Introduction
Automotive industry plays a key role in the development and engineering in general and transport engineering in particular. Automotive industry world is capacious and very important sector of the world economy and international business, it's not only the cars, but also a variety of goods on car servicing, as well as, to a large extent, the market for the production and sale of spare parts. Car Market has a number of related markets and industries from the most closely adjacent (market parts and blocks of cars and the oil industry) to the less obvious (roads, production of accessories for cars, etc.).
An important feature of cars are their adaptive capacity in that regard, in particular, the integration of transport in a single process with other modes of transport: water (ferries, ships for horizontal loading and unloading of goods, etc.), rail (platform trailers) , aviation (heavy aircraft).
Relevance of the study of the global automotive market is obvious, since automobile has long been a kind of engine of the economy of industrialized countries and even to some extent - an indicator of the success of the economic situation. It is as if combines the two poles. At one - the production of passenger cars, the most massive, and therefore plays the role of "locomotive" in the economy of any developed country; on the other - the trucks are the means of production.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the global car market in recent years.
1. Overview of the global automotive market in recent years;
2. The analysis of the markets of major producers of passenger cars;
3. The study of the issues of supply and demand dynamics for cars in recent years;
4. The identification of the development prospects of the world production of passenger cars and light trucks in the foreseeable future.
Global Car Market Overview
At the beginning of the work I should characterize the global automotive market as a whole. In general, it should be noted that an important economic feature of the automotive industry - a relatively low rate of return. The existence of customs barriers, fierce price competition and quality make this market inaccessible to enter new market participants. World car market is currently represented by a limited number of firms and actually formed. Several years ago, 70% of the global car market controlled by a dozen companies, and today the leading players there are only six: American General Motors and Ford, the German Volkswagen, Japan's Toyota, the German-American DaimlerChrysler and French-Japanese Renault-Nissan.
It should be noted that even large second-tier companies such as PSA, Fiat, Hyundai, the South Korean or Japanese Honda and Mitsubishi, the share of each of which accounts for 3 to 5% of the world market, may soon be acquired by the first echelon. For example, for DaimlerChrysler, was looking for a partner for the production of small cars, the ideal would be an alliance with Peugeot or Fiat. Such transactions can lead to some redistribution of the market, but the basic structure of the automotive industry has already taken shape.
As already mentioned the automotive industry is one of the most dynamic and popular sectors of the world economy. The scale of the industry are characterized by the fact that the total cost of the final product of the global automotive industry is approximately $ 1.5 trillion, Including (billion dollars) In the US - 288 (2002) and more than 170 - spare parts and accessories, in Japan - 342 (2000, at including accessories, which accounted for 13.4% of industrial production) in Germany - 172 (2001). On the socio-economic importance of the automotive industry in modern society says that it directly employed: in the US - more than 1 million, in Germany - 775 thousand people. The number of people indirectly associated with this industry (and dependent) is many times higher than these figures.
Currently in the automotive industry, the process of changing the regional structure, the beginning of which was evident in the 80s. This process involves the redistribution share among the leading centers of capitalist production and the increase in the economically developing countries, which under the influence of the world's major automotive companies is intense development of automobile production.
Can be considered as the process of forming the best possible automated factories, which employ simplified human or automated, and in most of the assembly line operations are performed by robots. The only exceptions are obsolete factories of the Third World, as well as small-scale production and piece in which manual labor is a tradition and is very much appreciated.
For the modern automotive world is also characterized by a high degree of specialization. There are a number of major corporations, specializing in the production of concrete blocks and parts of vehicles (engines, transmissions, tires, mufflers, autos, etc.). This division of labor was caused by the struggle for maximum optimization of the use of available resources and maximizes technical and operational performance products.
At the beginning of the twenty-first century the global automotive industry is characterized by two trends: increased competition and the spread of the impact of globalization. Increased competition encourages car manufacturers to improve the quality of our products and improve technology to reduce production costs and actively enter the world market. Thus, competition increasingly transferred to an international level. The main driving forces and motives placing branches of automobile corporations abroad currently serve: the conquest of promising markets, the development of international specialization and co-production, the use of relatively cheap labor in foreign countries, a growing process of inter-firm mergers and acquisitions, reaching across national borders.
Furthermore, the automotive industry of the world - the most monopolized global industries. Total of 10 leading auto mobile companies of five countries account for about 80% of world production, which resulted in extremely tough competition in the world market. In addition, a typical trend of 90-ies of the last century was the fact that the activities of automobile companies are increasingly going beyond national borders.
Europe occupies a leading position in the global automotive industry. In general, the Western European region in 2003 produced 19.1 million. Car and took first place in the world, and North America (USA, Canada and Mexico) was in second place (15.8 million. Cars). In third place - the Asian region. Cumulative production of cars in Japan and South Korea amounted to about 12.3 million. Out of the three regions of the automotive industry stands out in South America (Brazil and Argentina produced about 1.7 million. Cars), Russia (1.1 million.) And China (2, 8 million.). Outside of these countries have relatively large automakers in Turkey (421 thousand., Cars), South Africa (430 thousand.), Thailand (768 thousand.), As well as automobile assembly plants in many other countries around the world.
It should also be noted that in the recent literature further strengthens the view "tripolar world" automotive industry.
Ford, DaimlerChrysler, General Motors - three group forming the Big Three. However, these manufacturers are controlled by other firms. Part firms bought completely, while others are partly independent.
The second-largest carmaker Ford - too American. The structure of this company TNK include Aston Martin, Jaguar, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo and Mazda. Here, too, is seen multinational composition. The total volume of the issue of concern around 4.6 million. Cars. The main part of the car brand Ford (more than 2 million.) And Mazda (almost 1 million.).
Closes to the three leaders is the group DaimlerChrysler (DC) with the annual output of 3.55 million cars. However, in the global table of leadership, he is the fifth line. This corporation was formed by the merger of the American Chrysler and the German Daimler-Benz, redeem it in 2001 and now under the leadership of DC to produce cars brands such as Mercedes (and belongs to the Mercedes Group Car Smart), Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge. Now, having at its disposal a leader in the classroom prestige cars like Mercedes can safely produce cars that were previously closed to Chrysler. This association has a positive effect on a technical and tactical side to the two companies.
At the same time trends in 2010-2012 show that these three transnational companies lose its former power in the global car market.
World Production of Cars by the Main Producing Firms for the Period 2010-2012
Analyzing the issues of supply and demand for cars in the world should focus on a region like Western Europe. Western Europe - is not just a car manufacturer, but a large-scale consumer. On the capacity market in the region by the following fact. According to Reuters, approximately every fourth person in Western Europe is planning to buy a new car soon, and most prefer Volkswagen and Peugeot. These are the results of research ACNielsen, published April 4, 2010 In a survey conducted on the Internet in October 2004, was attended by over 14,000 people from 28 countries in the Asia-Pacific, Europe and the United States. 24% of respondents in Western Europe announced plans to buy a new car in the next 12 months.
If we consider the five major European markets, the new car this year are going to buy 22% of Germans, 26% of Britons, 34% of Italians, 32% of French and 30% of Spaniards. The explanatory memorandum states that ACNielsen conducted a similar survey for the first time, so there is no comparative data. The most popular cars in Europe by body type are sedans and hatchbacks, followed by minibuses, in contrast to other regions, where preference is given to sports utility urban and all-wheel drive cars, the Europeans are more concerned about high fuel prices and environmental pollution problems.
Thus, it is obvious that the demand for vehicles is not only reduced, but also continues to rise, though at the same time it should be noted that in the automotive industry as a strong enough monopolized sector of the world economy, the supply continues to exceed demand.
Meanwhile, the supply of cheap, environmentally sound vehicles is not large enough, and the demand for these vehicles continues to grow, which can provide more intensive transition of cars manufacturers on high-tech environmentally friendly production.
The following table presents data on the world production of vehicles on major manufacturing firms in 2010.
Perspectives of Development of World Production of Passenger Cars and Light Trucks
German carmakers intend to release the first of more than 15 million vehicles in 2015 against the background of a gradual recovery of the car market in Western Europe. However, the main hope of German manufacturers is associated with China and America.
According to Deutsche Welle, in 2014 is expected to increase car production by German companies by about 2%. In 2015, the projected acceleration of growth to 4%. Nearly two-thirds of the cars that will be released in 2015 - about 9.6 million - will go conveyors outside Germany.
Such indicators promulgated Association of the German Automotive Industry (VDA) at the final annual press conference held on December 2 in Berlin. According to the President Matthias Wissmann VDA, the situation in the industry better than the mood that spoil the numerous "hot spots" on the planet.
According to Wissmann, 2014 turned out to be for the automotive market in Germany is quite successful. He expects that by the end of December in the country will be sold more than 3 million new cars, which is 2% more than in 2013, when managed to sell 2.95 million. The volume of production in the German car factories also increased by 2% to 5, 5 million units. Accordingly, the increase in the number of jobs in the industry: 23.4 thousand. - To about 784 thousand.
According to the forecast VDA, in 2015 the global car market will grow by about 2% - to 76.4 million units. At the same time the German car manufacturers will be able to on their domestic and foreign markets to increase the output by 4% - to a record 15.25 million vehicles, believed in the industry association.
"Prospects for 2015 we estimate without euphoria, but optimistic, as we expect demand growth, especially in the markets of America and Asia, specifically - in China," - said the head of the VDA. In the past year, sales of the world's largest car market, China, will grow by about 10% and will amount to 17.9 million units. At the same time the pre-crisis level of 16 million new cars back the US market. Sales of new cars in November were the best for that month since 2003, with particularly high demand SUVs and pickups.
Benefit from this trend especially American corporations, including jeeps manufacturer Chrysler, now owned by the Italian concern Fiat: compared to November last year, sales increased by 20%. However, for the German brand Mercedes Benz last month was the best in the history of Daimler work in the US market. In turn, the daughter of the concern Volkswagen - company Audi - by the end of November, has established a new record annual sales in the United States. Meanwhile dynamics in Western Europe looks quite modest. However, the market in which the German car manufacturers are selling every second car released in 2014 for the first time in 4 years is not decreased, but increased by 4%, said Wissmann. The following year, VDA expects an increase in new car sales by 2% - to 12.2 million units. The main reason for the low dynamics of the head of the German trade association called the poor economic condition of France and Italy.
A big disappointment for German carmakers began in 2014, the Russian automotive market. At year-end sales of German automakers in Russia could fall by 20-25%, and the entire Russian market for new cars will be likely to significantly less than 2.5 million units. Very matter were the German carmakers case and in another country of the BRIC - Brazil. It is particularly affected Germany's largest automaker - concern Volkswagen.
References
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