Decision-making process is very important in every business. There are such decision-making criteria as: risk, certainty and information. Before making any decision the manager should check it by these criteria. At first he should check whether he knows all the information about it, maybe he had missed something. Then he should take the risk of the decision and be certain of it. It is not easy to make a decision but if the person acknowledges the risks, he will succeed. Every business is associated with the risk and it is easy to check if the person is ready to become a leader – he should try to make a decision bound with a great risk. If he does not afraid, he would become a great director. Sometimes it is difficult to risk and people become unconscious of themselves, make some assumptions and make mistakes.
It is not good to make assumptions because they show uncertainty and doubts. When people assume it means that they do not know all the information and may be mistaken. My friend assumed when he went on his first job. He was trying to make decisions but assumed every time. One day he had to take a risk and make a decision about the new project. He assumed that it was not important and postponed it for the next day. His boss was so angry that he had lost his job. Now he rechecks everything many times and is more confident in all his decisions.
I have seen the wrong assumption one more time. A friend of mine was working in the restaurant and he ordered the cakes every day. One day, before the New Year he thought that there would be many people in the restaurant and ordered many cakes. When New Year came, there were many visitors but no one bought a cake. So, he had to buy all the cakes, because they spoilt. Now, he is more attentive and not so risky.
Every time the person makes an assumption, he should acknowledge the risk. He should understand that he can win or lose. He must check everything and try to know all the information about his company.
It is very important to make proper assumptions. To test if the assumption is credible, the person should check the information about it. There is an automobile manufacturer's assumption that the demand for SUVs would continue because gas prices would continue to rise. We can test it while checking the prices for gas, their variation and the demand for SUVs for the last decade in the specific region or state (CNN, 2016). If the SUVs are popular without the variation for gas, it is great and we can show that and verify with the evidence. If the prices for gas will grow but the SUVs are not popular now, we should not confirm this assumption.
There is the assumption that there is a need for an airline that provides no added amenities. To prove or disprove this assumption we should check the airline companies and their additional amenities. Before we make any decision we must know what is popular and should be in any airline company. Having adopted the information, we can make an assumption that there is no need in such companies. Airlines must provide comfort for their clients. There should be some rest zone, hotel rooms, taxis, WC, shops, cafes, comfortable chairs etc. The price and popularity also depend on comfort. People who use the airlines want to relax while they fly. Airlines want to match the airfares of competitors (Sorensen, 2008).
The most important thing about the assumptions is to check the information, because it can cost a job, but the person should also not to be afraid to risk, because it can bring a success.
References
CNN (2016). Why gas prices vary from state to state. Retrieved from : http://edition.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayoflife/07/18/aa.best.worst.gas.prices/
Langer, E. & Miller, N. (2008). Automobile Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Consumer Demand for Fuel Economy. Retrieved from : http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/wolfram/innovsem/papersf08/langer-miller-gasprice.pdf
Sorensen, J. (2008). Testing Customer Patience – Airline Executives Predict More Fees. Retrieved from : http://www.ideaworkscompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Analysis_AlaCarte_Trends2008.pdf
