1.) CLIMATE CHANGE
I. Notes on the Situation
According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) climate change refers to changes in the Earth’s climate that have occurred over the course of its existence. Change to the climate occur as a result of “very small variations in the Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy” that reach the surface (NASA). A slight change in that energy can, for instance, result in the beginning or end of a period of extreme temperatures such as the ice age.
Over the last three hundred years, and especially over the last century, the Earth has experienced a decided increase in amount of solar energy that remains within the atmosphere. The results being a general warming of the Earth. Scientific evidence points out that for the most part, the warming of the Earth is the result of human activities. In addition, the rate which human activities have increased the temperature of the Earth are not declining. In fact, human activity is increasing the temperature of the Earth “at a rate unprecedented in the past 1,300 years” (NASA).
II. Carbon Emissions
According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), global warming, or the warming of the Earth, is due to an increase in “greenhouse gases” such as carbon dioxide or the elements to work to trap solar energy within the Earth’s atmosphere (EPA). While greenhouse gases are naturally present in the atmosphere, human activities such as the widespread use of fossil fuels and the elimination of forests or other natural means of removing greenhouse gases.
2.) CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CONTINUED HIGH LEVELS OF CARBON EMISSIONS POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY
I. Climate Change Can Affect Food and Water Security
One of the clearest indicators of global warming has been the increase in extreme weather events. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); in the United States alone, the number of extreme weather events such as record high temperatures, excessive rainfall and flooding or droughts have increased significantly since 1950 (NOAA). These changes, have naturally been replicated across the world. In addition, to the traditional issues that these event pose to the smooth and effective administration of communities in which they occur, a more fundamental problem is that they can pose substantial adverse effects on the production of food and the ability for communities to access water. Depending on the location, the combination of extreme weather events and food and water security can result in short-term chaos, long-term instability, and eventually failed states. Failed states have shown significant ability to breed eventual threats to American interests such as Boko Haram in Nigeria and ISIS/ISIL in Syria and Iraq.
II. Climate Change Natural Disasters
Another example of the effects of global warming, according to NASA, is fundamental changes to the environmental properties if the Earth that have existed for centuries (NASA). For example, higher temperatures have led to melting glaciers and are rising sea levels. The potential for these changes to result in natural disasters cannot be underestimated. Depending on the location, the occurrence of a natural disaster will most likely require a U.S. response that will put American people and resources at risk. Additionally, people will attempt to flee the danger zone which might result in mass migrations of people across borders in the search for safety and shelter. This could result in a violent response by locals against the migrants eventually drawing U.S. involvement or the targeting of U.S. interests for failing to respond.
III. Climate Change Can Influence Resource Competition
Decreased access to food, water and resources as a result of natural disasters, extreme weather events, and fundamental changes to the environment brought about by global warming has the potential to force countries to try to access resources in not traditional areas or, conversely, to set up barriers to access. This can result in the increased volatility of nations against another as each tried to obtain or protect those resources that it feels are necessary to its survival or the survival of its people. Such conflicts have the potential of draw in U.S. involvement or otherwise but the nation’s interests at risk. To be sure, there are a number of allies, such as Japan, that the U.S. might need to assist if a confrontation with, China, for instance, over access to fishing areas in the East China Seas begins.
IV. Climate Change is a Threat Multiplier
Even in the absence of the above mentioned scenarios, the effects of global warming will tend to increase the risk of more traditional threats that are already under consideration. For example, in terms of a fragile state that already poses a significant threat to the U.S. on account of its inability to fight or control a terrorist organization that openly and activity targets U.S. interests. An extremely weather event or a natural disaster might either increase the likelihood that the government will fail and therefor give the terrorist organization the opportunity to actually take control of land, such as is the case with ISIS/ISIL, on which to launch strikes and protect its members. Similarly, such events may occupy the government to the extent that they do not have the ability to fight against the terrorist organization; there by giving them more time, and resources to plan and carry out attacks against the U.S.
3.) CONCLUSION
For the above reasons, it is the belief of the Central Intelligence Agency that climate change actually exists and is getting worse as human activity produces more carbon emissions to trap in greenhouse gases. In addition, we recommend that immediate steps be taken to reduce or at least maintain the status quo of carbon emission. Failure to accomplish this will most likely increase the risk posed by climate change related events to the nation’s security.
Works Cited
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). “Climate Change: How do we know?” NASA, 23 Jun. 2016. Web. http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI): Introduction.” NOAA. Web. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/index.html
United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). “Overview of Greenhouse Gases.” EPA, 27 May 2016. Web. https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/co2.html
