Is Latino Political Influence in the United States Matching Population Growth?
While it is clear that the rising Latino population in the United States is resulting in greater political representation and influence, the extent of this influence and whether it matches the growth of this demographic is not quite so clear. Certainly, because of a high birth rate and high levels of immigration, one would think that Latinos are likely to become more powerful in the political sphere in the years to come. This paper will examine the reality of the changing political landscape in the United States, with a particular focus on the effect that Latinos are having on it. It will begin by investigating the increasing voice that Latinos have with their vote, and consider how this occurred given that only a few decades ago Latinos were largely marginalized politically and their populations were primarily concentrated in the Southwest.
Traditionally, Latino voting rates and even registration rates are considerably lower than might be expected from their overall percentage of the population, although there have been sizable gains when it comes to Latino participation in the election process. This paper will also investigate the extent to which the rising Latino representation in the United States political culture has been influenced by greater Latino participation, institutional changes in the US, representational redistricting, and the incorporation of Latinos and their culture into the broader US culture (i.e "the melting pot").
In recent years, news media outlets and their pundits have been a great deal of attention to the growing number of Latinos in the United States. From the 1970s onward, the United States Latino population has risen significantly, and is projected to continue to grow rapidly in the future. As of the last census (2010), the United States had roughly 50 million Latinos. This amounted to more than 16% of the overall population in the United States (Passel et al. 1). During the decade from 2000 to 2010 (according to the census) the Latino population in the United States grew by more than 46%. This is over four times the overall population growth rate in the United States.
It is projected that by the year 2050, Latinos will comprise roughly 25% of the US population. By that point, there will be more than 100 million Latinos here. This is an astonishing growth rate given the fact that as recently as the 1970s Latinos comprised less than 5% of the overall population in the United States. Furthermore, these statistics demonstrate that, since the year 2000, Latinos have accounted for roughly 50% of the US population growth, making them the fastest growing minority in the United States. The second fastest growing is Asian, but they lag far behind Latinos. Although the next census results will not be out until 2020, in 2016 all indicators are that this trend will continue.
As might seem obvious, this population increase among Latinos in the United States is not merely a result of high birth rate. It is also a direct consequence of several influxes of immigration. For instance, in the 90s approximately 56% of Latino population growth the United States was a direct consequence of immigration. While a considerable portion of this immigration was a result of migration from Mexico, an increasing percentage of these migrants came from countries in Central America. However (and contrary to popular misconceptions promoted by the media), the 2000s saw a significant reduction in both legal and illegal immigration into the United States from Latino countries. Since that time, roughly 60% of this growth has been a consequence of births in the United States, rather than immigration from other countries (Fry 18). The result of this has been an ever growing US-born Latino population that is beginning (and will continue into the future) to influence the US political landscape.
Certainly, as compared with non-Hispanic whites, US Latinos have a much higher birth rate. One obvious side effect of this is that Latinos on average are much younger than the overall US population. While the median age for non-Hispanic whites is 41, the Latino median age is 27. This youth phenomenon among Latinos is primarily focused on those who were native-born. While in 2010 more than 25% of native born Latinos were 18 years old or younger, for foreign-born Latinos those 18 years old or younger represented only 5% of their population (Pew Hispanic Center Table 8). For non-Hispanic whites, just over 11% were 18 or under. This increasing population of young native-born Latinos represent the future of Latino political clout in the coming decades.
However, it is a mistake to think of Latinos as a monolithic and homogeneous demographic group. Instead, they are extremely diverse with significant differences, despite the many things they have in common. This pan-ethnic group is made up of a number of recent immigrants, some of whom have a limited understanding of English. However, it is also made up of many second or third generation Latinos, many of whom have a limited understanding of Spanish. Latinos (both immigrants and native-born) may also have different national backgrounds. While the majority may come from Mexico, many come from other Spanish-speaking countries as well. These differences in their countries of origin (or the countries origins of their parents or grandparents) have had a significant impact on the degree of political incorporation and cultural assimilation that these Latino groups have experienced.
Generally speaking, both Latino immigration and growth within the United States has been concentrated in certain geographic regions and states within the United States. Statistics from census data indicates that the largest concentration of Latinos in the United States continues to be found in the southwestern states and is comprised primarily of those with a Mexican background. Of course, California has the highest number of Latinos of any state. Interestingly, Los Angeles County by itself has over 4.6 million Latinos (Passel et al. 3). In total, Latinos comprise roughly 37% of the population in Texas and California. Both New York and Florida also have sizable Latino populations (although these entire states have fewer Latinos then Los Angeles County by itself). Many of the Latinos in New York and Florida have Puerto Rican and Cuban origins, rather than the Mexican origins of many people living in the Southwest. Arizona has roughly 2 million Latinos. Illinois also has a very high Latino population, and like the other states mentioned above is considered one of the states that Latinos traditionally migrate to.
More recently, we've begun seeing a rise in Latino migration to other nontraditional states, especially in the southeast in fact, statistics show that in the 10 years prior to the 2010 census some of the highest population growth rates for Latinos occurred outside of the Southwest. For example, between 2000 and 2010, both Arkansas and South Carolina more than doubled their Latino population. Both Georgia and North Carolina also now have sizable Latino populations, while Kentucky and Missouri have also seen significant growth in the number of Latinos living in those states. Of course, while these southeastern states have seen significant increases in their Latino populations, the numbers are still small compared to states Latinos are more traditionally drawn to.
Many have described the Latino population increases in Southern states as the beginnings of a new “Latino South,” with all the political overtones that might entail (Smith 4). The first indications of this Latino population increase in the South was seen in the early 1990s, and this expansion has continued over the last two decades. It should be noted that 57% of the Latinos migrating to the southern states were foreign-born. Most were young, male and uneducated (Kochhar et al. 12). For the most part, these migrants were coming to the states looking for new job opportunities. Because of their youth, they generally had fewer things to tie them down and prevent them from moving to an area that needed their labor.
One problem arising from this new dynamic was that few of these southern states had any experience or infrastructure designed to deal with the needs of this sudden influx of Latinos (Smith 7). Politicians and experts have only just begun to consider the implications of this new reality. However, these significant demographic changes have resulted in serious concerns regarding the resources being provided for social services, housing and education.
Latino Political Representation
Latino political representation is hardly uniform throughout the country. Just as Latino populations vary from one region to the next-door one state to the next, their political power and influence also varies. Certainly, those areas in which Latinos are highly concentrated are ones in which they have greater influence. This would include states like New York, California, Illinois, Florida and Texas that have large Latino populations. Particularly in local political races in places like South Texas in Southern California, Latinos have significantly influenced the results. In fact, the majority of Latino congressional representatives are from either Texas or California.
In addition to this, many of the states in which Latinos are present in high concentrations are also states that have a large representation in the United States electoral college. This means that Latinos receive a great deal of attention from presidential candidates every four years. This is more true in swing states than in states like Texas (that inevitably vote Republican) or states like California (that inevitably vote Democrat). But in states like New Mexico and Florida that have both large Latino populations and that can go either way in a national election, presidential campaigns regularly visit them in both primaries and in the general election to try to win the Latino vote.
When it comes to actual voter participation among Latinos, both registration and voting numbers are much lower than might be expected based on their population. However, in recent years there have been (particularly in certain areas) significant increases in Latino participation in the political process. In fact, while Latino voter participation in the United States still lags well behind that of the participation rates for non-Hispanic whites and African-Americans, it has drawn roughly level with the voting participation levels of Asian Americans.
While from a socioeconomic perspective, African-Americans and Latinos might be considered somewhat similar, from a political perspective they are widely divergent in their participation. African-Americans view the political process as one of the primary means by which they can exert control over their own future. It may be that Latinos still harbor a "outsider" mentality that prevents them from viewing the political process in this way.
Yet despite these lagging voting numbers, the Latino voter has still become an important part presidential general election process. Between 2000 and 2008, presidential election saw Latino voting rates rise steadily by roughly 4.8%. This meant that almost 4 million Latinos joined the voting pool.
Over the same period registration of Latinos rose by 54%, while Latino turnout for elections rose by 64%. These increases can be seen as a consequence of the gradual increase in the size of the voting age population, a population that has been more likely to incorporate into general society and participate in the political process. According to the National Association of Latino Elected Officials, more than 12 million Latinos voted in the presidential election of 2012, which was a 28% increase over 2008 selection. Nevertheless, even with these significant increases in Latino participation in the voting process, there is still a huge gap between the voting participation in this demographic group and other groups in the country.
These very low levels of Latino participation in the electoral process have been closely consider in the literature on the subject (Barreto & Woods 149; Arvizu & Garcia 109). These low participation levels among Latinos have been attributed to a wide range of possible causes, including lack of group mobilization, lower socioeconomic status, difficult to define demographic variables, and the general context of the election in question (Barreto & Woods, 167; DeSipio 114).
Generally speaking, younger, less educated and more citizens (of any demographic) are much less likely to engage in the political process by voting. These categories are ones to which Latinos frequently belong (DeSipio & de la Garza 399). In addition, because in the past Latinos have been marginalized by the American political process and disenfranchised in general, greater efforts toward political mobilization and socialization of Latinos would seem to be necessary.
Another factor limiting the participation of Latinos in the American political process is that a very high percentage of them are here illegally. Of the roughly 1/3 of Latinos living in the United States who are foreign-born, only about 30% of them have US citizenship (Passel & Cohn, 4). This means that a very high percentage of the Latino population in the United States is not eligible to vote at all. Obviously, if one includes those who work in eligible to vote in the percentages of Latinos who vote in the general elections, those percentages dropped even further. Obviously, there is significant potential for increasing the political participation of Latinos give broader and more easily accessible pathways to citizenship can be provided.
This is a subject for considerable contention in the United States. There are many people who feel that illegals should not be here at all and that granting them easier access to citizenship is nothing less than rewarding them for illegally entering the United States. Nevertheless, a number of activist groups (including bipartisan ones) have attempted to lay out a roadmap for increasing citizenship rates among illegal immigrants. Furthermore, in the 90s there was a sizable effort to increase naturalization rates among Latinos. This was largely successful, with almost 1/2 million becoming naturalized between 1995 and 2001 (DeSipio & de la Garza 409).
However, even those foreign-born Latinos who become naturalized and obtain at least the legal possibility of voting, still face a number of obstacles that make it more difficult for them than the average person to participate in the political process. Like other Latinos and other poor people, foreign-born Latinos who obtain their citizenship are still less likely to participate in elections because of their socioeconomic situation.
There is also the fact that native born whites, Latinos, African-Americans and others who have lived in the United States for generations have had the benefit of learning about the political process from their parents and their neighbors. Foreign-born Latinos have not had the benefit of this political socialization. Because they do not have a clear understanding of the political process in the United States, they are less likely to participate without being mobilized and guided by those who have more experience.
In addition to this, the fact that the Latino population is younger on average has also reduced the chance that they will participate in US politics. Among non-Hispanic whites, 79% are 18 or above. Only 65% of Latinos are 18 or above. However, as these young people grow older, they can form the core of a massive Latino voting group. As suggested previously, the number of Latinos arriving at voting age has in each election between 2000 and 2010 increased substantially. In 2010 alone, roughly 1.3 million Latinos became old enough to vote.
Thus, the rising citizenship rates for foreign-born Latinos, combined with the increased number of Latino voters resulting from teenagers turning 18, demonstrates that there is enormous future potential for greater Latino participation in the electoral process.
In conclusion, it is no small thing to note that Latinos in the United States now number over 50 million. Given that Latinos represent over 16% of the United States population and that this percentage is only likely to increase in the future, Latinos and Latino culture are going to influence the United States in countless ways. One area in which it has traditionally have less influence is in the political arena. To an extent, this will most likely continue into the future. At the same time, statistics and trends seem to indicate that there will be a slow change as Latinos are more formally incorporated into the American political process. Given that Latinos are now the largest minority group in the United States, and are significant factors in deciding key battleground states like New Mexico and Florida, we can hardly continue to ignore their role in the political sphere.
While the process may be gradual and sometimes painful, Latino political representation at all levels of government in the United States will almost certainly have to rise in the future. The issue is whether Latinos will achieve the same levels of representation that other groups have. Certainly, there is already a backlash and resentment against growing Latino influence over politics in certain areas of the country. Such a backlash has served to delay the integration of Latinos into the democratic process. It is to be hoped that those behind this backlash can themselves be repudiated and marginalized so that Latinos can enrich American society and politics in the same way that other ethnic groups like Italians and the Irish have done for generations.
Works Cited
Arvizu, John R., and F. Chris Garcia. "Latino Voting Participation: Explaining And Differentiating Latino Voting Turnout." Hispanic Journal Of Behavioral Sciences 18.2 (1996): 104-128.
Barreto, M., & Woods, N. “The Anti-Latino Political Context and its Impact on GOP Detachment and Increasing Latino Voter Turnout in Los Angeles County.” In Diversity in Democracy: Minority Representation in the United States. Eds. G. Segura & S. Bowler. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 2005. (pp. 148-170).
DeSipio, Louis. Counting on the Latino Vote: Latinos As a New Electorate. Charlottesville: University Press of Virginia, 1996.
DeSipio, L., & de la Garza, R. O. “Forever Seen as New: Latino Participation in American Elections.” In Latinos: Remaking America. Eds. M. Suarez-Orozco & M. Paez. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2002. (pp. 398-409).
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Kochhar, R., Suro, R., & Tafoya, S. "The New Latino South: the Context and Consequences of Rapid Population Growth." Pew Hispanic Center. 2005. Retrieved from http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/uploadedfiles/wwwpewtrustsorg/
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Passel, J. S., Cohn, D. V., & Lopez, M. H.. "Hispanics Account for More Than Half of Nation's Growth in past Decade." Pew Hispanic Center. 2011. Retrieved from http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/reports/140.pdf
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Smith, B. E. "The New Latino South: an Introduction." A Joint Project of the Center for Research on Women at The University of Memphis, the Highlander Research and Education Center, and the Southern Regional Council. 2001. Retrieved from http://www.intergroupresources.com/rc/The%20New%20Latino%20
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