Relations between Russia and USA have been on the knife edge because Russia experienced instability and civil disturbance after the disintegration and many analysts predicted that the world had seen the last of Russia as a true global force. But, under the leadership of Putin and his United Russia party has overseen a period of strong development driven by dominance of Europe’s energy sector. Nearly all of Europe’s Natural Gas requirements are being met by the Russian wells and such that the former Soviet exerts a strong influence in this area especially on the Eastern European nations who are dependent on it for a variety of reasons. The NATO’s old nemesis Warsaw Pact had became dysfunctional after the communist union’s collapse, but this axis of alliance between Russia and European states is being seen by the North Atlantic military alliance as a potential threat to its regional dominance on the same lines as that of Warsaw Pact. The US being the prime proprietor of NATO and the strategic setting of the organization is always US centric. So, it is necessary for US to make a robust policy towards Russian advancement and expansionist behavior. There are several pros and cons for US while making such a policy. I will discuss those influential details later. The importance of the area in US’s eyes has increased due to the recent troubles in Ukraine which confirm the level of influence and ambition that Russia has over this part of the world.
Assumptions
Assumptions of another Cold War have been brewing for many years now. However, the present conflicts between the two countries do not involve the race for nuclear arms or competition of ideologies as Russia has shed most of its communist based thinking both at government and social level. Both countries are unlikely to involve in any similar scenario in the near future due to complete dominance of US military in the oceans and lack of moral support for Russia in many quarters of the modern world. But it won’t stop Russia from making military alliances and forcing US to forgo its interests in these areas. So, a full scale US involvement in the area cannot be ruled out and the other regional powers of the area like Germany and France are on the same page as US in this regard.
Before Ukraine, in 2009, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton gave Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov a button symbolizing clean slate. The button, however, held a mistranslated word that meant “overload” instead of “reset,” which was the intension of the endeavor.
But in reality, the US- Russian relations have been edgy over the last years. Prominent reasons are: Russia provided asylum to Edward Snowden and Russian involvement in Ukraine’s political crisis.
Identification and Analysis of US Interests
The sanctions that America has imposed on Russia exhibited commitment to its NATO allies and its support for the democracy and other objectives in the region. It strengthened the defenses of NATO countries in the region, lifting limitations on energy exports to lessen Europe’s reliance on Russian gas but the Russians at the moment seem unfazed by these steps by the US government and are flooding the region with arms and ammunition. The US interests in this area are being severely threatened by the all out civil war in Eastern Ukraine.
Other US interests in the area include supremacy of the NATO and its military might, protection of the territories and linked economies of the EU axis and political stability that will allow the US to focus on more pressing matters in the East like dealing with Chine regarding territorial disputes with US allies like South Korea, Japan and Chinese Taipei.
Although disagreements between Russia and US have seen no resolutions, the absence of talks between these countries is more threatening. In fact, US Republicans are proposing for the “Russian Aggression Prevention Act of 2014” that intends to cut off the ailing relationship between the two nations and consequently increase the tension between Russia and US. Stopping talks, no matter how conflicting they are, will worsen the problem, enhance the spread of human misery, and put the world back to the brink of war. It also damages the US’ intention to attain over-all peace.
Threats and Opportunities in Pursuit of US’s interests
There are many threats and opportunities that US needs to analyze before formulating a policy for this region. In spite of the torrid past, there are many positive points like:
- Strong public liking for democracy.
- The people are in awe of the European Union and many would like to join it to enjoy the trade and traveling benefits that come along with it.
- Poor economic conditions that can be overcome with EU help.
- Public anger against Russian meddling
- Military might of NATO
- Intervention history of US
But there are many threats awaiting further American involvement. Some of them are:
- Cultural, linguistic and ethnic barriers.
- Lack of ground support and military presence in the region.
- Reluctance to indulge in these kinds of activities.
- Russian heads start in the conflict as Russia acted first and has secured most of its interests in the East Ukraine and Crimea.
- Lack of experience in the region.
- Continued reluctance of EU states to unite against a common threat.
- Strong Russian economy based on natural resources.
- Dependence of US allies on these resources.
Now that we know the pros and cons of US actions in the area, we come to know that a strong influence and impending intervention needs careful planning and execution.
Uncertainties
There are some uncertainties that the US might like to ponder about before eventual action. Some of the uncertainties are:
- The energy crisis of Europe and how much can US manage to support in the event of a Russian stoppage of gas.
- Extent of Russian interests are still debated upon as we are unsure of what to expect from the former world power
- The extent of the public support towards a possible US intervention.
US Allies, Their Interests and Goals
There are four major US allies in this area that are directly involved with the struggle against Russia; UK, France, Germany and Western parts of Ukraine. All of these countries have their own interest in this development. Western Ukraine wants to join EU and build strong ties with the rest of Europe and not just with Russia. It also wants to expel Russian boots from it soil which the other powers are only too happy to help with. Germany and France want to maintain their regional dominance of the region in terms of trade and diplomatic influence. They are highly suspicious of Russian designs in the area and are compelling US to take a stronger stance in the area to help ward off Russia. UK is also thinking along the same lines but with rather lesser enthusiasm than others because of lesser proximity to the conflict.
US Opponents, Their Interests and Goals
There are various anti-US elements in the area. This list is predominantly Russian, but there are other forces involved too like the remnants of the Soviet Union, who are aiming to restore the old glory of the mighty coalition, Ethnic minorities are also a source of concern for US, as they believe their demands for a separate country would take a backstage if US involves further. Then there are the Russian sympathizers in the area who heavily populate the Eastern areas of Ukraine including the industrial city of Donetsk. They want closer ties with Russia as have been for the large part of recent history.
Potential Ethical Issues
- Sanctions will hurt common people more than Russian government as it hasn’t got a substantial affect.
- Constant US meddling in other countries affairs has forced international community to see US a negative force when it comes in intervention.
- US will have to play very smart this time around to avoid all this.
Identification of comparative advantage of US vis-à-vis Russia
America’s strengths: America is the most progressive country in the world in terms of Information Technology. The US dollar is still the most used reserve currency. Central banks of different countries use dollar reserves in buying oil and other major commodities.
America’s vulnerabilities: America is now 75% dependent on foreign imported oil primarily from Iran, which is an ally of Russia. Any aggravated conflicts can result in Iran stopping oil supply to the US.
Russia’s strength: Russia has strong military and economic resources. In fact, the sanctions have not affected their economy.
Russia’s vulnerabilities: Russia has no defensible borders and has no buffer from other super powers.
Identification of feasible and sustainable capabilities
There are four capabilities the US must be able to exercise in this area; Diplomatic, Information, Military and Economic.
US must continue diplomatic talks with Russia. Show support for Ukraine and show America’s stand on the conflict not just to the world but to the Ukrainian people that are in the middle of a conflict. Do not let politics stop the flow of aid to the Ukrainian people.
Stop name-calling and ego-centric attacks. Focus instead on diplomatic solutions, no matter how begrudging they can get.
Commit support to European nations and follow through this alliance at all times. For instance, commit to a fast and strong ballistic missile defense in Central and Eastern Europe because NATO’s defense system is a significant part of the alliance’s defense. This would open opportunities for joint military training and prove that US efforts to transatlantic security are intact.
Demonstrate the commitment to NATO by reassuring members in Central and Eastern Europe it can control conflicts.
Show support to European countries encouraging them to have a united stand on issues that affect their continent. One of the presumptions of EU nations is that US only show interest in EU countries during times of conflict.
Guarantee that security assistance will endure with NATO partners after Afghanistan withdrawal because NATO allies’ main concern is that transatlantic military assistance will diminish after the Afghanistan mission without the promise of new military cooperation.
Re-establish America’s obligation to NATO’s Article 5 and that transatlantic security is a high priority for present day America. While peace talks continue, it should be made apparent to Russia that any armed violence toward a NATO member cannot be tolerated.
National Security Risk Assessment
Bibliography
Fitzpatrick, Meagan. Russia-U.S. relations are chilly, but is this another Cold War? CBC, July 31, 2014 http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-u-s-relations-are-chilly-but-is-this-another-cold-war-1.2723056
Lewis, Paul. Putin insists Russia wants to repair US relations but ill will for Obama is clear. The Guardian, April 17, 2014. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/putin-russia-relations-obama-us-ukraine
