Forecast Failure Critical Thinking Sample

Introduction: The title of my chosen article is forecast failure: How flood warnings came too late for Southern Albertans. The article is authored by Trevor Howell and Matt Mcclure for the Calgary Herald. It was published in the Calgary Herald 2013. The article talks about a flood that occurred in the High River region of South Alberta. The forecasting agencies were late in issuing warnings to the residents of the High River region and, as a result, a lot of damages that could have been avoided occurred. This article is related to the larger topic of how delayed and inaccurate weather forecasts about impending natural catastrophic events like floods, storms and hurricanes can have adverse negative effects on residents. Delayed and inaccurate forecasts like the ones witnessed at the High River region have dire negative consequences on the lives of people. There should be coordination and accuracy in weather forecasts.Summary: Trevor Allan, a resident in the region, got to know about the impending flood the same morning it occurred. Within fifteen minutes after getting the information, the flood was already knee high. The provincial government forecasters who were supposed to alert the Albertans about potential dangers from swelling rivers failed in their job that morning. The warning from the provincial government forecaster’s deputy fire chief came when the river had already burst its banks. By the time, the residents received flood warning, the better portion of the town was already flooded. A Herald analysis suggests that there was laxity from the side of the forecasters. This is because around eight hours before the flood alarm was sounded, data streaming from Highwood River’s headwaters had already indicated that the town would be hit by a flood. The flood would be more serious than the 1995 flood that had seriously damaged the town. Only three people perished during the flood, a fact that made Chief Len Zebedee wonder whether it was good management of the disaster or good luck that made the number low. Data from the forecast centre showed that 50mm of rain fell that night in around three hours. This amount was expected to take around twelve hours to fall. Chandra Mahabir the section head of the forecasting team said that the reason the alarm was not issued was that the spike in collected data levels could have been caused by malfunctioning gauges. It is worth noting that all gauges were giving spiked readings, and therefore it was wrong to suspect a malfunction in all gauges. At the time when the flood warning was issued many people had gone to work, and their children were already in schools that would later be flooded. In the past, Alberta had held a reputation of first-class forecasting but that day the provincial forecasters were caught off-guard. The experience that the author brings out in the article is that in instances of disaster, logic should be used in preference to assumption. The forecasters should have reasoned out that the spike in readings from all gauges could not have been an instrument error that occurred in all the gauges. The key point in my chosen article is that delayed forecasting of climatic events like floods can be very disastrous to residents. The supporting evidence used to show this are descriptions of all destroyed properties and sample gauge readings. They prove that it was wrong to make an assumption that all was going to be well. The particular approach that has been used in the article is collection and analysis of data and information from forecasting stations or as reported by residents and other sources like the Calgary Herald. The writers of the article have made the assumption that readers will buy into their research findings. The article has considered opposing theories. For example, the forecasters argue that the reason the warning was not issued was that they suspected a malfunction in the gauges. To counter this theory, the research article considers the fact that all gauges were presenting spiked reading and therefore it was wrong to assume a malfunction in all of them. The main conclusion is that there was a failure from the forecaster’s side. Snodgrass, the new mayor, says that local officials will search precipitation readings online by themselves the next time there are heavy rains. The conclusion about failure from the forecasters follows the provided evidence that there were laxity and carelessness in handling received data. The article has made me understand that in forecasting climatic events, forecasters should rely on actual collected data not assumptions. The article was worth reading because it has enlightened me about the requirements of successful forecasting.