Abstract
Revolution refers to the drastic changes in the governmental institution, which is carried out by the non-institutional forces. According to Theda Skocpol’s model of revolutions, the revolutions begin with the “Crisis of State” that is initiated by diverse international factors including the security and economic competition from the world. This condition of “crisis of state” is augmented by a second factor that involves the “Class Dominance” that identifies that which group will exploit the situation of revolution. These two basic factors bring about the social revolution. This research will highlight that the model elucidated by Skocpol is an appropriate framework that helped predict which countries in the region did/did not experience Arab Spring uprisings. It will also highlight that this model remains relevant to analyze new cases of revolutions, as well. To analyze the Skocpol’s model and its application to the Arab Spring, a comparative historical research method will be used. This method analyzes the historical events in a manner that it makes elucidations that are appropriate with place and a particular time that may be done through direct comparison or the comparison of the theory building, historical events, or by making reference to the current day. Theda Skocpol Model of revolution was formulated in the year 1976 that based its research on the revolutions in France, China, and Russia. This research will serve as a mechanism that can revive its significance to understanding the mechanism that give rise to revolutions.
Keywords: Revolution, Arab Spring, Theda Skocpol Model
Theda Skocpol's Model of Revolutions and the Arab Spring Uprisings –
Introduction
Revolution refers to the drastic changes in the governmental institution, which is carried out by the non-institutional forces. These drastic changes are supported by dominant popular groups that mobilize mass movements for domestic revolts, demonstration, civil war, guerilla warfare, mass strikes and various other means. According to Theda Skocpol’s model of revolutions, the revolutions begin with the “Crisis of State” that is initiated by diverse international factors including the security and economic competition from the world. This condition of “crisis of state” is augmented by a second factor that involves the “Class Dominance” that identifies that which group will exploit the situation of revolution. These two basic factors bring about the social revolution. Social Revolution is distinct from Political Revolution. Social Revolution refers to the political revolution as well as transformation in the social structure. On the contrary, Political Revolution refers only to the changes in the government and not the social structure of the country.
Arab Spring is the beginning of a revolutionary movement in the Arab World for a pro-democratic government that begun with massive protest and demonstration in Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA Region). These movements challenged the long-term authoritarian governments. Demonstrators expressed their economic and political grievances that faced severe crackdown for the ruling government and security forces. Major events of the uprising include Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, Egypt Uprising in the year 2011, Yemen Revolution in 2011-12, Syrian Uprising in 2011-12, and Libyan Revolt in 2011.
This research will highlight that the model elucidated by Skocpol is an appropriate framework that helped predict which countries in the region did/did not experience Arab Spring uprisings. It will also highlight that this model remains relevant to analyze new cases of revolutions, as well. The forces of globalization have reduced the communication gaps amongst the people throughout the world. People in this chunk of time are more aware of their rights and the ongoing situation of the world. Mass media and specifically Internet has helped connect the world and people even in the remotest part of the world are now the global citizens of the world. Technology has provided myriad means to people to express their concerns and their views to the world. People are now more prone to the drastic changes and societies are more prone to revolutions due to the easy access to numerous communication means. Due to these systematic changes in the global landscape, studying the framework of the factors that lead of Revolutions is necessary.
Literature Review
Carried out by non-institutional means, Revolutions are rapid transformations in the institution setup of the government. These drastic changes are initiated through mass mobilization by demonstrations, guerilla warfare, mass strikes, civil war, and various other revolutionary methods. Until the decade of 1960s, the revolutions were considered to be major historical turning points, and were marked as threshold points that lead to the end of the conventional mechanism of government and creation of a political organization. This view of revolution has become ambiguous after the proliferation of a multitude of revolutionary movements that have brought numerous changes in the twentieth century.
Revolutions are of primarily two types. One is the Political Revolution that is marked with the changes in the government and the few macro framework of the country. On the other hand, the Social Revolution is the combination of both the Political Revolution and the one that changes the social structure of the country. These social changes may include Anti-dictatorial revolutions, anti-colonial independence revolts, and anti-communist revolutions. These political struggles bring about transformation of various degrees. Some of them are lasting, and some of them are short-lived. Although, revolutions are marked by sudden and major political and social changes in the society, but still it needs to be studied in a more detailed and long-term basis rather than an episode of the permanent change, which is self-contained.
Skocpol Framework – A Revolutionary Situation
The framework of Revolution expounded by Skocpol identifies that the revolution is initiated by two major factors. The first and the foremost important factor include the “Crisis of State”. It is a situation that is provoked by a multitude of international factors. These factors include enhanced economic and security competition from the different countries of the world. These are considered crisis and not merely challenges because the rulers of the country are not able to solve it because of their different institutional constraints. This result in the elites of the country and the army to be divided that causes weaknesses in the regimes. This situation of Crisis of State results in a revolutionary situation. The second factor of the revolution occurs due to “Class Dominance”. When the crisis of state is developed in the countries, numerous chunks of the society show their grievances towards the government that gives an opportunity a class that has the same objects and this situation gives them dominance. This scenario of class dominance exploits the situation and thus starts the mass mobilization of people.
As the revolution starts and the traditional government is overthrown by various means, the dominant group forms the government. After the fall of the previous government, the new government faces the same kind of economic and political issues. The success and failure of the new government determine how the revolutionary regime will organize and establish itself. The revolutionary outcomes identify the structure of the country, for instance, after Chinese Revolution, it developed into mass-mobilizing party-state; Russia developed into dictatorship and France evolved into a capitalistic society.
Arab Spring and Skocpol’s Framework
According to Skocpol, the first factor that initiates the revolutionary situation is the state of crisis marked by international economic and security competition. The countries that were affected by the Arab Spring had these signs from decades, which initiated a revolutionary condition. The region of Arab is marked by intensified level of income disparity. In Egypt, one half of the Egyptians live on two dollars per day, which is immensely low from the other half. The businesses, the institutions, and the people who were close to the President Hosni Mubarak enjoyed a great benefit from his official position. On average, the annual per capital income of Egypt was just $6,200. According to numerous researches, the Arab countries in which this revolution begun had higher food prices than the world average population of the world. This economic mismanagement highlights the points expressed by Theda Skocpol. This situation was not just a challenge to them, but its persistent made it crisis. Although, most of the rulers of these countries were on the key positions since few centuries, but it remained a least concern for them. This crisis was persistent from many years, but it reached its threshold level after the global economic meltdown.
Unemployment was another major issue that created a revolutionary situation in the Arab world. On an average, 24% of the Arab youth were not able to find jobs. This situation was augmented after the world financial crisis. United National Development Program identifies that the Arab Population has doubled from 1975 to 2005 that is now 314 million. Around two-third of the Arab population consist of youth, which are under 30. 24% unemployed people from the two third chunks of the population means a very huge number. Unemployment of course deprives a person from all the economic and social wellbeing of a personal. It deprives him of his basic human rights. The high population of youth and soaring unemployment rate complimented to create a ripple for the demand to change the basic structure of the society.
According to the book Neo-patriarchy written by Hisham Sharabi, he elucidate that even in a time where most of the Western countries of the world enjoy political rights and democracy, the region of Arab suffers from intense corrupt political systems, state of emergency laws, lack of freedom of speech, election, and fundamental rights to practice religious practices. In comparison with the other half of the world, there is a complete imbalance for basic human and political rights. These prevailing conditions also become a reason to make a revolutionary situation identified by Skocpol. One of such instances is the lack of political freedom and intensified corruption in Egypt. Emergency laws number 162 of 1958 were enacted by the Egypt government after the “Six Day War” in the year 1967. For the so-called security reasons, numerous constitutional rights were abolished and enhanced the level of power given to police. It also gave more liberty to the state to detain individuals and give the liberty to authorities to try them in front of security courts and military. It increased the power of the state to censor newspapers. Apart from these actions taken decades ago, the Egyptian government at myriad situations took advantage of numerous situations in their own benefit. In the events followed by 9/11, where few Egyptians were involved, a number of actions were taken that excused enhanced level of violation of basic human rights through the military courts.
The second step towards revolution, as elucidated by Theda Skocpol, is the fact that the dominant group exploits the revolutionary situation and carryout mass mobilization. In most of the countries that witnessed the Arab Spring, numerous Islamist groups came to power. In the case of Egypt, Freedom and Justice Party came to dominance that did mass mobilization of the population. Due to the emergency laws in Egypt it was not possible create a platform for people, where they could contribute. In the backdrop of it, social media and internet became a major source that for the first time allowed people of Egypt to express them at a larger platform. This mechanism turned out to be a source to plan demonstrations and uprising. Under the platform of the Freedom and Justice Party, people challenged the decades old status-quo made by the autocratic system of Hosni Mubarak. In case of Tunisia, Ennahda Movement was the dominant Islamist group that provided a platform to the people revolt against the decades old regime of Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD). Following mass public protests, Ghannouchi had to resign and following a democratic elections, Ennahda came to power. In the case of National Transition Council (NTC) became the political arm for the revolution. The protestors under the platform of NTC started demonstration and almost controlled the second largest city of Libya, Benghazi. In response to this public outcry, the Libyan Government started their counter offensive and started bombing the anti-government forces. Finally, the NTC captured Tripoli and eventually the regime slumped with the killing of Gaddafi.
Research Questions
The research will focus on the following research questions:
- How well the Theda Skocpol Model predicts, which countries in the Arab region did/did not experience Arab Spring uprisings?
- How well does the model hold up in the new case(s)?
Methodology
For a historical comparison, the researcher will use the secondary sources found in the form of research journals by eminent publishers. According to Theda Skocpol’s model of revolutions, the revolutions begin with the “Crisis of State” that is initiated by diverse international factors including the security and economic competition from the world. This condition of “crisis of state” is augmented by a second factor that involves the “Class Dominance” that identifies that which group will exploit the situation of revolution. The secondary sources will be analyzed, and it will be compared with the identified framework of Theda Skocpol.
Significance and Conclusion
Theda Skocpol Model of revolution was formulated in the year 1976 that based its research on the revolutions in France, China, and Russia. All of these revolutions are now centuries old that must be verified, if they are applicable in today’s world. This research will serve as a mechanism that can revive its significance to understanding the mechanism that give rise to revolutions. This may assist myriad countries that are in the transition process, so the losses that come along with revolutions can be avoided, and a peaceful alternative can be made available. The forces of globalization have reduced the communication gaps amongst the people throughout the world. People in this chunk of time are more aware of their rights and the ongoing situation of the world. Mass media and specifically Internet has helped connect the world and people even in the remotest part of the world are now the global citizens of the world. Technology has provided myriad means to people to express their concerns and their views to the world. People are now more prone to the drastic changes and societies are more prone to revolutions due to the easy access to numerous communication means. Due to these systematic changes in the global landscape, studying the framework of the factors that lead of Revolutions is necessary.
Bibliography
Haerens, Margaret. The Arab Spring. Detroit: Greenhaven Press, 2013.
Hyland, Lory. Revolutions. Dublin: Sitric Books, 2004.
McCaffrey, Paul. The Arab Spring. Ipswich, Mass.: H.W. Wilson, 2012.
Skocpol, Theda. "France, Russia, China: A Structural Analysis of Social Revolutions." JSTOR 18, no. 2 (1976): 175-210.
