India’s Economy and Population
Introduction
India exists as a peninsula in South Asia and it is surrounded by various water bodies like the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. The neighboring countries along the Indian border are China, Pakistan, Nepal, Burma, and Bhutan. The land size of the country is approximately 3,287,263 sq.km, and it is ranked 7th among the largest countries in the world (India Location para 2). India’s population is 1.33 billion, and 50% of this population comprises people aged below 25 years. The number of males is slightly higher than females, where sex ratio between males and females is 1000: 943 (India Location para 3). The current GDP of India is $ 2.4 trillion, which implies its economic size. Therefore, the per capita GDP value is approximate $1,747 measured at nominal level (StatisticsTimes n.p). The nominal value of PPP (purchasing power parity) of India’s GDP is $ 8.64 trillion (Chander n.p). The quality of life as expressed by the per capita GDP is $ 1,747. However, there is no perfect equality because the Gini Coefficient is 33.9%. Compared to China and Pakistan, the per capita income in India is relatively lower than China’s because China’s GDP per head is $10,165. However, the living standards in India are higher than in Pakistan since the GDP per capita in Pakistan is $1,561 (Chander n.p).
India’s demographic transition between the year 2000 and 2010
The fertility rate in India has declined significantly between the year 2000 and 2010. Thus, the trend in fertility rate can be described as declining. The major cause of this decline can be attributed to factors such as increased urban development which increase the urban migration, improved disease control methods which increase the rate of survival of infants, and enhanced medical facilities (Basu and Amin 783). However, the fertility rate has not reached the required level to stabilize the population.
The fertility rate has consistently declined from 2000 to 2010 (Goli and Arokiasamy para 8). The death rate has shown a dramatic decline between the year 2000 and 2009. The main cause of this decline is improved medical facilities during the period. The rate reduced drastically between the year 2006 and 2007. However, the death rate increased rapidly between 2009 and 2010. The birth rate has declined since the year 2000 although the rate is not consistent. The rate of birth increased slightly between 2006 and 2007 and continued to decrease. The annual rates of fertility, death, and birth are 2.83, 7.85, and 22.84 respectively. From these observations, it is clear that population growth rate has increased since the year 2000. The birth rate is considerably higher than death rate, resulting in population increase.
The rate of population increase has resulted from changes in the level of population in different parts of India. Variations in the rate of population growth have been attributed to the rate of change as well as different timing in various regions. Uttar Pradesh has the largest population while Lakshadweep represents the smallest state in terms of population size. The rate of population increase has occurred in all parts although it is not uniform. Some states like Delhi have high rates than others. Because the population of India is expected to reach the stability level, both fertility and death rates are expected to decline. The population is anticipated to grow to about 1.7 billion by 2051 (Goli, and Perianayagam para 11). In 2013, the population growth rate was 1.3%. If we compare the growth rate between China and India, the population growth rate of India seems higher because the rate of increase in China’s population was 0.5% as per 2013. However, if we compare population growth between India and Pakistan, we find that Pakistan's rate is higher since it was 1.6% in 2013 (U.S Census n.p). The possible cause of these deviations is that each country is struggling to attain a stable population. Since the population of China is higher than India’s, we expect its growth rate to be slightly lower. However, India’s population is higher than Pakistan’s. Therefore, the rate of population increase in India is expected to be lower than that of Pakistan. Although fertility rate has declined across the world, variations exist among countries. For example, in 2014, the fertility rates of India, China, and Pakistan were 2.51, 1.55, and 2.86 respectively. Therefore, population growth is expected to be different among the three countries.
Trends in GDP per capita in India between 2000 and 2010
However, exports have fallen while the rate of inflation increases and it mostly affects the consumer prices. For example, prices increased by 5.76% in 2016 compared to the previous year, resulting in an inflation of 3.78%. The agricultural sector makes fundamental contributions to the GDP per head. Agriculture contributes more than 14% of the GDP value, while more than 30% of the population depends on the agricultural sector. The common cash crops which constitute exports include cotton, rice, coffee, wheat, and some horticultural crops like fruits (Rada 9). Compared to China and Pakistan, the GDP per head in India is higher than in Pakistan and lower than in China. India’s current per capita GDP is approximate $ 1747, Pakistan's $ 1561, and China is $10165. The level of inflation in China is about 1.8% while that of India is roughly 3.78%. In Pakistan, the inflation rate is about 4.6%. This explains the varying levels of economic growth among the countries as well as the different living standards. In terms of exports, China has the highest export volume followed by India, then Pakistan. China is one of the leading countries in exports. For example, in 2011, it was ranked 3rd in export volume (Fan and Zhang 831). However, due to increased local consumption, there has not been an increasing trend in exports among the three countries. In terms of the contribution of agricultural sector to the GDP, Pakistan has the highest part of GDP that comes from agriculture. About 24% of Pakistan’s GDP comes from the agricultural sector. In China, agriculture contributes about 9.3% to the total value of GDP while in India it contributes about 14% (Fuglie 21).
Estimation of the annual growth
The annual growth can be estimated from the changes in demand, which can be obtained from variations in population, income elasticity, and GDP per capita. Income elasticity tends to be high, and this tendency depends on the allocation of the budget by the consumers. In low-income countries, food products have the highest income elasticity. The annual growth of India can be estimated using the formula;
∆demand =∆population+{elasticity×∆income per capita}
Works Cited
Basu, Alaka and Sajeda Amin. “Conditioning Factors for Fertility Decline in Bengal: History, Language Identity, and Openness to Innovations.” Population and Development Review 26.4 (2000): 761–794. Print
Fan, Shenggen, and Xiaobo Zhang. “Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture: New National and Regional Measures.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 50.4 (2002): 819–838. Web.
Fuglie, Keith O. "Productivity growth and technology capital in the global agricultural economy." Productivity growth in agriculture: an international perspective. Wallingford, UK, CAB International (2012).
Gale, Fred and Kuo Huang. USDA ERS - Demand for Food Quantity and Quality in China. 27 May 2012. Web.19 June 2016.
Goli, Srinivas, and Perianayagam Arokiasamy. "Demographic transition in India: An evolutionary interpretation of population and health trends using ‘change-point analysis’." PloS one 8.10 (2013): e76404. Web
Hansen, James, and Nora Brooks. USDA ERS - commodity and food Elasticities. 26 Aug. 2014. Web. 19 June 2016.
Chander, Mahesh. ECONOMIC SURVEY 2014-15 STATISTICAL APPENDIX. 2015. Web. 19 June 2016.
“India Location map, location of India, where is India.” 26 Mar. 2013. Web. 19 June 2016
StatisticsTimes. India GDP growth 2016. 2016. Web. 19 June 2016.
Rada, Nicholas E. "Agricultural growth in India: examining the post-green revolution transition." Selectect Paper, AAEA meetings. 2013.
“U.S. Census bureau. Historical population and growth rates in population for baseline. 1969-2014.” 25 Mar. 2016. Web. 19 June 2016.
