Elections usually come down to a handful of states due to the way the Electoral College is set up. Those states are Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, also known as “swing” states or “purple” states. This assumes that each party holds on to its core big states. The democrats have California, New York, and Illinois. The republicans have Texas. What would happen if either party lost one of their key states? Well, doing a little math, the republicans only have one. To say it would have a rippling effect would be an understatement. Before we can answer this question, we need to determine how Texas can turn blue.
Texas likes its status of being the Lone Star state (Atkins, 2016). It is the state most at odds with the Federal Government and the Supreme Court (Rodgers, 2016). If secession were ever on the ballot, you can be sure Texas would be leading the way. Its demographics seemed to be maxed-out. The white vote cannot get any higher than the 75% it is now as the percentage of eligible white voters among the electorate is declining each year (Atkins, 2016). Millennials are becoming a larger voting block and tend to vote on progressive issues like climate change and gay marriage. Then you have the Hispanics. They are becoming a sizable portion of the voting electorate. The belief is they will vote democratic due to illegal immigration. But that may not be the case. Many hold traditional values which would lean more to republicans. Also, many are still ineligible to vote or don’t bother to show up if they are (Thorburn 2014).
Another thing that can turn the state blue is the continuing battle in the Republican Party between the establishment and the libertarian wing, also known as the Tea Party. The Tea Party gained popularity as cronyism and corruption became the norm and not the exception. People are fed up with politics as usual. This attitude affects the republicans far more than the democrats even though the same thing is happening there. If the democrats stop taking Hispanics for granted and stop ignoring the white vote, this spit in the Republican Party could cost them big come election time (Rodgers 2016).
Finally, Texas is a one industry state. Energy, particularly oil, dominates the state economically. When prices are high, everything is fine. But prices have dropped significantly over the past few years, from a high of $100 per barrel to the current price of $40, where it is expected to remain. This has hurt the state economically not only with lower wages, but higher unemployment as well. Unless it diversifies its economy, these developments could encourage people to vote for something different as the status quo is not working.
Now that we have established how Texas could turn blue, what would happen if it actually did? Well, before it turns blue, it will turn purple. Texas would look like Florida does now during election time: non-stop political ads from May until Election Day. That could be a boon for the state economy with the additional revenue that comes with running ads and conducting a political ground game. You can also expect the state to be flooded with lawyers. In addition, highly contested states often bring out the worst in people. Things like unruly behavior at candidate rallies and town halls, and accusations of cheating and voter fraud during the election often end up in the courts where tensions run high.
Now we are at the point where Texas has turned blue. As we stated earlier, republicans only have one core state in Texas. Now that they’ve lost it, they would never win another national election, meaning President of the United States. The GOP as we know it would be dead. A dead GOP would also have ramifications on house and senate elections. The result could be a democratic president, house and senate. Under this scenario, the Supreme Court would turn liberal since a democratic president gets to nominate Supreme Court justices and a democratic senate gets to confirm them. Let us look at these scenarios individually.
A dead GOP would leave the United States with a one party system. That means the half of the country with traditional values would have no one to represent them. Some of these values are faith in God, family oriented (households with a mom and a dad), strong work ethic, live in moderation, respect for authority, individual responsibility, and the right to defend yourself. Without the GOP, who would defend these values? I’m sure a new party would emerge, a mix between the old GOP and the libertarian wing. But that would mean a smaller focus on religion, the family, and national defense. That will not sit well with a lot of people.
Best case scenario is the new party takes a few election cycles to establish themselves. That means you will have eight to twelve years of not only a democratic president, but democratic rule in the house and senate as well. Certainly, the Supreme Court will turn liberal. There is currently a vacant seat. Let us say a moderate is chosen. That gives us a moderate court at best. Over the next ten years or so, as many as three justices will likely need to be replaced. All three will be liberal. Liberal justices view the constitution as a living document versus original intent. That means they can base their rulings solely on what they think the constitution should mean, not what it does mean.
Many of these rulings will come down to state versus individual rights. All will involve traditional values in some way. The main ones will be right to life (abortion), the right to bear arms (2nd amendment), and religious liberties. Will the state have authority over the individual? We can also expect cases involving gay marriage, climate change, and gender identity. There is no mention of any of these things in the constitution. According to the constitution, the government gets its power from the people. By definition, if it gets stronger, the people get weaker. It is a zero sum game.
As for actual governing, expect a significant increase in the bureaucratic state. The size and scope of government will expand. The government will have a major role in the means of production through regulations and the tax code. Taxes will go up to pay for welfare, education, and other government programs that benefit the state at the expense of the individual. Of course those taxes that are supposed to be paid by the wealthy will get passed down in the form of lower wages and fewer jobs. Businesses will either shrink or leave the United States entirely. The government will not be able to collect enough revenue from taxes, so they will have to have the Federal Reserve print the difference. These deficits will add to the already large national debt, and the result will be the dollar will be worth less. The United States will ultimately move away from capitalism towards socialism.
One party political system’s do not usually end well. In fact, they usually end up in revolution. It is practically impossible to have a democratic republic survive under such a system. Most democracies and democratic republics fail on average at 250 years. They all fail for the same reason: the public found a way to gain access to the treasury. With $19 trillion in debt and countless trillions in promises, that is clearly happening now. The United States will turn 250 years old in 2039. But I do not think this is the biggest threat to our existence. The cultural war is. The divide between those with traditional values and those with secular ones is so significant it is difficult to see how the union could even survive under a two party system. When you have a system where only half the population is represented and the divide is so great, a bad ending is inevitable. The question is how painful will that ending be. Will it be a bloody revolution or could it happen where states secede without any bloodshed? If Texas turned blue today, I would not be surprised if secession appeared on state ballots within ten years.
And blue Texas will lead the way.
Works Cited
Atkins, David. “Could Texas Turn Blue Within the Next Eight Years?” Washington Monthly 17 Jan. 2016:
Print.
Rodgers, Marybeth. “Turning Texas Blue?” Salon 31 Jan. 2016: Print.
Thorburn, Wayne. “Hispanics Won’t Turn Texas Blue” Politico 5 Oct. 2014: Print.
