1. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
This is a gauge of the standard change over time in the prices waged by urban customers for a set market basket of customer merchandises. The CPI is deemed the most significant gauge of inflation.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) augmented 0.2 percent in 2010/2011 on a periodically adjusted source, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics accounted this year (2011). During the last 24 months, the all items index augmented 3.6 percent prior to periodical adjustment. The indicator for all items less food and energy augmented 0.3 percent in 2011, its biggest boost since 2008/2009. The indicators for attire, shelter, new autos, and leisure all added to the increase of rate, growing more in 2011 than in 2009. These augment more than counterbalance decreases in the indices for airline fee, tobacco, and individual care.
2. Producer Price Index (PPI)
This is a group of indices that gauges the standard change over time in the selling fees collected by local manufacturers of merchandises. PPI's determine price change from the viewpoint of the trader.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producer Price Index for finished merchandise increased by 0.2 percent in 2011, periodically adjusted. This increment pursued boosts of 0.8 percent in 2010 and 0.7 percent in 2009. At the previous phases of processing, fees obtained by producers of intermediate merchandise scaled upwards by 0.9 percent in 2011, and the crude merchandise index decreased by 4.1 percent. On an unattended source, fees for finished merchandise increased by 7.3 percent for the 12 months concluded on May 2011, the biggest year-over-year increment since an 8.8-percent progress in September 2008.
3. Employment Situation: Unemployment Rate
The government's employment account offers information on the unemployment rate and the unemployed people’s number by profession, industry, period of unemployment, and grounds for unemployment.
Unemployment rate heightened at 10.2% in 2009. It climbed progressively from its low of 4.4% in 2007. It did not actually turn out to be a concern until a year later when it became above 5% in 2008. By this time, the economy had thinned by 0.7%. Unemployment rate augmented speedily, becoming 7.2% by November 2008. Unemployment rate in the US had not been so elevated since the 1983 recession. Unemployment rate is proposed to fall faintly to 9.7% by the end of 2011, consistent with OMB's Mid-Year Budget Projections. By the end of 2012, OMB forecasts it will fall considerably, to 8%. Afterwards, it will decrease slowly, decreasing to 7.5% in 2013, 6.5% in 2014, and 5.7% in 2015.
4. Housing Starts
Housing starts is one of the most important economic indicators. A higher-than-anticipated augment in housing starts activates economic growth and is deemed inflationary, prompting bond values to drop and yields and interest rates to increase.
According to Nationwide seasonally adjusted house prices increased in the US over the quarter to Q1 2011 (a 1.0% rise in the US as a whole). Within the states, there was a mixed picture. Manhattan, California & Florida were the only sub-regions to see prices rise over the quarter. Ohio & Illinois, Alaska, and Minnesota saw the greatest decline in prices (-4%). There was a significant increase in house purchase lending in 2011 building on the increase seen in 2010. However lending in 2011 is still down on lending in 2010 (-17%).
5. Auto sales
Both economists and investors very closely watch retail Sales. This pointer tracks the dollar worth of commodities sold inside the retail trade by obtaining a sampling of companies occupied in the industry of selling products to customers. Both fixed point-of-sale businesses and non-store retailers are employed in the data sample. Companies of all sizes are employed in the analysis.
6. Oil and Fuel prices
Fuel prices fell during the financial crisis but have been rapidly rising in recent months, reaching a record average price of $13 per litre of unleaded petrol and 14 per litre of diesel in 2011. Fuel prices are largely determined by the global price of oil and the level of domestic taxation. The fuel price increases since 2010 have been heavily influenced by rising oil prices. In particular, the political instability in the oil producing regions of North Africa and the Middle East since early 2011 has driven prices upwards as a result of concerns about disruption to the supply of oil. Continued or increased instability is likely to push prices up even further. Two types of domestic taxation are applied to road fuel prices in the US; VAT and excise duty. These currently make up around 60% of the price of petrol and diesel. Increases in both of these in January 2011 will also have contributed to rising petrol prices. An extra 0.76p duty was applied to both petrol and diesel on the 1st of January and VAT rose from 17.5% to 20% on the 4th of January. The AA estimated that these two increases added around 3.5p to the cost of a litre of both petrol and diesel. Rising fuel prices at the start of 2011 increased the pressure on the US Government to help car owners by cutting duty.
7. inflation, interest and exchange rates
Despite an unexpected slowdown in inflation in 2011, inflation (CPI) rose over the month to reach 4.5%. In particular, the increase was driven by rising travel costs (particularly air transport) and is attributed partly to the timing of Easter which was in April 2011 compared to 2010. Inflation (CPI) still lies well above the central bank’s 2% target, and is likely to continue to remain above it in the near term - driven by high commodity prices. This has led to some expectation that the Bank of America may raise interest rates as a tool to reduce inflation. However, some economists are more concerned that higher interest rates, which would increase the cost of borrowing for consumers, could put at risk the still fragile economic recovery. On 5 May, the Bank of America Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain bank rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at $200bn. The Committee minutes reveal that most members feel that, although in time some withdrawal of stimulus would become necessary, increasing the bank rate in current circumstances could adversely affect consumer confidence. The American Central Bank increased its main interest rate from 1% to 1.25% in April, highlighting their focus on their primary task of combating inflation. Decline in the dollar Exchange Rate Index (ERI) represents a relative improvement in US competitiveness (imports become more expensive and exports cheaper). The economic circumstances, which have unfolded since 2007 mean that the ERI is now around 20% below what is was over the period 2005-2007. This will have improved the competitiveness of US exports. The downside is an increase in the price of imported goods
References
Census Economic Briefing Rooms http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/briefroom/BriefRm
White House Economic Statistics Briefing Room http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/esbr.htm
Economic Time Series http://www.economagic.com/
