In today’s climate there has been seen many drastically changes. With climate changes the climate models represent even greater importance with its possibility to examine past climate events and predict the future ones. The models help us understand past and future climate. Contemporary environmental and climate change issues and threats towards which the humanity is going can be predicted based on the sophisticate qualitative and quantitative information.
The thesis of this research paper follows: the global climate model it is not perfect, but the best known way to predict future climate. The research questions are how the model has evolved, changed, advanced, improved, how is it used and what parameters does the model consider when making the forecasts and what are other alternatives.
The global climate model – atmospheric general circulation model that is a weather forecast model handles atmosphere in three dimensions, it analyses the ocean surface temperatures and at least some basic land surface process. The model represents properties of the atmosphere, land surface and the oceans in three dimensions.
The first climate models have been evolving from the early 19 century onward. Global climate depends on three different types of computer models. One is simulation models based on the physical theory in the 1940s. Reanalysis models retrieved from weather forecasting from actual observations that has been creating since the 1990 global climate data based on the weather record. The third model is data analysis model. The model uses mathematical techniques, algorithms and empirically derived adjustments. Global climate model is just a name for many various models that today exists in the world (Gupta, 2014). The development of examining model began in 1980 onward by the Met Office.
AOGCM model is based on mathematical relations for the entire Earth’s surface. Main processes of the climate systems are solved in various sub-models separately from the atmosphere, ocean, Earth’s surface, membrane ice and biosphere. Heath, moisture and momentum displacement are included in the simulation. The past Earth’s climate, the data on greenhouse emissions, produced aerosols from volcanic activity; sun radiation fluctuations are put into the scale on a monthly basis the past and also the future predicated values need to be put into the simulation to predict the future events (Eslamian, 2014). All said is true for the Unified Model – UM - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3). It is a climate model that can predict, detect and attribute to other climate studies. It was developed in the year 1999 as a weather climate prediction model. The Hadley Centre collects several global data set of tropospheric data (pressure, temperature, and relative humidity), land and marine data. The model has overcome some of the major difficulties from previous models of equilibrium and transient climate change experiments and does not need flux adjustment. It is a global not regional model (Brown et al., 2007).
It was one of the major models used in the IPCC. Prior to this model various different models were made by the Hadley Centre but they were more complex and more expensive and did not show such good results HaDGEM1-HaDGEM3 (Brown et al, 2007). The model is unique since it one of the first global climate models that does not need flux adjustments and also because it has shown the predictions are based on the real events and has in the past predicted the results that really happened in the history. The model is needed to further develop good global climate models and this model was and still is a great and good example of the climate models. The model uses monthly precipitations, solar radiation and minimum and maximum temperatures with consideration of the rise of global temperature, CO2 concentrations and sees level rise with this projection is added current weather file to develop climate change scenarios. In those scenarios are incorporated estimates of future population levels, economic activity, social values, governance, and patterns of technological change. Based on this model the IPCC has made a prediction of various scenarios.
As in all global climate models also this model has many uncertainties. There are however also some critics made about the model. The biggest uncertainty in simulation and prediction for the regional levels since it is made for the global scale. There is no fact about the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the future, with using different inputs different outputs are reached. The uncertainty to the sensitivity to the radiation force, since different predictions about the rise of temperature is predicted.
The model is special since it is the further development of the first presented global climate model that did not require flux adjustments (artificial adjustments). Till today it is important since it ranks highly compared with other global climate models. It has shown to be very useful when studying detection and attribution of past climate changes (Met Office, 2013). In the future with increased computer power the models will improve. There is a possibility of full realization and more improved models and the basic ground and to work on it is the model very important. It has brought a lot of improvement in the field or researched about the climate and will further improve the researched field since it is still used in many occasions. Improvements and adjustments will be seen with the rising computer capacity. The critics about simplifying the nature will always exist. Also the consequences and prediction could change based on the development of the technology and human actions.
Work cited
Brown, S., Clark, R, Collins, M., Collins, W., Dearden, C., Gunson, J., Harris, G., Jones, C., Keen, A., Lowe, J., Pope, V., Ringer, M., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Webb, M., Woodward, S. (2007). The Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Modelling Capability: the Competing Requirements to Improved Resolution, Complexity and Dealing With Uncertainty. Retrieved http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1860/2635
Eslaiman, Saeid. (2014). Handbook of Engineering Hydrology: Modeling, Climate Change, And Variability. Danvers: Taylor & Francis Group.
Gupta, Joyeeta. (2014). The History of Global Climate Governance. New York: Cambridge University Press
Met Office. (2013). Met Office Climate Prediction model: HadCM3. Retrieved http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/climate- models/hadcm3
