Individual State Reports
Region: South
EC Votes:
2008 Election: Obama 37.89% McCain 59.42%
2012 Election: Obama 40.81% Romney 54.80%
2016 Poll Numbers GOP
New York Times: Cruz 18% Trump 35% Rubio 12%% Ben 6% Kasich 11%
Rasmussan Poll Cruz 17% Trump 36% Rubio 21% Ben 8% Kasich 12%
Region: South
EC Votes:
2016 Poll Numbers GOP
New York Times: Cruz 15% Trump 34% Rubio 15%% Ben 4% Kasich 10%
Rasmussan Poll Cruz 19% Trump 39% Rubio 23% Ben 7% Kasich 12%
Alaska and Wyoming as a northern and western state respectively, has been in support for republican candidature for the last two elections. Alaska has 3 Electoral College and 28 delegates are going to participate in the upcoming primary polls, the Super Tuesday 1st march. With the recent finished Hampshire and South Carolina State’s primary elections and Donald trump won by 84 and 86 percentages respectively, there is high probability that Donald trump is likely to the two states. Since Carson had some meetings with the Ted Cruz recently. It’s observed that he shift his attention on something else; maybe he is planning to support Cruz in the two primaries.
My prediction to caucus election of Alaska for GOP is that Trump will secure 86%, Ted Cruz 10% and Rubio 3% while the remaining candidates will get zero votes while for the Wyoming State, Trump will win with 70%, Ted 28% and Rubio will get 1%. All these is predicted in accordance to the recently done research by both New York Times and as compared to the outcome of the recently concluded Hampshire and South Carolina states. At the moment the wave for Trump is huge and there is voter demos on the side of republican who are now considering casting their hope on one candidate preferable Trump. Since Wyoming is sparsely populated, potential candidates Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio do not give much attention to this state currently and are now focusing his campaigns on the states like Arkansas and Minnesota primaries which is likely to take place on March 1st too. Therefore Trump stands a better chance to take the lead in these two states.
After these two state primaries it is predicted that candidates such as John Kasich and Ben Carson are probably to drop their bid to be republican candidates in the USA general elections. This is due to fact that they have not garnered even a single vote from the delegates from the recently concluded primaries. As shown from the above data for the last two elections, as a southern state that has gone solid Republican in the last two elections, the Republican delegates are crucial in this state. The Democrats do not do as well in Alabama, so the delegate count is not as high. The Democrats are spending more time in New York and Illinois. This can be contributed to the fact that these are the areas where their lead candidate, Barack Obama, needed to work harder in order to lead by higher margin. It also shown that Alabama has turned toward Cruz since his big win in Florida and the Duck Dynasty crowd has really helped here. An interesting element of the Republicans in Alabama is that the male vote looks heavily Cruz, but the female actually leans more Rubio. Rand Paul seems to have taken some of his Virginia momentum and has moved up in the Alabama polls the last week. His delegate count is low, but who knows – he could be positioning for a veep spot or consideration.
In the end, I think the New York Times poll is accurate, but I give Cruz 45% instead and the extra goes into the surging Rubio. This is a better way to do forecast for the two individuals, since it gives an accurate picture of the modern day campaigns. Both Cruz and Rubio are exerting their efforts towards this campaign, as evident in the amount of money that they splash in this region. They show too much concentration in this region, and most of all they have some background attached to the region. Consequently, it would only be best if the forecast depicts sharing of the votes.
The GOP remains interesting if this plays out. I think this does narrow the field as Rand Paul is not viable anymore. This is as shown by the bad reputation depicted by the poll, showing that Rand Paul garners little votes that can bring him up as a best candidate for the race. With the polls out, the delegates are also ready to play by this since they want to come out with a figure that would allow them to clinch the seat of American presidency. The polls are a likely indication of the best candidate to be used against the tight competition presented by the Republican Party. The Republican Party will also come up with the best candidate, most likely Donald Trump who is much favored by polls. Popularity of Donald Trump and the way he has been trending on the internet is also a good indication that it might be yet another tight race towards the white house. I think he says goodbye now and then the question becomes, “where does his support turn?” I think he personally dislikes Cruz and will turn to Rubio. That makes Rubio a tough act heading into Ill Tuesday. It will be interesting to see where this turns after Super Tuesday. This is a decider of who American president will be and therefore it might be a tight race that the Democrat delegates must give their all.
