Leaders have tuned to science and especially that of opinion polling to compensate for the decline in the experience of public opinion from the followers. Politicians and public officials use opinion polls to decide on whether to run for office. In addition, the opinion polls direct the politicians on which policies to support. They also rely on the opinion polls to decide on how to vote for certain important legislations. The samples of the population that the pollsters and researchers select must represent the views of the whole population in an accurate and proportionate manner.
California’s gubernatorial politics are difficult to understand. In spite of the democrats having larger registration advantage in California since the 1930s, they have occupied the governor’s seat for only 28 of the last 84 years (Mehta). The recent most democratic governorship ended in less than one year after governor Gray Davis was recalled from office. Education activist and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger (republican) replaced Davis and led the state for a troubled two terms leaving the office with an approval rate of less than 30%.
In the 2014 polls, governor, Jerry Brown, 76 (a democrat) leads the polls ahead of his closest republican challenger Neel Kashkari, 41. Brown leads the race for California’s governorship seat by 56% with Neel Kashkari a distant second with 37%. Only 4% of the voters in California are undecided on the gubernatorial post. The poll was conducted on 1,537 registered voters between October 22 and Oct 29th (Mehta). The margin of error was 3.3 points in either direction meaning that the calculations could have favored or denied candidates their probable winning numbers by the said margin of error.
The race for the state’s secretary of state was tighter as compared to that of the gubernatorial position. The republican candidate Senator Alex Padilla holds a narrow lead over his republican challenger Pete Peterson with 45% and 41% ratings respectively. Only 9% of the respondents were undecided in the polls. Padilla is in pole position to win but he underperformed in the democratic partisanship of the state. The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research carried out the poll, which is the democratic half of a bipartisan team that carried out the polls. The poll used the same numbers and figures of respondents and error margins as the poll on the gubernatorial positions of the state. The USC Dornsife/ the Los Angeles Times conducted the poll.
The respondents answered questions on the projects that Brown and Kashkari are planning for California such as the railway project and taxation issues. The majority of the people trust that Brown can solve the state’s problematic issues such as poverty, drought, education and the economy. Brown enjoys the approval of six in every 10 voters for his job performance as a governor (Mehta). He is likely to receive the support of people from all ages, races, education levels, and incomes.
Concerning the national polls, the voters in California said that they would vote 34 percent as a statement against Mr. Obama. The only 20% of the respondents stated that they would support the president. 54% of the respondents stated that that would vote because of influence by the president. Among the republicans, 61% said that they would cast their ballots against the current administration (Whitney). 35% of the respondents who are affiliated to the Republican Party stated that the Obama presidency never influenced their decision to vote (Whitney). As such, the 2014 midterm elections looks more like a referendum against the Obama presidency.
The polls sampled random respondents. The pollster should conduct probability sampling where s/he begins with a list of the population to be surveyed. A computerized random selection process is used to pick the respondents for the survey. When a sample of respondents is selected in this manner, it produces a subset of the population. As such random sampling ensures that the manner in which the people to take part in a survey are selected is not related to the characteristics of the individuals with aspects such as their level of education (Bardes, 433). The pollsters should also prepare questions that are not vague or confusing to the respondents. The researchers should also offer the respondents a full set of options for a given survey. The provision of leading questions usually directs the respondents to give answers that befit the questions (Bardes, 436).
Conclusion
Politicians and voters use opinion polls to make critical decisions about leadership in the US and elsewhere. In the state of California, numerous opinion polls preceded the voting. An opinion poll by USC Dornsife/ the Los Angeles Times showed that in the 2014 polls, governor, Jerry Brown, 76 (a democrat) leads the polls ahead of his closest republican challenger Neel Kashkari, 41. Brown leads the race for California’s governorship seat by 56% with Neel Kashkari a distant second with 37%. The poll also showed that republican candidate Senator Alex Padilla holds a narrow lead over his republican challenger Pete Peterson with 45% and 41% ratings respectively in the race for the state’s secretary of state. On the national scene, the state recorded declining approval rates for Obama’s presidency with many people stating that their reason for taking part in the primaries was influenced by Obama’s presidency.
Works Cited
Mehta, Seema. "Poll Finds Support for Gov. Brown and His Ballot Measures." Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times, 2 Nov. 2014. Web. 12 Nov. 2014. <http://www.latimes.com/local/politics/la-me-pol-poll-election-20141102- story.html#page=1>.
Whitney, Mike. "US Elections: Obama Leads Democrats to Midterm Massacre.” Global Research. 7 Nov. 2014. Web. 12 Nov. 2014. <http://www.globalresearch.ca/the- republican-victory-grab-a-pitchfork-president-flim-flam-leads-democrats-to-midterm- massacre/5412554>.
Bardes, Barbara. Public Opinion Measuring the American Mind. Rowman & Littlefield Pub, 2012. Print.
