Human population has experienced explosive growth over the recent decades. Population dynamics is a multifaceted aspect that encompasses not only population size, growth and density, but also the peculiarities of urbanization and migration taking into account such variables as age and sex (de Sherbinin et al., 2007). Lam, (2011) points out that demographic change is closely related to the three aspects, namely urbanization, fertility decline, and investment in children. “The growth of the world population goes hand in hand with global urbanisation: while around the year 1950 less than 30% of people lived in the cities, this proportion has increased to more than 50%” (Van Bavel, 2013).
In his articles, Ronald Lee (2011) nicely outlines the historic features of the human population growth: “The growth rate of global population increased slowly from 1700 to 1950, then accelerated rapidly until the mid-1960s, peaking at just over 2 percent per year before descending to 1.1% per year in 2010. Between 1800 and 2011, population size increased seven fold, coinciding with an economic expansion.”
For most of human history, population growth has been barely noticeable. However, starting from the 19th century this process became a matter of concern, particularly in the first half of 20th century when the population growth sharply accelerated. The population explosion attracted immediate attention and this issue started to be viewed in light of the globalization process. It has been estimated that the world's population increases by around 90 million people per year. However, it is worth noting that the population density in different areas varies widely. Van Bavel (2013) discuss the differences in growth of human population between the world regions. This is evident within any country, as the majority of the population tends to be concentrated in urban areas. Though, the main growth of the world's population occurs in developing countries. The growth of urban centers have been accompanied by the increase in material consumption, declining living standards and pollution. Population growth is proportional to the increase in consumption, thus pollution occurs. It is particularly noteworthy that the surplus population is concentrated in cities, therefore the increased outflow of population from rural to urban areas takes place. As the result of the growing volume of domestic waste, pollution is rampant in urban areas.
In most developing countries, rapid population growth makes it difficult to increase the level of well-being, due to a range of complex socio-economic problems. Therefore, a number of Asian and African countries are implementing birth control and family planning programs. Interestingly, the mid 70ies there were first signs of a decline in population growth rates in major countries like India and China. This trend was possible largely thanks to the growth of employment of women in production, health achievements, increase in the proportion of the urban population, the weakening of the influence of religion and traditions, the implementation of economic measures to encourage refusal of childbirth and other factors (Kremer, 1993). There was a sharp drop in the birth rate and this prevailing trend resulted in a slight reduction (Bongaarts, 2009). Sound demographic policies were designed to mitigate the negative consequences of the demographic gap. However, social, economic and cultural factors has not managed to lead to a significant reduction in the rate of population growth in Asia and Africa before 2000.
Sustainable human development is extremely important from a historical and social point of view. In the 19th century Europe witnessed demographic preconditions for rapid economic growth together with strong waves of emigration that led to the colonization. However, these conditions were not able to sufficiently stabilize the global development process and prevent the crisis that led to world wars. At the present time, the demographic transition in developing countries is two times faster than in Europe. Comparing the dynamics of population growth in Europe and Asia, it is crucial to point out that Europe is less likely to reach the number of population of Asia-Pacific region. Taking into account the speed of population growth, it is vital to realize how this issue can threaten global security.
Being the most populous country in the world, China with its more than a billion population has demonstrated the indicators of population growth below the world average. The current trend aimed at reducing the world population growth should be focused mainly on the developed countries, where population has a tendency to exceed the estimates. Some argue that it is increasingly difficult to provide more or less stable living conditions for the current population. In this regard, the issue of food shortages along with depletion of mineral resources should be mentioned. Apart from that, rapid population growth provokes the aggravation of a range of other environmental and social issues. These include the emergence and spread of epidemics of infectious diseases, ethnic and religious conflicts that arise as the result of increased competition for the territory its resources.
Serious concerns supported by calculations of experts suggest that the biosphere of the Earth will not be able to sustain such a gigantic demographic burden. The severity of the global population problem is further exacerbated by the modern lifestyle. In this regard, it is cruucial to highlight that de Sherbinin et al. (2007) explored the specificities of population-environment relationships and identified a bunch of the negative consequences of the growth of the world population. Knorr et al. (2014) claim that population density has a tendency to increase fire frequency. Climate change, land degradation, land-cover change as well as negative impact on water resources are of particular importance. Even though the demographic issue is seemingly complicated, still there is a range of ways for addressing it. However, de Sherbinin et al. (2007) is adamant that there is a tendency to oversimplify a complex reality of unbridled continued growth of population. Having a look at the exponential increase in the growth rates, it is obvious that the trend will not stop at the current 7 billion (Van Bavel, 2013).
Source: United States Census Bureau (2015). International Data Base World Population: 1950-2050. Retrieved May 04, 2016 from https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/worldpopgraph.php
Historical pattern of human population growth can be more fully understood and represented if it is explored within the concept of globalization. From the economic and technological perspective, globalization is associated with the formation of a global system of production and trade. Political globalization is related to the spread of Western liberal and democratic values. However, the cultural sphere of globalization entails two rather contradictory aspects. On the one hand, it opens up wider access to the values of national cultures, thereby contributing to their mutual enrichment. On the other hand, globalization promotes the unification of diverse cultural and spiritual world. Globalization has opened up new horizons for the development of mankind, and yet it has aggravated some world threats. Thus, the threat of international terrorism along with global environmental destruction are those scary aspects connected with the massive size of population.
Human-environment interaction is fraught with health related and psychological issues as well. Overcrowding provokes hormonal disorders in humans and increases the likelihood of conflicts and aggression both within the family and in the workplace. When it comes to the socio-psychological perspective, the loss of the social importance of an individual and as the result the value of life coupled with social indifference and careerism trigger self-destruction.
Nonetheless, the growing population has a detrimental influence on the natural resources, thereby triggering pollution, deforestation and climate change. The shift in favor of the urban population growth is accompanied by the decrease in life expectancy of men compared to women. Besides, the change in the ratio of age groups is likely to take place. Basic living standards are likely to fall, largely due to budget deficit, rising land prices and corresponding boost in prices of housing.
Environmentalists estimated that the Earth has the demographic capacity of 1.5 billion people. Therefore, it is apparent that our planet appears to be significantly overpopulated. What makes it even worse is the fear that the population growth is prone to continue, as food resources in spite of regionally existing hunger and malnutrition are still sufficient to sustain around 15 billion human beings.
It should be noted that the population growth is affected by external factors, such as environment and resources. In general, the mankind has sufficient resources. In developed countries, around 4% percent of the population can feed the whole country. Thus, nowadays there are sufficient reserves in the world to feed 20-25 billion. The problem is that these resources are not equally distributed. Argentina, for example, has a territory of only 30% smaller than India, however India is known as a poor country which has a population 30 times larger. Thus, population growth limit is not to be found in the global shortage of resources, but within the realm of human development. Primarily due to the exchange of information, the development of so-called third world countries can be rather fast.
A seven-fold excess of the population in accordance with the capacity of the Earth is fraught with the environmental consequences. The high population mobility contributes to the spread of dangerous diseases. Many experts are adamant that the higher the number and density of population, the worse the general health condition is. Nevertheless, there should be room for optimism. No matter how threatening the issue of human population growth seems, there are viable ways out or at least a number of preventative measures that should be encouraged.
References
Bongaarts, J. (2009). Human population growth and the demographic transition. Philosophical Transactions B, 364(1532), 2985-2990.
de Sherbinin, A., Carr, D., Cassels, S., & Jiang, L. (2007). Population and environment. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 32, 345-373.
Kremer, M. (1993). Population growth and technological change: One million B.C. to 1990. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 681-716.
Knorr, W., Kaminski, T., Arneth, A., & Weber, U. (2014). Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale. Biogeosciences, 11, 1085-1102.
Lam, D. (2011). How the world survived the population bomb: Lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history. Demography, 48(4), 1231-1262.
Lee, R. (2011). The outlook for population growth. Science, 333(6042), 569-573.
Van Bavel, J. (2013). The world population explosion: Causes, backgrounds and projections for the future. Facts, views & visions in ObGyn, 5(4), 281-291.
