal diplomatic relations with the country since that time. In addition, the American public never forgot that the U.S. embassy was taken over in 1979 and its diplomats held hostage for over a year. From 1979 to the present, Iran has also been unwilling to “deal with the United States in an open manner”, mostly for ideological reasons (Hunter, p. 240). Because of the American sanctions and embargos over the last thirty years, which are clearly designed to destabilize the country or even cause it to disintegrate, “Iran lags far behind Turkey in terms of economic and industrial development” despite its oil revenue (Hunter, p. 241).
These sanctions have been expanded and intensified in recent years because of Iran’s nuclear program and its threats to destroy Israel. No one seriously believes that this program is intended for peaceful purposes, and “Iran’s nuclear ambition has alarmed the international community” (Khan, 2010, p. 110). George W. Bush proclaimed Iran as part of the Axis of Evil along with North Korea and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, while Barack Obama rapidly gave up any efforts at diplomacy when Iran failed to reciprocate, and also violently suppressed its own pro-democracy movement after the regime lost the 2009 elections. Given the isolation and unpopularity of the regime “one weapon is enough of a deterrent for a weaker state”, when it is being threatened with attack by the U.S. and Israel (Khan, p. 112). In addition, the Western powers did not condemn Iraq in 1980-88 when it repeatedly used chemical weapons on Iran, and in fact assisted Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons program.
For the Obama administration, the greatest threat to the American people was an attack by terrorists possessing nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. Cold War stockpiles in these weapons and materials still exist, as do black markets trading in them, while many countries have been disregarding nonproliferation agreements. All of this makes a nuclear attack more likely, which is why U.S. policy favors a global reduction in the development of WMDs and assigns “top priority” to preventing their proliferation (NSS, p. 22). Towards this end, the administration signed and ratified a new START agreement with Russia and also reduced the role of nuclear weapons in its own national security planning, while calling for a new Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The U.S. will also continue its efforts to de-nuclearize the Korean peninsula and prevent Iran from acquiring WMDs, and will continue to isolate both countries diplomatically and economically if they refuse to negotiate on this issue.
Iran has not demonstrated any serious interest in improving relations with the West, and its political model has no great appeal even in the Middle East. Indeed, this type of dictatorship has become more unpopular than ever during the Arab Spring revolutions over the past two years, which the U.S. has endorsed. Of course, Iran has not really been part of the Cold war since the revolution against the Shah in 1979, although the U.S. has applied the same type of embargo and containment policies against it that it with China and Cuba in the past. It never had a Communist government at all, but is more of an Islamic fascist regime hostile to both the U.S. and the Soviet Union. It is an isolated and insecure regime that often engages in diplomatic bluster and brinksmanship precisely because of its unpopularity at home and abroad, and the U.S. has been intensifying sanctions against it for a decade or longer.
REFERENCES
Gaddis, J.L. (2005) The Cold War: A New History. New York : Penguin Press
Hunter, S. (2010). Iran’s Foreign Policy in a Post-Soviet Era: Resisting the New International Order. ABC-CLIO, 2010.
Khan, S. (2010). Iran and Nuclear Weapons: Protracted Conflict and Proliferation. Routledge, 2010.
National Security Strategy (2010). The White House, May 2010.
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