Terrorism
Forecast 1: The number of offenses reported to the police involving computers and electronic storage media will continue to increase substantially, requiring changing priorities for resource allocation, new training for line officers and investigators, new police specialties, and new knowledge for prosecuting attorneys and judges.
Electronic devices that store data are becoming varied and easily accessible. All of them are potential goldmine for investigators. At the same time their storage capacity is increasing; their size is getting smaller; and their prices plummeting. Against this background, modern criminal are using these devices in ways which are unfamiliar to investigators and concerned citizen. Investigating agencies are finding it challenging to examine large amount of data in these increasing number of devices; in a timely manner with their limited resources. At the same time offenders are getting increasingly skilled in concealing information.
Against this background, Indiana State Police is forming strategic alliances. Their major partnerships are with Purdue University Department of Computer and Information Technology and the National White Collar Crime Center (NW3C). NW3C will provide Indianan State Police training and networking opportunity in the field of financial crimes. In return, the state police will provide them an opportunity to test their new hypothesises. Similarly, Purdue University is rich in computer researchers and they will gain valuable field experience working alongside the police.
Criminals involved in cybercrimes are also involved with other kind of crimes in general; something that is not explored due to volume of data. Students from Purdue University will be very useful in analyzing this large data. Similarly, their association with NW3C, which spans geographically spread out jurisdictions, will allow them to communicate information and coordinate action. Also, Indiana State Police realized the need for greater interaction between investigators and examiners to have clear understanding of the issues. Consequently, they started pilot program to conduct on-scene examination. This saved them considerable time which was typically lost when devices had to be sent to remote places for analysis.
As it takes considerable amount of time to train a computer forensic examiner, the Indian State Police, in conjunction with it partners, has developed a tired approach called “computer forensic field triage”. Under this program various detectives get training from Purdue and NW3C. This allows them to share information with their peers on the scene. Finally, it is important that investigators become adept in articulating to the courts the complexity of the digital devices and the need to conduct through examination.
Forecast 2: The largest computer crime problem affecting local law enforcement representing the largest number of victims and the largest monetary loss will be Internet fraud, including fraud via identify theft.
According to , policymakers are deeply concerned about economic health, and particular the crimes that threaten to undermine the financial stability; identity theft being the major cause of concern. Identity fraud is committed in conjunction with other forms of financial crimes; together they can have a significant negative impact no only on its economy, but also its security. Ever since the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) started recording complaints, they increased from 2000 to 2008. They came down in 2009 and 2010, before starting to rise again.
It states that the Congress is continues to debate the role of government in this regard. In particular about; preventing identity theft related crimes; mitigating its effect when it occurs; and to provide tools to investigate and prosecute identity theft. Regarding issues concerning identity theft, policymakers are focused around restricting the use of Social Security Numbers (SSNs) in public and private sectors. Regarding mitigating the effects of thefts that have already occurred, they are focused on strengthening data breach notification requirements. Finally, coming to aspect of investigation and prosecution, they are contemplating various legislations and administrative actions to curtail identity thefts.
Forecast 3: Virtual crimes against persons will increase at a faster rate compared with past years as a result of the significant expansion in networking, personal computing, and social networking sites. These hybrid crimes, which have coercive characteristics similar to those found in psychological warfare, will require new laws expressly to address the problem and new methodologies for investigation, prevention, and education
According to , rapid advancement in communication technologies had improved sharing of information and collaboration. This has created avenues for people to maintain connections and facilitated creation of online communities. It has also facilitated those who are in illegitimate sector; even those who may be working for criminal organizations. In response, law enforcement agencies and social media experts believe that former need to continue to use social media to connect with the communities they serve. This will help them to connect with and respond to their community. It will also help them to monitor disruptive events and activities. This would require police officers to have greater training in computers and open source information gathering. It has been suggested the police offices acquaint themselves with various social media sites; it should be accepted they would want to use it for personal reasons; but they should exercise caution about what they post on their personal page; and a set of principles and guidelines should be created about how they should obtain evidence from scene where computers are involved.
It was also felt that those making illegitimate use of social media do not keep information on the site; they use to maintain their connections. It has been suggested that any kind of correlation between the demographic characteristics of person on social media and those involved in crime as be used to identify them ahead of time.
Forecast 4: Computer hacker groups will emerge in developing countries around the world, increasing the threat of malicious attacks motivated by religion, politics, and money.
According to , “with increased internet access and smartphone use across Latin America, Asia and Africa, organized crime networks are exploiting vulnerabilities to extend their reach – sometimes with violent results”. According to Khoo Bon Hui, the then Interpol president, the cost of the cybercrime perpetuated by international gangs is greater than the combined proceeds from drug trafficking. Most of the developing countries have become a hub of cybercrime as detection and controls are lax or even non-existent. To prepare itself from such contingencies, European Union has kept aside $60 million in training programs. Most of it will be used for developing capacity of developing in countering cybercrime. The need for a world wide effort in this direction is gaining ground. In one such effort, the Budapest Convention attempts to harmonize laws against cybercrime. It has been ratified by 40 countries and signed by 11. Among major countries to stay away are Russia and China.
Forecast 5: Current organized crime groups, particularly those that are entrepreneurial, will increasingly adopt computerization as a criminal instrument.
According to , globalization has brought revolution to both licit and illicit commerce. Commercial and technological innovations have brought down barriers; internet and cellular networks have taken it even further. Concern is raised about the use of these integrated financial systems, which allow movement of money globally, to be used by criminals to launder proceeds from illicit trade. These organized criminals have necessary IT tools which have allowed them to commit fraud and harm US citizens without even being present in the country. Ever since the 9/11 there has been shift in focus of law enforcement agencies away from traditional crime fighting activities. Later in July 2011, the US administration issues Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime. It accepts that, like FBI is mandated to work on terrorism, there is no such agency to tackle organized crime. It contemplates Congress exerting its oversight regarding coordination of response against organized crime.
Forecast 6: Terrorist groups will increasingly use global networking as a tool to accomplish their goals. This includes use of the Internet for recruitment, surreptitious communications, and coordination purposes as well as attempting to use network access to critical infrastructure systems to strike for their cause via the creation chaos, disinformation, and file destruction-cyberterrorism
According to , technological innovations in the hands of terrorists can exemplify their darker side. And the user of internet is no exception to this. Consequently, world of internet has been used by terrorists to around the world to recruit supporters, raise funds for their cause, and spread fear across the world. They wage psychological warfare via internet by posting propaganda and techniques to manufacture explosives devices. The use of internet also allows their autonomous cells to communicate and coordinate with their efforts. They use it to even conduct public savvy campaigns to gain sympathy towards their cause. However, in spite of potential devastating use of internet by terrorist, it is advisable that policymakers working towards combating terrorism should be cautious about the control they put in place to monitor online activity.
Forecast 7: The character of espionage will continue to broaden into the arenas of information warfare, economic espionage, and theft of intellectual property.
According to , nations face different kinds cyber-based threats from sources such as; criminal groups; hackers; terrorists; organization insiders; and foreign nations engaged in crime. By using such techniques, the attackers target both businesses and individuals. This has potential to cause loss of sensitive personal or proprietary information. This can have serious repercussions including; compromise of personal information, such as credit and debit card information; and theft of business’s IP addresses. To protect against such threats, there are certain techniques available, which control access to system, ensure integrity of the system; and encrypt sensitive data. Various federal agencies are responsible for wide ranging activities including; Department of Commerce; Justice; and Homeland Security.
Forecast 8: Criminals terrorist, nation-states, patriots, and anarchists will increasingly use technology-based instruments and methodologies, which can surreptitiously capture data/information or destroy technological communications, information processing, and/or storage appliances
According to , similar approach can be used by criminals, terrorists, nation-states, patriots, and anarchists to capture data/information or even destroy technological communications, information processing, and/or storage appliances.
Bibliography
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Finklea, K. (2014, 01 16). Identity Theft: Trends and Issues. Retrieved from Congressional Research Service: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40599.pdf
Frank, D., Cheng, C., & Pun, V. (2011, Aug). Social Media Sites: New Fora for Criminal, Communication, and Investigation Opportunities. Retrieved from Public Safety Canada: http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2012/sp-ps/PS14-5-2011-eng.pdf
Garson, P. (2013, Dec 10). Cybercriminals find wonderland in developing countries. Retrieved from Open Security: http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/philippa-garson/cybercriminals-find-wonderland-in-developing-countries
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