Chapter V
Discussion of Results and Conclusions
This dissertation began with a quote from Raphael and Espiau (2010, par. 9) describing the positive outcomes that are the goals of TOD. Those goals include offering a high quality of life, healthy neighborhoods, and increased public transit infrastructure. The goals are expected to create equitable communities because jobs and equal access to facilities and services exist. Hollywood in Los Angeles County (LAC) has had especially challenging problems due to the sheer number of cars and people involved in the congestion of the highways. The LAC Metro has been a forerunner in the U.S. in organizing bus routes with ease of access and traffic signal priority so BRT stops would coincide with arrivals of bus riders from mass transit to the city’s center (Thorne-Lyman et al., 2011). This research has established that the three Hollywood TOD neighborhoods studied were successful in terms of affordable housing, mass transit ridership, land use and income distribution. The data on the change in income distribution from 2000 to the recent times are the weakest, but taken with the other three measurements, the income distribution values support the generally positive outcome of the TOD projects. These outcomes are discussed below.
Discussion
During the first phase of the Hollywood Western project sixty affordable housing, two-story units were added. Their location was purposely located with direct access to the Metro Red Line. The second phase of the TOD included the construction of 70 more affordable housing units three to four stories. Thorne-Lyman (et al., 2011,) reported a project to build additional affordable rental housing in Los Angeles County (LAC) with 90 units, but only general information was attached. The general trend of new affordable housing due to TOD has been positive and growing. The best data on housing was available from the U.S. Census of 2000 and 2010 for the city of West Hollywood. In 2000, 18,570 rental units could be found (with a 2.4 percent vacancy rate). Whereas, in 2010, the number of rental units had grown to 18,644, an increase of 74 units (with a 5.9 percent vacancy rate).
The number of rental unit increase coincided with an increase in households having more than one occupant. In 2000, the number of single person households was 13,990. Approximately, 61 percent of the total single occupant households were persons age 65 years and older. Single occupant households numbered13,434 in 2010; while those households with two to three occupants accounted for approximately 37 percent of the total. Evidence of more varied types of households was noted in the 2010 census compared to the 2000 census. Although the categories resulting from the questions were somewhat changed from 2000 to 2010, a variety of household membership was higher in 2010. More people were rooming together, or 2-3 person families were living in rental units.
Significant increase in Hollywood Metro ridership after TOD
In 2011, LAC was rated as the third urban area in the U.S. with the largest regional employment percentage within one-half mile of rail and bus stations. The most dramatic change in ridership took place at the new Hollywood Blvd. and Highland Avenue station where peak times require six extra car trains on the Red Line.
Throughout the Metro system, including the lines and stations for Hollywood, numbers of riders increased to higher than expected levels. For example, the predictions for potential riders to L.A.’s business district center on the Red and Purple Lines in North Hollywood were for 20,000 more riders. The total annual boardings for 2014 were far beyond the prediction; 38 million annual boardings took place indicating a steep increase in ridership.
Survey results collected by the LAMTA showed that the ‘number of people with cars and other alternate transport methods available but still preferred mass transit’ increased from 22 percent in 2002 to 34 percent in 2006. The increasing trend in ridership from 2002 to 2006 continued after TOD projects were completed.
Measurable changes to land use policies due to TOD in Hollywood
The land use in North Hollywood Arts district (NoHo) is visually dramatic as well as dramatically changing the daily use of the area. The pedestrian traffic increased during the day, but the largest increase was during evening hours. People visited the park facilities and shopped (Parker et al., 2002). The TOD added a Metro station in Noho connecting four bus lines that run with 20 to 40 minutes frequency. Noho Arts Park, near a Red Line bus stop, anchors the TOD project. The park was designed well, and a retail area is now available next to the park. The stores and businesses that rent spaces there are located where previously there were only vacant lots. Eight new businesses including a Starbucks are available in the commercial area. More parking spaces were recently added across from the park to accommodate visitors.
In the Hollywood Western project a10 thousand square foot commercial area was added and included a child care center. One hundred thirty affordable housing units (in 2, 3, and 4 story designs) were added. Therefore the land use was changed because residential and retail areas had not previously existed.
The Hollywood/Highland area changed land use in terms of adding retail space amounting to 640 thousand square feet. In total 1.3 million square feet of land use was changed by additional construction to accommodate underground parking for 3 thousand spaces. Anew transit station and transit facilities are available. Original land use did not necessarily change, but increased land use mix was the result of the TOD. In order to accomplish the land use plan, eight land parcels were consolidated.
Income distribution change after implementation of TOD in Hollywood
Income can be judged by increased work opportunities and more retail businesses. These two features were most evident in NoHo Arts Park and Hollywood Highland projects. More than thirty jobs were created and the number of retail businesses increased in NoHo. The Hollywood Highland project created jobs because of the sharp increase in Metro ridership, leading to more consumer traffic at the visitor movie-industry attractions.
The 2011 household income distribution showed a large range of households in the midrange. The 2011 numbers complement the evidence of 2011 home values distribution which reflected the same large midrange allocation.
The West Hollywood city data reported a change in per capita income change from 2000 to 2009 to be +67.8 percent. Whereas the median household income during the same time changed by +112.8 percent. The change in median non-family income, also from 2000 to 2009, was reported at +26 percent. These positive changes in median income strengthen the argument that TOD was a success in Hollywood, LAC.
Recommendations
Streamlining regulations for long-term affordable housing programs as recommended by Haughey and Sherriff (2010, p.26).
Standardize measurements and define what constitutes success like Mo (et al., 2010, p. 25) recommended. The researchers suggested that other features can be integral to producing a successful TOD design than what has been conventionally used until now.
Collecting as much data as possible is helpful in creating a clearer picture of the difference in the neighborhood before and after TOD projects have been completed. This research needed to search for data in diverse places to come up with a report for the Hollywood area but gaps remain. Improvements on the current research collection and distribution would be useful. A resource database with values important to planning, designing and implementing TOD projects in the U.S. and other dense urban sites in the world would be very helpful.
Suggestions for Further Research
The rental vacancy increase of 3.5 percent at the end of the decade for the city of West Hollywood has not been explained. It would be helpful to find the dates for when rental units were built and other influences in future research.
A study focused on whether or not TOD had influenced gentrification in Hollywood neighbors would be interesting. In other neighborhoods across the country TOD has been used to discourage gentrification by encouraging mixed-income housing close to mass transit stations. The results of this review demonstrated strong indicators of increased mixed income residency in Hollywood. Residents with mid-range incomes were shown to be increasing. In order to understand the degree of influence of TOD on housing prices, the conditions of local housing marketing needs to be evaluated. The housing market needs be evaluated from 1990 to 2014 so comparisons in the income level can be made over time. According to Belzer (et al., 2007, p. 22) some of the characteristics that indicate gentrification are the unavailability of low-income housing, rental housing is not available next to transit stations, and developers for the high market customer rarely develop diverse income housing.
In order to address the issue of equitable neighborhoods, one very important measurement, race, was not considered in this research, but it would make a very good future research project. Boland (2011) made a start at this theme of research (See table A-3). The L.A. Unified School District (LAUSD) has made available more detailed and more up-to-date data about the race of students entering their schools. Therefore, it would be possible to gather data, organize the data, and report on shifts in race at the Hollywood from 2000 to the present. The data could be organized firstly, by sorting the LAUSD data by school districts falling within the three regions used for the present research. LAUSD offers data on public and private elementary, middle and high schools. Data on early child care facilities is also available at the same site. After the appropriate data is divided between the three regions NoHo Arts District, Hollywood/Western and Hollywood/Highland a database could be constructed on the race, age, location per year for 14 years, of the students located in the district. It is expected that the changes will be evident in the number of whites, blacks, Hispanic/Latino, Asian, American Indian and Filipino students, and other races such as Asian Indian may be evident. The change between 2000 and 2014 would add valuable information to decide whether or not the Hollywood TOD projects had become more racially mixed.
Another variable reported in the LAUSD resources are the number and race of children in English as a Second Language (ESL) classes. The ESL information has the potential of being used as another way to measure the amount of mix in the population densities in the three Hollywood TOD project areas. The data available about ESL class memberships could be used for comparison to the race data.
The same resource (LAUSD) can be used to make a database on information related indirectly to the income of the families. For example, the LAUSD reports the number of children who are qualified to receive free lunches. (See table A-1)
Conclusion
The Three D’s of density, diversity and design were met especially well in the Hollywood Highland project where the Kodak Theater located at Hollywood and Vine was the anchor for the project. The TOD project successfully increased density, increased the land use mix, and increased employment.
The Five P’s strategy using place, performance, people, pedestrian and bike conductivity and physical form was met especially well in the North Hollywood Arts District project. Places: The NoHo Art Park is located on land that had been vacant and unattractive. The change was dramatic because the park became an attractive where once the area had been ugly. Vacant lots were used for a commercial site for small businesses near the park. The residential land tracts increased in value as measured by increases in the fees for building permits. Performance: People were drawn to the area from the neighborhood and from outside the area in order to enjoy the park, the shopping and art galleries in the area. The popularity of the area was possible because residents could walk or bicycle (Pedestrian and Bike Connectivity) to the area and others could arrive using the improved transportation. The physical form of the location had changed into small, walkable blocks with ample width and smooth surfaces for easy walking. Using a holistic view to transform the location as TOD worked very well. Noho gained a unique urban character that reflected its character as an artistic haven in a huge city.
One of the most valuable lessons of the research was from Thorne-Lyman (et al. 2011, p. 21) who recognized that people want to live closer to their jobs without having to deal with traffic and congestion, but that does not mean they want houses closer to their work. In fact, she observed that the connection of dense job clusters has a larger influence on positive increases in mass transit ridership than does increasing housing construction.
Urban planning based on TOD has shown a positive capability to raise the quality of life in neighborhoods and raise the ridership numbers on mass transit. The encouraging effects of TOD in Portland, Denver, and San Francisco demonstrate the logic of using TOD to produce the same effect in Hollywood. The study conducted here, focusing on Hollywood, strongly indicates that TOD has improved the three Hollywood neighborhoods where TOD urban planning and actions were applied. NoHo, Hollywood/Highland, and West Hollywood were similar in many ways before the development, particularly in terms of land use and in lack of racial and income diversity. Now the three areas are unique in many ways. NoHo is the ‘SoHo of California’ and known as a center of art. Hollywood/Highland has increased mass transit dramatically. The Hollywood/Western TOD project increased affordable housing near mass transit entrances. The land use changed due to the addition of affordable housing and a large commercial area. TOD is a complex type of urban planning and development. Each location is unique, but the positive results in Hollywood demonstrate that positive change towards equitable and healthier communities is possible.
References
Atkinson, R. (2000). "The hidden costs of gentrification: Displacement in central London." Journal of Housing and the Built Environment 15, 307-326.
Arrington, G.B. & Cervero, R. Effects of TOD on Housing, Parking, and Travel. (2008). Transit Cooperative Research Program, National Academy of the Sciences, Washington, D.C. available from http://www.trb.org
Belzer, D., Hickey, R. Lawson, W., Poticha, S. & Wood, J. (2007). The Case for Mixed Income Transit-Oriented development in the Denver Region, Center for Transit Oriented Development, Reconnecting America, Available from www.reconnectingamerica.org/assets/Uploads/enterprise.pdf
Boland, S. (2011). Spring. “What happened in Hollywood? Evaluating the need for affordable housing in transit and redevelopment areas.” Senior Comprehensive Thesis.Urban and Environmental Policy. http://www.oxy.edu/sites/default/files/assets/UEP/Comps/2011/Shane%20Boland_What%20Happened%20in%20Hollywood%20Affordable%20Housing.pdf
Cleeland, N. (2006). “There Goes the Enrollment - Los Angeles Times.” LA Times. June 11, http://articles.latimes.com/2006/jun/11/local/me-enroll11.
“Evans, J. E., Pratt, R.H., Stryder, A., & Kuzmyak, J.R.(2007). Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 95, Federal Transit Administration, http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=14077&page=R1
Fowler, W., & Neilson, G. (1972). “Relation between Transit Ridership and Walking Distance sin a Low Density Florida Retirement Area” Highway Research Record No.403:407-421
(GRC) Great Communities Collaborative. (2007).Transit-Oriented for All: The case for Mixed-income Transit-oriented communities in the Bay area. A Great Communities Collaborative Framing Paper, Community Innovation, http://communityinnovation.berkeley.edu/publications/GCCFramingPaper_FINAL.pdf
Gans, H. J. (1962). The urban villagers: Group and class in the life of Italian-Americans. New York: Free Press of Glencoe. Print.
H.U.D. (2008 Oct.). “The Real New Starts” Report CA-26-6004, 2007 Reconnecting America, http://www.hud.gov
HUD (Department of Housing and Urban Development). (2013 Aug. 9). “Transit Oriented Development” U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), http://www.hud.gov/offices/cpd/about/conpLos Angelesn/tod.cfm
Haughey, R. & Sherriff, R. (2010). “Challenges and policy options for creating and preserving affordable housing near transit and in other location-efficient areas” Center for Housing Policy, National Housing Conference and What Works Collaborative
Heffernan, K. (2006). Preserving and Promoting Diverse Transit-Oriented Neighborhoods: Summary Report. Center for TOD: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Reconnecting America, &Strategic Economics, http://www.cnt.org/media/CNT_diverseTOD_SummaryReport.pdf
Helms, A.C. (2003). Understanding gentrification: An empirical analysis of the determinants of urban housing renovation. Journal of Urban Economics, 54: 474-498.
LA Metro. (2013). http://metroprimaryresources.info/
L. A. Metro. (2010 August 16). “Report 5, Final Land Use and Development Opportunities: Environmental Impact/Environmental Consequences,” Westside Subway Extension, pp.5-29 to 5-32
LAUSD. (2014). Los Angeles Unified School District. http://home.lausd.net/
Levinson, H.S., Ryus, P., Schofer, J.L., Semler, C., Parks, J., Coffel, K., Sampson, D., & Kachadoorian, C. (2012). TCRP Report 153: Guidelines for providing access to public transportation stations, (TRB) Transportation Research Board, (NAS) National Academy of Sciences, http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record _id=14614
Lund, H.M., Cervero, R., & Willson (2004). Travel characteristics of transit-oriented development in California. Caltrans Transportation Grant-“Statewide Planning Studies”-FTA Section 5313(b).
Mathur, S. & Ferrell, C. (2013). Measuring the impact of suburban transit oriented developments (TOD) on single family home values. Transportation Research, 47: 42-55.
Metro LA County. (2010). “Final Land Use and Development Opportunities Report 5.0 Environmental Impact/Environmental Consequences,” Metro LA County, pp. 5-29-5-34
Mo, B. (2009). “GIS Network Analysis for Finding the Potential Metro Rail Ridership in Los Angeles County” 2010 AASHTO GIS for Transportation Symposium, .http://www.gis-t.org/files/bCRt4.pdf
Olaru, D., Smith, B. & Taplin, J.H.E. (2011). Residential location and transit-oriented development in a new rail corridor. Transportation Research Part A, 2011: 219-237.
O'Sullivan, S., & Morrall, J. 1996. “Walking Distance to and From Light – Rail Transit Stations”. Transportation Research Record 1538, 19-26. National Research Council (U.S.).Transportation Research Board
Pollack, S., Bluestone, B. & Billingham, C. (2010 Oct.) “Maintaining diversity in America’s transit-rich neighborhoods: Tools for Equitable Neighborhood Change,” Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy, 68 pp.
Raphael, Craig & Espiau, Renee. (2010). “Smart Transportation investments for our future” Project for Public Spaces, http://www.pps.org/reference/asmartinvestmentforourfuture/
“Reconnecting America’s Center for Transit-Oriented Development.” (2008). Realizing the Potential: Expanding House Opportunities Near Transit, Federal Transit Administration and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, “The Real New Starts” Report CA-26-6004, 2007
Schalch, K. (2008 April). “Home Prices Drop Most in Areas with Long Commute, National Public Radio, l, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89803663
Singleton, P.A & Clifton, K.J. (2012). “Pedestrians in regional travel demand forecasting models: State-of-the-practice,” Paper 13-4857, Submitted for the presentation at the 92nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (January 13-17, 2013), National Academy of Sciences.
Smart Growth. (2013). “HUD-DOT-EPA Partnership for Sustainable Communities.” Environmental Protection Agency, http://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/partnership/
T4America (Transportation for America). (2008). “Build for America: A five-point plan to get our economy moving.” T4America, http://t4america.org/docs/buildforamerica.pdf
TRB (Transportation Research Board) of the National Academies). (2004). “Transit-Oriented Development in the United States: Experiences, challenges, and prospects.” TCRP Report 102, Transit Cooperative Research Program, Sponsored by the Federal Administration, Washington, D.C.: Transit Cooperative Research, Program, http://www.national-academies.org /trb/bookstore
Thorne-Lyman, Wood, Zimbabwe, S., Belzer, S. Breznau, Fogarty, N., Brennan, T., Tumlin, J., & Yake, C. (2011).Transit-Oriented Development Strategic Plan / Metro TOD Program.” CTOD, http://ctod.org/portal/book/export/html/2317
Tiwari, R., Cervero, R. and & Schipper, L.(2011). Driving CO2 reduction by integrating transport and urban design strategies. Cities, 28: 394-405.
Treasury (Department of the Treasury with Council of Economic Advisers). (2012). “A new economic infrastructure investment.” U. S. Treasury, http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/economic-policy/Documents/20120323InfrastructureReport.pdf
Appendices
Appendix A-1
Figure A- 1 Map of LOS ANGELES County Metro Rail System 2009
(Source: Mo et al., p. 17)
Appendix A-2
Figure A- 2 Potential Metro Rail Ridership by Walking
(Source: Mo et al., p. 17)
Appendix A-3
(Source: Data reports http://data.lausd.net/ cited by Boland, 2011)
