Scenario Planning
The concept of scenario planning involves deriving a probable future situation, usually achieved through consistent description of one possible future outcome. Many researchers and other professionals attribute the process of scenario planning with a number of advantages, and highlight different approaches that can be utilized in deriving future scenarios. This paper seeks to evaluate the existing literature regarding scenario planning, the process of undertaking scenario planning, and the associated advantages.Specifically, the paper will evaluate the effects of communication technological advancements on the process of management. The development of future scenarios helps an organization to focus on how the process of change and stability management can be undertaken successfully to lead to desired outcomes. However, if the process is not consistent with organizational vision and the defining process of culture and internal consistencies, the outcome of the process may be unpleasant or considered inconsistent with the firm’s strategic think. The current trends in advances in communication technology will imply that organizations change the way they do business in the next 20 years. Kriticos et al. (2012) explain that the current rate of change in the approaches used in business communication imply that most of the traditional communication strategies will become obsolete before the end of the first quarter of the 21st century. Traditional methods of passing information including mail and fax services are fading at fast speeds. The advent of the Internet has introduced new and seemingly more reliable methods of relaying business communication. Expenses relating to conferencing have been significantly reduced by cheaper and faster options, such as, video conferencing and group chatting. This means that for businesses to remain competitive they will have to adapt innovative ways of implementing business communication strategies. This scenario planning discussion seeks to investigate the implications of high-tech business communication.
This scenario planning activity considers changes occasioned by advances in communication technology. The chosen domain is management and the scenario planning activity seeks to investigate how the implied changes in communication technology will affect the process of managing organizations. Given the current trends, it is expected that the next 20 to 30 years will cause a revolution regarding the way managers and organizational leaders undertake business communication. It is expected that business communication will be faster and it will increasingly be affected by the choice of medium. Changes will also mean that the communication media as are known today, will change and many other improved and sophisticated ones will be available.
Communication is considered to be a strategic contributor to organizational success. The way an organization communicates internally among employees or externally with other stakeholders including customers, suppliers, financiers, and others has a bearing on how it progressively moves towards set objectives.Recent changes in technology have forced organizations to revise the way they implement their communication strategies (Thomas 2007). The Internet is singled out as being the strongest factor in necessitating changes in business communication approaches. Firstly, considerations based on the speed of communication has significantly increased from the traditional mailing and faxing system to different digital platforms and emailing (Gimenez 2006).
Implication 1: Speed and Human Interactions
If the advancements in communication technology are sustained, the speed of communication will increase significantly. The process of passing information among businesses, clients, and other stakeholders has been significantly dynamic, and instant communication has received both praise and criticism. At one front, there has been a reduced personal contact between people, and this has created the effect of eroding touch and limiting communication to mechanical operation of gadgets and applications. It is not uncommon to witness virtual interference within the workplace since people sharing office space may not immediately realize the need for interpersonal interaction. The created situation is such that if you wish to pass information to a colleague, then there are a number of options available before a decision to show up at their desks is arrived at (Guffey et al. 2010).
The effects of the changes have some far reaching consequences. These include the fact that some aspects have made it difficult for interactions to yield the desired effects. Consider online shopping, for example, the process involved in dealing with customers has eliminated the one-on-one interaction process, which has made it increasingly difficult to deal with complaints and customer feedback. Proactive processes including management planning to achieve some level of progress towards achievement of responsive communication over the next twenty years will rely on extensive research and the implied process of increasing environmental and technological awareness in pursuing business goals (Thomas 2007).
Ringland (2002) proposes the consideration of process that encourages leaders and managers to seek to look at the outside as opposed to the inside of an organization when evaluating the communication scenarios to take the firm to the desired future position. This is particularly applicable when dealing with sensitive leaders who are informed of the internal as well as external factors that are influential to the achievement of success. Ringland (2002) appreciates the inherent challenges business communication is likely to undergo, and cautions that the process of building communication advancement scenarios is tiresome and may be particularly boring because of the repetitive nature of the tasks involved.
Implication 2: Versatility and Choice of Medium
Research highlights that the advent of social media and digital communication platforms has created a revolution and affected interactions at various levels (Guffey et al. 2010). The speed of communication implies that other processes have to be aligned with the communication strategy. The envisioned changes will mean that there will be a wide variety of media provided by expansion of the digital platform driven by further development of the Internet. If the change occasioned by social media platform is used as a basis of forecast, the future may mean that organizational management may be involved in the selection and development of tailor-made communication media. This will further introduce concerns relating to security and protection of business communication channels.
Implication 3: Organizational Investment Decisions and Financial Implications
The changes in communication technology might mean that management considers investing in technological infrastructure at unprecedented levels (Jameson 2007). Financing and insurance concerns are likely to influence the long term planning processes of organizations. It has to be noted that the future costs associated with technological infrastructure investment will go beyond the purchase of gadgets and software; it will have to factor in the people training process and relevant organizational adjustments considered relevant in the process of allowing changes. Problems might emerge in the attempts to reach a certain degree of strategy harmonization for individual firms (Reinsch et al. 2006).
The envisioned scenario for business communication involves a workplace that has a balance between the number of employees necessary to provide the required human capital, and the deployment of sufficient technological infrastructure and related processes. It is estimated that in 20 years, the factors influencing organizational change will display a departure from tradition, and emphasis will be placed squarely on the ability of organizations to embrace dynamism and relate with changes at a level where strategic concerns can happen without permitting a developmental or planning gap (Reinsch et al. 2006). Competition management will mean that since almost all firms will ride on the same or similar infrastructural platforms, variations will be influenced by efficiency and effectiveness approaches relating to how changes across the global environment will be managed.
Implication 4: Adoption of Digital Media
With inference from current trends, it is envisioned that in the next few years, advances in technology will make most firms migrate to digital media platforms. These platforms are expensive to implement in terms of initial infrastructure, but once the initial cost challenges will be overcome the resultant communication platforms are expected to be cheaper and reliable. The fact that such platforms recommend green-based and therefore paperless communication will make them particularly attractive given the current environmental protection debate. Research identifies four classifications of interventions that are necessary when planning to implement strategies geared towards achieving a future desired scenario through digital media. These include interpersonal interventions, techno-structural interventions, human resource management interventions, and strategic interventions (Kriticos et al. 2012). The set of interpersonal interventions that are considered appropriate include communication strategies, problem solving approaches, decision-making processes, interaction strategies, and leadership approaches. The technological interventions that are considered include division of labor recommendations, departmental coordination, processes for production of goods and services, and design research and practice (Postma et al. 2005). The applicable strategic interventions include determination of functions relating to product or service production, and applicable marketing concerns. Strategy will also consider progress towards the achievement of competitive advantages, environmental concerns, and the determination of values that are expected to offer guidance to organizational functioning through application of digital platforms (Duinker et al. 2007). There should be no rigid lines denoting the end of an intervention and the beginning of another, but the existence of a seamless fit for all organizational operations geared towards achieving and sustaining desired change. Investments in research and development should cater for mechanisms of ensuring that adapted digital platforms remain responsive to environmental and technological changes.
Implication 5: Business Environment Coordination
As business communication takes shape, there will be likelihood of enterprises adapting the development of similar or related communication strategies. With this happening at a global scale and on a sustained basis, there will be the leveling of business communication advancements and almost all enterprises will access the same choice of communication approaches. This is expected to contribute to increased coordination at the business environment level since competition will not rely majorly on communication strategy but it application on overall business strategy.
In undertaking the process of scenario planning to evaluate the way business will deal with advances in technology, existing literature highlights several coordination and strategy development advantages associated with the process leveraging the changes. Firstly, the process is considered instrumental in improving the way leaders and managers are able to understand the current issues affecting their organization from ordered imaginations of future likelihoods. This contributes to grounding organizational visioning in processes and systems that contribute to the early detection of change, and therefore preparing leadership accordingly in dealing with expected change (Phelps et al. 2001). The process involves the reduction of incidents of crisis management and therefore improvement of management capabilities in strategic change management (Chermack 2004). By working towards a known future position, management is made aware of the what-if situations, and advances in technology will mean availability of computer-based modeling platforms.
Scenario planning in the wake of increased coordination is expected to provide the means for the assessment of current strategies and goals, and as such it is possible to evaluate what will be required in terms of changes or additions to strategy. This is considered to provide an incremental framework for monitoring and controlling the strategy implementation process. There is consensus from researchers that consistent scenario planning aids in the process of encouraging participation of stakeholders in defining the future of an organization, which significantly improves management’s ability to deal with risk and uncertainty (Chermack et al. 2001). By choosing to actively participate in the scenario planning process, members increase their collective abilities in dealing with the unexpected.
Improved coordination will contribute to sensitizing leadership about resulting relationships when dealing with the outside world. They are able to factor in all variables involved in intra-organizational and extra-organizational interactions, and projecting the likely effect on the strategic process of attaining a desired future end (Chermack 2004).The conventional process of establishing the strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities (SWOT) looks to produce a variable map for organizational planning. When scenario planning is coupled with SWOT analysis, the relationships between and among the identified variables informs management about the sensitivity requirements for their planning processes.
Bradfield et al. (2005) propose a systematic process of laying the ground for scenario planning that involves environmental and system study, and integrating systems with the environment. The environmental study involves scanning the environment with a view to establishing changes and trends that are considered necessary for the process of planning. It will also seek to highlight characteristics of desirable global futures. Systems study involves evaluation of the history of the system in terms of where the organization came from, and it is achieved through systematic tracing of a firm’s roots. It also entails properties of the current systems, including what is considered good or bad and if things have to be dropped or improved in working towards a desirable future.
Paterson et al. (2003) point out that organizations dealing with change often get engrossed with the change process and disregard or do not consider the importance of managing other related variables including emphasis on stability. To achieve proper balance in the entire process, stability should be managed the same way change management is undertaken. In doing so, the importance of people in the organization should be clearly pointed out. It is also important to keep in mind the fact that there will be some aspects within the organization that may not be changed. These will include things and aspects that are considered to be of value, and which should have specific recommendations for improvement or maintenance.
In planning for the future, it is important to consider the levels of participation that are applicable to the entire process, including the responsibility of managers taking up more proactive roles in group management (Weisbord & Janoff, 2007). This may include how small groups of staff relate with the desired future position, as well as how such groups contribute to the supply of information, and whether interpretation of presented information necessitates the groups to choose to participate and take action in progressing towards the future. Heifetz et al. (2009) propose a whole system approach that ensures the inclusion of members based on need, resourcefulness, knowledge, and authority.
Heifetz et al. (2009) proposes a similar approach to Weisbord et al. (2007) with regards to ensuring that the entire organization is involved in planning for the future. The author emphasizes on the following steps on bringing on board every stakeholder. Firstly, the critical aspects of focusing on the past which involve establishing time lines of key events in the global arena, in the personal lives of the members, and the organization. By involving groups to undertake these activities, different stories constitute different scenarios, and therefore scenario varieties are possible. Secondly, the entire group creates a mind map that includes current trends affecting the members and relies on focusing on external trends. It will also consider what stakeholder groups are interested in doing presently and what they desire to do in the future. Thirdly, focusing on the present ensures that stakeholder groups are able to identify their successful accomplishments as well as what they are not happy about regarding the happenings in the organization. Fourthly, beginning a candid process for the identification of ideal future scenarios where the stakeholder groups suggest desirable future scenarios, and undertake to describe such a future situation as though it has been accomplished. Fifthly, the identification of a common ground, which is arrived at by different groups posting themes believed to be common grounds for all. Sixthly, the process of confirmation of the common ground identified through open dialogues for all groups. Seventhly, the action planning process that involves soliciting confirmed participation by all groups in the action implementation process.
In conclusion, scenario planning will be instrumental in adequately preparing organizations to prepare for communication technology changes. Current trends can be used as bases for the recommendations relating to managing the gap between the desired future position, and the present scenarios. If organizations were able to weather the year 2000 millennium challenge, the expected changes in the identified scenario are deemed to present possible but not entirely untenable challenges. Organizations will in particular be required to improve their change detection systems, and initiate processes geared towards preparing for change and planning to manage emerging expectations. Departments may be evaluated and reorganized depending on the recommendations provided by institutionalized change management structures. Management may have to be sufficiently prepared to deal with the process though training and change planning.
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