Forecasting is the prediction of future events. This paper aims at discussing in details three qualitative forecasting techniques. The paper will also examine various advantages and disadvantages of each qualitative method discussed in this paper. The three qualitative methods which are to be discussed here include survey of customer’s intention, Delphi method and sales forecast method.
Informed opinion and judgment
Here forecasting is done by an individual through his/her own informed opinion. This implies that the validity of the forecast will entirely depends on the ability of the individual to make accurate judgment. This method is highly subjective hence it is prone to biasness.
Advantages
It is easy and cheap to conduct.
Disadvantages
The method is prone to biasness since an individual is more likely to provide wrong information. It cannot be used in big companies because it lacks objectivity.
Delphi method
This technique employs the use of group of experts to obtain consensus information without undue influence. The method follows the following procedure: the first step entails giving of sets of questions to each expert after which each expert provides his/her own answer. The responses from different experts are then collected and then summarized. In case the consensus is not reached at, the summarized responses are then taken back to the experts after which they are requested to revise their responses. The repeat is done until such a time when consensus is reached at.
Advantages of Delphi method
One of the advantages of this method is that since it is carried independently, there is no need for face-to-face meeting between the experts. The method is also free from social pressure since individual decision is not influenced. Each expert gives his/her own independent decision. The method is also in expensive because each expert carry out forecasting at his/her own convenience.
Disadvantages
One of the weakness or disadvantage of this method is that since forecasting come from a specific group of people, these forecasts may not be a representative of a given population. The method is also time consuming and requires relevant knowledge and skills if it is to be successful.
Market research
This method entails obtaining judgements from the customers. The forecast can be done through distributing various questionnaires to the selected respondents. It can also be done through conducting interviews among the respondents in order to determine their behavior or perception towards a particular service or product.
Advantages
One of the advantages of this method is that the interviewer is likely to collect myriad of information some of which can be used to modify the products and services offered so as to meet the expectations of the customers. The method is also easy to conduct and it is less time consuming. The forecasting method can also be quickly conducted through phones.
Disadvantages
The customers are likely to provide bias information on the questionnaires. In addition, the stated expectation of the customer’s is not likely to translate into the required behavior. Generally the method lacks objectivity since it does not make use of the scientific principles. At time this method may be very expensive to conduct.
Question 2
The badly designed product is my phone which is Motorola T190. The phone is designed in such a way that when I insert it into my pocket then it protrudes outside. The size of the phone is too big such that it cannot fit well into my pocket. In addition, the phone has a long antenna which further makes its size even bigger. The phone is the size of a small radio call that the policemen do use to communicate to each other. The phone always disadvantages me especially when I am walking in the city center. This is because I fear that I can easily be attacked because I am always forced to carry it in my hand.
Design modification
I would have wished that the phone be designed in such a way that it is sizable which can easily fit into the pocket without anybody noticing what is in the pocket. The areal of the phone should be done away with in order to reduce its size.
Question 3
The quality of the graduates a school system depends on the rules and the regulations put in place to govern the overall performance of the students. For a public school to control the quality of output produced within the organization (graduates), the school should set the minimum standards below which a student is not allowed to proceed to the next level. The school should also ensure that the rules and the regulations that govern the school are strictly followed or adhered to. In addition, the school should ensure that all sorts of exams cheating are fought against.
The nature of the inputs of education should also be properly determined because they determine the quality of the graduates. For instance, educational personnel: these include teachers and the non-teaching staff. However, teachers are the principal factors in the provision of education hence determine the quality of education in a significant way. Some of the principle attributes however include number of teachers available to the pupil ratio and the characteristics of the individual teachers. The characteristics include academic qualifications, content knowledge, ability and the years of service. All these determine the quality of output produced.
Instructional content and materials are also important in ensuring quality education. The type, relevance and the volume of the instructional contents are all important. This is because the materials support teaching and learning, quality and quantity of the output. Other factors that determine the quality of the output include educational facilities and finance.
Question 4
Advantages and disadvantages of standardization
The term standardization refers to the process of forming and implementing particular standards. One of the advantages of standardization is that it encourages innovation and also acts as a barrier to outcomes that are undesirable. Standardization can enable the organization to create well organized infrastructural facilities that provide foundation for innovation. Research also shows that companies that make use of standardization always have an edge over their competitors. Standardization can enable the company to reduce costs of its products and services while maintaining high quality. Standardization can also enable the company to reduce the risks they are facing in the organization. For instance, such companies may enjoy reduced market research risks and developments costs. Standardization also increases the market competition which in turn increases the growth of the economy.
Disadvantages of standardization
Despite having myriad advantages, standardization also has its own disadvantages. For instance, the cost of standardization too high. This implies that not all the organizations may be able to meet the costs associated with standardization. Standardization also limits the opportunity to develop other technologies. This in turn reduces competition in the company. In addition, it also reduces the number of technologies that could have been available for use.
Innovation can be encouraged within the organization by creating a good atmosphere in which innovation can be developed. This is definitely the natural characteristic required to promote innovation within the organization. Communication is also a key component for innovation. The top management can also encourage innovation by setting up one or more challenges to the appropriate people at the work place. This is important because without a challenge, there may be no drive to innovate.
Question 5
ERP stands for enterprise resource planning. The ERP offer a number of advantages and disadvantages as well. The application of the ERP system will aid in accounting applications. This is because the system is able to integrate the cost, profit and revenue information of the sales which are made and which are capable of being presented in granular way. The system will also enable me to alter how the product is being manufactured with an objective of satisfying the customer’s requirements. The dating structure can be set up which can allow the company to keep track of their products. The system will therefore allow me to produce products with a higher quality level.
Disadvantages
One of the disadvantages of this system lies on its cost. Actually only big corporations may be able to fully exploit the advantages associated with this technology. This means that as the small business, my business may not be able to fully exploit the benefits associated with this technology. The success of the system depends on the ability of the workers to make good use of it. For instance, the system requires trained personnel.
