Inferences and Assumptions
Two important aspects of reasoning are the usage of inferences and assumptions. An inference is a conclusion that is drawn (or made) from a combination of many factors. Many inferences -- or conclusions -- are drawn from underlying assumptions. Underlying assumptions are facts that are taken for granted, or presuppositions. If an underlying assumption is invalid or incorrect, then, by necessity, the inferences one makes are skewed, and do not reflect the reality of the matter at hand. Many people -- including myself -- make inferences based on underlying assumptions. It is a normal, healthy aspect of everyday decision-making. However, when one's underlying assumptions -- what is taken for granted -- are incorrect, the inferences that follow will also be incorrect (criticalthinking.org, internet). For example, during my lifetime, I have made four memorable inferences based on underlying assumptions. In retrospect, half of these inferences proved to correct, while the other half were incorrect.
When I was about six years old, I scalded myself on a cigarette lighter -- the coiled kind found in automobiles. I distinctly remember this incident as if it were yesterday. I touched the lighter, motivated by an inference I had drawn. At times, I had seen the coil burn bright orange. During those times, I knew it was hot. I inferred that, when the coil was its normal color, iot would be cool. Thus, I touched it, and received an unpleasant surprise. This reasoning was based on the faulty underlying assumption I had made about the coil's color (or non-color) being a necessary condition of its production of heat. It was a small incident, but I remember it well, nonetheless.
During my lifetime, I have also inferred that college-educated people make a lot of money. This inference was based on the underlying assumption -- largely-instilled in me by my family and society -- that universities and colleges prepare people for the world of work more so than other avenues of endeavor. I have met people who work as waiters who have doctorates, and I have met homeless people who have undergraduate degrees. My pre-supposition led to an incorrect inference in this case. My underlying assumption proved to be grossly incorrect, as I had taken for granted the stability of the economy as well. I learned that my inference needed to be corrected in order to reflect my new assumption.
Lastly, one of my inferences that was correct was inferring that a certain person liked me based on gifts I received from the person. My inference was based on the underlying assumption that gift-giving between men and women indicates a liking of the person who receives the gifts by the person giving them. In this case, my inference was correct as a later interaction -- almost a confrontation -- with the person confirmed that they did, indeed, like me in an amorous, non-platonic way.
Every day, people such as myself make inferences based on underlying assumptions that may or may not prove to be correct. If people would take the time to verify the correctness or accuracy of their assumptions, it stands to reason that more and more people would make the correct inferences in any given situation. I have learned a great deal from my own life experience on how to improve my inferential reasoning, as well as the instruction I have received in various learning curricula.
References
Analyze a problem using the elements and standards. (2013). Retrieved on 22 Dec 2014 from http://www.criticalthinking.org/pages/elements-and-standards-learning-tool/783
