Presidential approval ratings in the United States were first brought up in 1930s to gauge the presidents of United States by the public during his term (Edwards and Gallup, 2000). Approval rating is determined by a polling which shows the percentage of people to an opinion poll who support a particular programme or person.in simple terms, presidential approval rating is taken during the term of a president to determine his popularity to the people in terms of percentage as to whether they approve or disapprove his or her ways of administration or the decisions he/she has so far carried out.
The economy, the rally effect, scandals and the honeymoon effect can be single out as the four broad factors that affect presidential ratings in the United States. Different president have had different rating subjected to the above named factors, this has affected their popularity on the ratings differently starting from time immemorial (Edwards and Gallup, 2000). On my discussion, i will dwell on Ronald Reagan’s public approval on the economy, Richard Nixon’s rally effect, Lyndon Johnson Scandal’s effect and Jimmy Carter Honeymoon effect.
The Economy Effect
The economy effect is shown when there are adverse changes in the economy of the country, resulting to various implications; these may include increase in employment, changes in inflation levels and changes in interest rates levels. The pre3isdent takes blame in case of bad economy as well as praises for the good work done to the economy. My focus will be president’s Ronald Reagan term of 1981-1989 as president.
President Ronald Wilson Reagan became the 40th president of the United States on 1981. Before he was the 33rd California’s Governor (1967-1975) and a television and film hence his popularity. Ronald held a Bachelor of Arts degree majoring on economics and sociology( Reagan, 2001). Reagan started as a democrat in the 1950s but later shifted to become a Republican in 1962.
As president, he introduced new political and economic initiatives which include supply-side economics famously known as ‘Reaganomics’ which advocated the reduction of tax to enable economic growth, reducing inflation by regulatory the supply side of the money market, minimum regulation of the economy and reduction of government spending. Reagan placed a hard note of the labour unions as they hard adverse negative effects on the growing of the US economy. He also focused on war against illegal drugs and illegal money businesses.
During his term as president, inflation reduced to 4.4% form 12.5%, unemployment reduced from 7.5% to 5.4%. Reagan backed a classical open-minded laissez-faire attitude aiming to bring upon development of the economy with various tax cuts (Reagan, 2001).
President’s Reagan supported for the gold standard which he later convinced the congress to establish the US Gold Commission to analyze and implement the Gold Standard. He also cut down the budgets relating to non-military programs such as food stamps, Medicaid, the EPA and federal education programmes while protecting such programs such as Medicare and social security.
As noted above, this increased his popularity adversely due to the economic effect as there many jobs created due to his strategies and also consumer price index went down. This shows how the economic can have effects on the presidential approvals ratings.
The Rally Effect
The rally effect occurs when the United States Experiences a significant event results with action taken by the President to counter attack the event or the president’s action being the ones which caused the events in the first place. These events cause the citizens of the country to react as they are not just normal but not expected events. In my discussion I will focus on president’s Richard Nixon term of 1969-1974.
Richard Milhous Nixon was born in January 9, 1913 in Yorba Linda, California. He became the 37th president of the US in 1968 and he became the 1st and the only president of the United States to resign during his term as president. Nixon also served as a Republican Senator and Representative from California and also as the vice president (1953-1961).
Nixon is known for his contribution towards the Vietnam War, he increased troops to Vietnam. After all this he ended the Vietnam War in 1973 creating world recognition all over. Nixon visited china in 1972, creating diplomatic relation between the countries. He made headlines all over the world by being the first president of the United States to shake hands with the Premier of china after he shook hands with Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai after arrival in China. This became news all over the world increasing Nixon’s popularity. This created Nixon’s rally effect in his first term of rule giving him a major advantage which enabled him to win his second term. Nixon also signed an Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with the Soviet Union in 1972, hence, major exposure.
In his second term the Watergate scandal led to his resignation leading to controversies and speculation. This was a major event as no other US president has ever resigned from office before, making him the first. His presidential approval rating shifted majorly though to the negative directing. As seen, President Nixon had major rally effects on his terms as president, each changing his ratings adversely.
Scandal
This may either involve unethical behaviour or law breaking events that occur during the term of the president or not during his term and the president has direct involvement in the case.
President Lyndon B. Johnson, the 36th president of the US between 1963 and 1969 was involved in many controversies and scandals in his career, both unethical and law breaking (Dallek, 1998). Madeleine Duncan Brown an American woman alleged that she was a mistress to Johnson for a long time. She claimed that she had a son with Johnson out of the relationship. MS Brown also placed Johnson in the plot of assassination of President J. F. Kennedy, though her allegations have never been confirmed.
Brown was also involved in the overthrow of the Dominican Republic president and the President of Brazil. Johnson continued the support of taping phone call conversions by the FBI (Dallek, 1998).. This resulted in outrage by the public in various cities; phone calls tapped include Martin Luther King and Vietnamese friends of Nixon associates. These events above demonstrate in full effects of scandals in the presidential approval ratings as Johnson ratings significantly went down during his term.
Honeymoon Effect
This is where one receives praises and high ratings during the first period of his term but later the ratings start to decrease as time goes by. A good example can be seen by president’s James Carter term in office from 1977 to 1981(Joseph, 2002). He started well with the establishment of the national energy policy that involved price control, new technology and conversation receiving high presidential approval ratings. Later on major crisis hit on such as the energy crisis of 1979, the Iran hostage crisis, the USSR invasion of Afghanistan, the eruption of Mt. St. Helens, the three mile nuclear accident and the boycott of the summer Olympics of 1980. This adversely led to decline of his ratings to almost 30% from 60% in the final ( Joseph, 2002).
In conclusion, the presidential approval ratings are affected by four main factors as shown above by the case scenarios listed. This includes the economy, scandals, the rally effect and finally the honeymoon effect.
References
Dallek, R. (1998). Flawed giant: Lyndon Johnson and his times, 1961-1973. New York: Oxford University Press.
Edwards, G. C., & Gallup, A. (2000). Presidential approval: A sourcebook. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Joseph, P. (2002). Jimmy Carter. Edina, Minn: ABDO Pub. Co.
Reagan, R. (2001). Reagan, in his own hand. New York: Free Press
