Introduction
Climate change is – according to many – already definitely with us, and is having and will have major effects on our environment. According to numerous articles including one by NASA entitled “Global Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet” (n.d.), the signs are already there in the form of melting glaciers, earlier spring breakup of river and lake ice, rising mean temperatures and sea levels and unusual weather patterns, etc.
What, if any, will be the global effect on human health? Will there be increased health risks attributable to climate change? In the following paragraphs, this paper summarizes, discusses and compares the opinions propounded by two papers on the subject.
The potential health impacts of climate variability and change for the United States: executive summary of the report of the health sector of the U.S. National Assessment.
This article by Patz et al. (Apr 2000), a team of “experts from academia, government, and the private sector”, reported on a study undertaken under the auspices of Congress, to look at the possible effects of climate change on our health, with regard to the following issues (p.367-368):
- The current status of health in the U.S. and the current stresses on it;
- Potential effects of climate change and / or variability on U.S. health and current or predicted health stresses;
- The U.S. capacity to make changes to the health system or to adapt in specific ways;
- What essential information is needed to fully appreciate the potential impacts of climate change on human health.
- Morbidity / mortality related to ambient temperature;
- Effects on health from extreme weather such as “storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and precipitation extremes”;
- Health effects from air pollution;
- Disease from water and/or food;
- Diseases from rodents or mosquitos, etc.
Essentially, their findings were that although they did – in the course of their research – develop various hypotheses, there was too high a degree of uncertainty to predict any definitive outcomes for any of the listed health outcome categories. They noted that there are many variables to consider, including the fact that health standards and facilities vary with different sectors of the U.S. population; for example the poor fare less well in that respect. They also noted that air pollution is a variable, dependent on weather conditions and locality. For instance, pollution is generally worse in the hotter weather and tends to be concentrated in heavily industrialized locations or close by busy traffic concentrations on the road networks.
However, they did comment on one potentially positive outcome: that with generally increased temperatures in the future, the phenomenon of deaths being caused due to cold weather is likely to be lessened (p.370). They also concluded that it is important to remain vigilant in the future, so that any health outcomes likely to have adverse effects are identified and appropriate measures taken to protect the population (p.374).
Climate Change: The Public Health Response
This 2007 article published in the American Journal of Public Health by Frumkin et al., reiterated what they claimed to be “scientific consensus” that climate change is a reality, causing increased temperatures, more variability of the climate, sea levels rising, etc, and that these phenomena are almost certainly to “have substantial impacts on human health.”
The Two Articles Compared
The first article reviewed (Patz et al., Apr 2000), adopted a quite conservative and cautious approach, basically concluding – after 18 months research – that there are too many uncertainties and factors that could affect conditions to make any firm predictions about the future health outcomes, even at one point injecting an optimistic note by suggesting that increased temperatures could mean less people dying in the future due to the effects of the winter cold.
In contrast, the article by Frumkin et al. (2007) appears to predict significant effects on various aspects of human health, demonstrated by expressing the need for full cooperation between every government and non-government agency, to implement appropriate and adaptive strategies, to deal with and respond to the likely wide scale effects that might result from climate change in the future.
Conclusions
It is the opinion of this writer that the effects of future changes to our climate on human health are too uncertain to reliably predict. It is significant that the two articles by “experts” offer such diverse views on the subject. Perhaps that is a reflection of the whole “Global Warming / Climate Change” debate which seems to rage ceaselessly around the world. There are “experts” arguing on both sides; many predicting severe outcomes like the end of the world and extinction of the human race, others dismissing the climate change as merely scientists manipulating data for their own ends. However, it is nevertheless a matter that should concern us all. We should certainly be monitoring climate change and its potential effects including health aspects, so that if adverse effects do manifest themselves in the future, we are prepared for whatever action is needed.
References:
Frumkin, H., Hess, J., Luber, G., Malilay, J., & McGeehin, M. (2008). Climate Change: The Public Health Response. American Journal of Public Health March 2008, Vol. 98, No. 3, pp. 435-445. Web. 18 May 2013.
Global Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet. (n.d.). NASA. Web. 18 May 2013.
Patz, J., A., McGeehin, M., A., Bernard, S., M., Ebi, K., L., Epstein, P., R., Grambsch, A., Gubler, D., J., Reither, P., Romieu, I., Rose, J., B., Samet, J., M., & Trtanj, J. (Apr 2000). The potential health impacts of climate variability and change for the United States: executive summary of the report of the health sector of the U.S. National Assessment. National Institute of Environmental Health. Environmental Health Perspectives. 2000 April; 108(4): 367–376. Web. 18 May 2013.
