Position Paper: Ukraine
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to study the separatist movement in Ukraine. The paper is written from the position of Ukrainian Government and contains research results as well as recommendations for the Government. During the research it was found out that the origins of the separatist movement have deep historical roots and date back to the Soviet Union times. It seems that the Euromaidan movement provoked the wave of internal instability in the state, which led to uprising in Crimea as well as in the Eastern regions of Ukraine, resulting in the separatist movement on territories populated by minorities. On the other hand, the results of the research demonstrate that during the last two years Russia has conducted aggressive policy towards Ukraine by having annexed a part of Ukraine`s territory as well as by encouraging the separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk regions through supporting pro-Russian minorities and by providing military assistance. Moreover, Russia does not fully comply with the Minsk Agreements. From its side, Ukrainian Government believes that a key to resolving the conflict lies in the fulfillment of the mentioned Agreements.
Keywords: Ukraine, Crimea, annexation, separatism, Russia, aggression, Euromaidan.
The current position of Ukrainian Government towards the separatist movements lies in non-recognition of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People`s Republic. The key international documents Ukrainian authorities call upon are the Minsk Agreements, reached in order to give the regions in question more autonomy as well as to deescalate tension and military actions along the border with the Russian Federation.
If one looks at the developments from historical retrospective, he will see that the bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine have always been complicated. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has been trying to have Ukraine in its sphere of political influence by using its monopolistic status of gas supplier. Moreover, a significant part of Ukrainian politicians have connection with Russian authorities, which led to passing certain laws and regulation in order to promote and encourage Russian business in Ukraine.
Moreover, the historical and cultural destinies of the two states are deeply interconnected, with 22% of Ukrainian population being ethnic Russians. The Russian population of Ukraine is concentrated mostly in the Eastern and Southern regions of the State, including the Crimea Peninsular. Therefore, a political party from the East of Ukraine “The Party of Regions”, evidently conducted pro-Russian policy, which caused two revolution in ten years: Orange Revolution in 2004 and Euromaidan in 2013.
. In 2004, the pro-Russian politicians from the East of the country were overthrown by the opposition from the Western regions led by Victor Yushchenko. However, the opposition has a lack of experience in public policy and international affairs, which led to the failure of Orange Revolution. One more issue was political tension within the party, mainly caused by ambitions of Yulia Timoshenko.
The mentioned failure resulted into the return of Russian-oriented elite from the East of Ukraine. The key reason, which provoked the people of Ukraine to start one more revolution, more aggressive this time, was the decision by the then-President Victor Yanukovych not to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union. Instead Yanukovych proposed that Ukraine should strengthen its ties with Russia by entering the Eurasian Customs Union.
The events of Euromaidan met criticism from the Russian side. On the contrary, Ukrainian Government blames the Russian one for its imperial geopolitical ambitions. New authorities in Ukraine believe that the Eurasian Customs Union was designed as a tool to keep independent post-Soviet states in the Russian sphere of influence. Speaking about ambitions of Russia in the region, we should recall separatist movements in Moldova, Georgia and Armenia, which have turned into the so-called “frozen conflicts”. Russia is believed to be responsible for the events in region as long as it has enough economic, political and military resources to settle the conflicts.
Therefore, Ukrainian Government is convinced that Russia is responsible for provoking and supporting the separatist movements in the East of Ukraine. Destabilization of Ukraine puts into question the inviolability of its borders, which automatically reduces the chances of Ukraine to join NATO and the European Union as long as those powerful international players are not interested in admitting to membership a state that is likely to weaken the organization. Moreover, nor the EU not NATO are willing to aggravate their relations with Russia because they have certain common interests, including international stability and security in the region.
As to the problem of separatism, Ukrainian Government is sure that Russia has been evidently involved into the conflict by providing humanitarian aid to the region in the envoy of vehicles, which was suspected of delivering weapons and supplies to the separatists. One more aspect is the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which is believed to have been accidently caused from the territory, controlled by the separatists. A question arises concerning a supplier, who was able to provide the separatists with powerful military weapon. Ukrainian Government has also certain doubts concerning the nationality of the separatists. Most of them are believed to be professional soldiers from Russia because they are well-prepared and have strong military skills.
Therefore, the rise of separatist movements in the regions of Ukraine with a great percentage of Russian population is considered to be a provocation caused by Russia in order to weaken and destabilize Ukraine, so that the latest stays in its sphere of influence. However, from the political and economic perspectives, relations with the EU and NATO might be more beneficial for both Ukraine and its citizens. That is why Ukrainian Government is convinced that it should seek for further integration with the mentioned organizations.
Nevertheless, it is evident that NATO and other key international players, including the EU and the US, weren`t cautious enough to predict the uprising in the East of Ukraine and the Russian support of the separatists. All in all, Ukrainian Government should further seek to deescalate the tension in Donetsk and Luhansk regions by involving the international community and by making Russia comply with the Minsk Agreements, because Ukraine will never recognize independence of DPR and LPR as well as the annexation of Crimea.
References
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