In this video, Leonard Mlodinow discussed the incorrect conclusions about events that many people make because of the misunderstanding of randomness. We process information based on our own experience rather than through the use of statistical theory, and we are unaware of the effect uncontrollable events have on our lives. Mlodinow described research studies that have shown people need to feel they have control over events in their lives, even when they consciously know they do not. People’s perceptions are also influenced by expectations. Because you may expect one thing to happen, you may think it does, even if something else actually occurs.
One example Mlodinow gave of incorrect conclusions was a championship series in the world of sports. It is generally believed that in a seven game series, the best team will usually prevail. However, based on statistical theory, if the superior team has a 55-45 edge over the inferior team, the inferior team as a 40% chance of winning the series. In order for the inferior team to only have a 25% chance to win, the series would need to be expanded to 45 games. In order for the inferior team to have a statistically significant 5% or less chance of winning the series, the teams would need to play 269 games.
Watching this video will change the way I view probabilities reported in the media, if only because I am now aware that things are not always what they seem to be because of our misunderstandings about randomness. We must be careful about making conclusions based on statistical information, and we need to understand the statistical basis for the conclusion before accepting it as truth.
Works Cited
Mlodinow, Leonard. “Talks at Google.” Online video clip. YouTube. YouTube, 28 May 2008. Web. 24 June 2016.
