World rankings of XIX century depended on many factors, but the most important of them was the military power of the state. The maximum level of development of the military power of a state is determined by the extent of its military capabilities. The military potential of the state is a set of involved and potential material and spiritual possibilities of the state, which can be used for military purposes at the maximum and timely disclosure and use. Each state shall take care of the effectively implementation of its policies, the protection of their interests in international relations, ensuring its security against internal and external enemies. To carry out these tasks the states need a certain military bearing. That is why military might is so strong value in the preparation of world rankings.
However, the military potential of the state, being the source of its military power, is not independent of other state's potentials. It certainly depends on the economic, scientific-technological and social potentials.
The economic potential in the broad sense is the aggregate mass of available labor and materials, natural resources, scientific and technological knowledges and the educational level of those who employed in social production etc. All these components of economic potential are interrelated and their combination determines the term of use and level of rapid development. (William Bernstein, 2009)
The scientific and technical potentials are the totality of labor, material and financial resources in the sphere of science and scientific service, the accumulated knowledge in the field of public natural sciences, technical sciences, as well as industrial experience, which has the country and that it can be used in the process of practical implementation of scientific and technological progress.
The potential of social development is a set of industries, enterprises, institutions, relating to the non-production sphere, various types of social activities and buildings that provide the livelihoods of workers and the population of a particular administrative and economic entity.
At the beginning of the XIX century allied states victory over Napoleonic France completed a turbulent period in European history, which began with the French Revolution in XVIII century. There was a peace. The winners had to solve many issues of political structure of post-war Europe. To do this, they organized a big diplomatic congress, which secured the new balance of powers in Europe that prevailed to that time. The leading role in the negotiations played a meeting of representatives from four of the great powers of the time: England, Austria, Russia and Prussia. Later to the committee of four was able to enter the representative of France - also great, but the defeated state. A committee of five was established - the headquarters of the governing Congress. Opinions of the representatives of other countries weren’t taken into account. (Lamont Colucci, January/February 2015)
The main document - the Final Act of the Congress of Vienna that consists of 121 articles was signed on 9 of June in 1815. It was the most extensive agreement of all the international agreements concluded so far.
He called for a territorial redistribution of Europe in the interests of the victorious states. Defeated France had been deprived of all the gains and returned to the prewar borders of 1792. Russia absorbed most of the Polish lands with Warsaw. Prussia received the northern part of Saxony, the richest German region - Rhine province and Westphalia, as well as Swedish Pomerania and the western Polish lands with the city of Poznan.
North-Eastern Italy was transferred TO Austria (Lombardy, Venice). On thrones of small Italian duchies were set rulers of the Austrian House of Habsburg. Duchy of Parma, for example, was given life in possession of the daughter of the Emperor of Austria, second wife Marie Louise Napoleon. Austria had a dominant influence in Italian affairs.
England on the European continent has not received anything, but it has kept the island of Malta and recently seized possession of other countries - Cape Colony in Southern Africa and the island of Ceylon.
The new international order established by the Vienna and some other agreements, called "Vienna system". The Vienna system has recorded a new geographical map of Europe, a new correlation of geopolitical forces. The basis of this system has been put in the first place, the principle of imperial control of geographic space within the colonial empires. At the Vienna system finally formed Empire: British - 1876, German - 1871; French - the middle of the XIX century, in 1877 the Turkish sultan took the title of "Emperor of the Ottomans." Russia became an empire much earlier, in 1721. The Vienna system has determined that the state of all the above criteria can be attributed to the top three political states in XIX century. They were: England, Austria and Russia.
With regard to the 21 century, considering all the facts above, it is possible to assume that the three leading countries include China, India and Russia.
While before the 21st century the main focus was on military capabilities, by the end of 21st century, both military and military and economic potential of the state are equally important. It is also becoming increasingly important scientific and technical progress of the state. However, we should not forget about the social and demographic situation, which also has a sufficient impact on the overall picture of the development of a country. Thus, we consider the prospects for each country in accordance with the above parameters. (Sunil Dasgupta, 7 January 2016)
Scenarios of China’s perspectives is very optimistic and many forecasters argue that the strong growth of its economy will keep for a long time, resulting in the near future, that it will overtake the US, resolve their main problems and become a leader of the modern world. China's economic model is one of the most prominent and effective economic models around the world. It is based on three "pillars": attracting investment, export orientation and a record low cost of labor. With such a rapid and phenomenal economic growth in such a short time, China is uniquely claim to the top spot in the world rankings in the coming century. China is becoming an increasingly important player in the field of innovation. The country developed a state innovation system in the field of science and technology, which are an important element of basic research, the creation of the necessary infrastructure for R&D. If in 1985, according to UN data, in index of high-tech products the country was not included even in the top 25 in the world; in 1998 it rose to 11th place. Since 2004, the export of such goods began to exceed imports. The range of high-tech products in the top four leaders: electronics and telecommunications equipment, computers and office supplies. China has 14.7% share of the world's scientific staff (the US share - 22.8%, Japan - 11.7%, Russia - 8.9%). All analysts are unanimous in their opinion that the modernization of weapons and the construction of the defense industry in China is highly effective and showing the highest dynamics among all countries of the world. They point to the fact of copying technologies in most modern designs for the Chinese army, however, recognize each year the growth of their own development of Chinese institutions and enterprises. In addition to missile systems, all based spectrum and range experts say the success in creating a stealth fighter 5th generation J-20 and J-31, as well as success in the completion of the Soviet aircraft carrier. Ambitions of Chinese dragon are now spread even to distant space, Beijing has had his own global program of "Star Wars."
Human resources are one of the most important factors of the development in the world. appearance on the world stage in the early twenty-first century of such giants as China and India, and other countries with fast-growing major economies will inevitably lead to a reassessment of old stereotypes and perceptions about the world order and the nature of the relationship between the developed states and the rest of the world. The political, economic and military potential of India allows experts to consider them not only a strong regional power, but also one of the future "centers of power" in the world order of the XXI century. The demographic factor is having a huge impact on the economy and social well-being of Indian society, and military might. India is trying to draw the population growth in the economic dividend. And as a result, Indian economy is one of the fastest growing in the world. In terms of GDP, India is in fifth place in the world, ahead of countries such as France and the United Kingdom. Over the last 10 years India has achieved 50 per cent growth in industrial output and 65 per cent increase in exports of high-tech products. The current state of the Indian economy is stable and has a positive dynamics. India is not only the recipient, but also the investor in the economies of other countries. According to the RBI, the total amount transferred overseas of direct investment by Indian companies in 2014 was more than US $ 38.2 billion. The Indian government ensures the financial stability of the whole country in recent years. Relatively high rates of socio-economic development of India and the improvements in the lives of many people become the fundamental achievements of the Indian society and the state. Military and political leadership of India considers the armed forces as one of the main guarantors of national security and territorial integrity of the state, as well as an effective tool of regional policy. In this regard, it is given sustained attention to the military development and, above all, the development of the Armed Forces, equipping them with modern types of armament and military equipment, improving the organizational structure of formations and units, increasing the efficiency of command and control systems.
On behalf of the President of the Russian Federation Ministry of Economic Development and Trade has developed the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the country for the period until 2020, the aim of which was to determine ways to improve the sustainable well-being of Russian citizens, strengthen the economic security of the country and development of the Russian economy. At the same time the main strategic economic guideline was called the restore of Russian global economic superpower status. The strategic goal was proclaimed the transformation of the state into one of the global leaders of the world economy. World economic growth will be achieved mainly by developing countries, especially China and India, which will determine 45-50% of the world economy growth. Russia strengthened its military capabilities. The annual report of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg argues that Russia in the past three years has significantly increased the number of military exercises. According to the alliance, in the period from 2013 to 2016 the Russian armed forces conducted 18 large-scale exercises, while some of them have taken part more than 100 thousand of soldiers. Capacity of Russia's military power in the framework of the exercise has reached rates unseen since the Cold War. According to the British in 2015 Russia's military budget increased by $ 11 billion. In addition, the Russian Federation is one of the leading exporters in the world market of arms and military equipment. Predicted estimates show that in the second half of this decade is likely further increase in exports of Russian military products. (Gideon Rose, May/June 2016 Issue)
After analyzing the data, we can conclude that the main criteria in determining the place of the state in the world ranking of the 21st century are the economic, military, scientific, technological and social. It is the development of these areas makes the states the world leaders. Of particular importance in the 21st century have the economic and military potentials. All three of the alleged leaders are rapidly developing in terms of economy; all three countries are also nuclear-weapon States, with a vast territory, vast natural and human resources and military potential. Besides China, India and Russia maintained fairly close relations practically in all spheres, and are even included with the other two states into a single organization - the BRICS, which already is an important link in the chain of global political, economic and trade relations in the international arena. All these factors give a clear background to these states to become the leading world powers in this century.
References
Gideon Rose (May/June 2016 Issue). Putin's Russia. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved April 30, 2016, from: <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-04-20/putins-russia>
Isabel Hull (2014). A Scrap of Paper: Breaking and Making International Law during the Great War. Cornell University Press. p. 17. Retrieved April 30, 2016
Lamont Colucci (January/February 2015). Great Power Conflict: Will It Return? World Affairs. Retrieved April 30, 2016, from: < http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/great-power-conflict-will-it-return>
Sunil Dasgupta (7 January 2016) What Makes a Great Power? The International Relations and Security Network. Retrieved April 30, 2016, from: <http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?id=192375>
William Bernstein (2009). A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World. Grove/Atlantic. pp. 326–28. Retrieved April 30, 2016
