Introduction:
The debate surrounding global warming is important due to the growing concern of potential consequences for not only humans, but all that inhabit the Earth. A changing climate produces uncertainty regarding the future, which places a great deal of stress on human institutions as well as the natural ecosystem. However, others argue that the effects on the environment are primarily natural processes and were not impacted by human behavior. In assessing the current state of research regarding this debate a better understanding of the contribution that various activities have on the climate can be attained. This can help to provide insight into the best way to approach the question of global warming.
Greenhouse Gases:
The debate surrounding the level of impact that greenhouse gasses have on the global climate was discussed at the Paris conference. Evidence was presented indicating that these gasses can build up in the atmosphere and lead to profound changes in how the Earth absorbs and reflects the light and warmth given off by the sun. According to the IPCC, emerging economies are the most susceptible to these changes (2016). However, in response to this, the NIPCC, who demonstrate that industrial structures that primarily rely on emissions in order to maintain their manufacturing capacity are argue that these changes were the result of natural processes. For this reason, both sides were primarily concerned with the framework that is developed being “clear about the funding they might receive to help reduce emissions and cope with locked-in climate change” (Taylor, 2016). Recent evidence presented during these debates suggests that if the global civilization that has been built up over the past century continues to produce the same amount of greenhouse gasses as it is today then “the CO 2 concentration will be more than twice the one it was before the Industrial Revolution” (Brown et al., 2009, p. 2344). This demonstrates the potential impact that these activities could have on the overall health of the environment. In reaction to these assessements, the NIPCC has “vigorously criticized IPCC for their exaggerating the effect of human-generated GHGs on climate change” (Jian-Bin, et al., 2012, p. 41). They demonstrate that the relationship between humanity and the environment is complex and that the data cited by the IPCC is unreliable due to a poor focus on geographic distribution.
In response to this the IPCC have presented data that reaches back further into history. They argues that this provides evidence that “atmospheric concentration of CO2 , has systematically increased since the Industrial Revolution, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels” (Brown et al., 2009, p. 2351). However, the NIPCC challenges this, citing discrepancies in weather patterns associated with anthropocentric activity. This is primarily due to the level of complexity associated with the issue of greenhouse emissions. Furthermore, it is difficult to develop verifiable tests that can accurately assess the damage that these activities have had. “The climate system, like so many other large, complex systems, cannot be studied in a traditional laboratory research setting” (Baum, Haqq-Misra, & Karmosky, 2012, p. 394). This presents a problem when attempting to pursue objective observations of climate change related to emissions. However, those who support the idea of a human impact indicate that there are various ways that these models can be understood more concretely. Despite this complexity “some key aspects of it can be described in relatively simple terms” (Baum, Haqq-Misra, & Karmosky, 2012, p. 395). Other factors, such as carbon sinks and the natural warming of the environment are given by skeptics as alternatives as well. Despite these variables, proponents indicate that “the observed warming cannot be reproduced without including anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions as a factor” (Baum, Haqq-Misra, & Karmosky, 2012, p. 396). For them, this demonstrates that there are indeed climate effects that can be linked to human activity and evidence suggests that greenhouse gasses from human activity are a primary cause of these changes. For their opponents, however, the effects of human activity are cannot be proven to be fully understood in relation to the natural environment.
Temperature Changes:
Another important issue related to climate change that was framed during the Paris conference was the increasing fluctuations in temperature and an overall increase in the average warmth of the planet. The research regarding these changes as lain out in the climate debate is primarily concerned with the future of island nations and the need to contain the temperature fluctuations beneath a certain threshold (Taylor, 2016). Opponents of the idea of global warming contend, however, that there would be major economic impacts if these proposals were implemented. Proponents present evidence suggesting that “the annual mean trend in surface temperature shows warming” (Wang et al., 2012, p. 6). This warming has a profound effect on the weather patterns as well as the overall climate. They argue that warming air currents have had an effect on the poles, which generally exhibit colder weather patterns but, in recent years, have begun to show evidence of warming. They present research that points to the fact that “Arctic climate change is, indeed, closely related to global large-scale circulation changes in both the atmosphere and ocean” (Wang et al., 2012, p. 17). This seems to have resulted in a runaway warming effect that has been compounding upon itself. Data suggests that there has been a growing trend in weather patterns leading to growing warming. Climate data suggests that “the past several complete decades has been notably warmer than the prior decade” (Hansen et al., 2015, p. 3). This indicates that it is not only getting warmer, but at a faster rate as time moves forward. This fact, they argued, has caused quite a bit of concern among the scientific community. These patterns seem to be approaching above average temperatures when viewed on a longer time scale. It is also important to understand, they note, that “the record global warmth of 2014 was achieved in a year in which the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were in a nearly neutral or very weak El Niño state” (Hansen et al., 2015, p. 4). This is important due to a suggested correlation between heightened El Nino activities and increasing global temperatures. A year that has a strong El Nino effect could result in profoundly warmer temperatures. Opponents of the notion of global warming, including the NIPCC, maintain that “the current warming of natural rather than anthropogenic” (Jian-Bin, 2012, p. 44). They argue that there is not enough evidence to rule out that the warming of the planet and changes in the climate are due to natural processes that occur on larger scales than previously measured. The cause of these changes has therefore been debated among climatologists and other scientists.
Deforestation, Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels:
Issues surround various other factors related to climate change were debated as well. These include deforestation, melting ice, and rising sea levels. One of the major implications of the Paris debates was that there would be a limitation set on the temperature changes that the Earth would be allowed to take. This is important due to the impact that temperature changes can have on rising sea levels. Those nations that are at risk of being overcome by these sea levels have a particularly high stake in this debate. Doing so, they believe, would “significantly reduce risks and impacts of climate change” (Taylor, 2016). However, the economic implications of these accords are also a concern. Deforestation is a major concern to the impact of human activity on CO2 emissions. In fact, research suggests that a “significant source of CO2 emissions is deforestation” (Gorte & Sheikh, 2010, p. 1). However, opponents of the theory of global warming indicate the importance of being sure of the anthropogenic origins of climate change before making drastic decisions. The impact of deforestation, they argue, is difficult to predict. This is due to the fact that “ cover more than a quarter of the land area in the world but are not uniformly distribution” (Gorte & Sheikh, 2010, p. 2). This results in an unequal amount of forest in various parts of the world. This has profound effects on the policies and resources that are mobilized by various countries in regards to management of forests. Furthermore limitations placed on deforestation has had many challenges politically. Deforestation often occurs as “a result of forests being cleared for other land uses such as farming or ranching” (Gorte & Sheikh, 2010, p. 3). This makes it difficult to develop uniform policies that can be focused on the general population. However, scientists and other global warming proponents argue that the environmental consequences of deforestation go beyond local or regional challenges.
Another major issue that has often been brought up in the debate surrounding climate change is melting sea ice. Proponents argue that the warming climate has resulted in a profound loss of ice at both of the poles that has further contributed to rising sea levels. These changes have led to “dramatic decreases in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent and thickness” (Wang et al., 2012, p. 1). This is a major problem, as the arctic climate has been seen to profoundly effect the weather patterns over the entire Earth. This is further confounded by the fact that arctic ice has been profoundly decreasing. “Changes in sea ice can reflect and impact Arctic climate state to a much larger extent than in any other regions” (Wang et al., 2012, p. 20). These developments, they argue, have contributed to rising sea levels as well. They believe this demonstrates that there is a profound connection between human activity contributing to deforestation, increasing carbon emissions, growing average temperatures, melting ice, and rising sea levels. Opponents express the limitations of using the complex and dynamic water table as a source of information for the promotion of a global warming ideology. These changes can only be assessed in relation to the patterns of snow accumulation over the global system. Global warming advocates express the understanding that the “presence [or absence] of snow or ice in polar regions is associated with an increased [or decreased] temperature difference, which affects winds and ocean currents” (Lemke & Ren, 2007, p. 340). They argue that these connections demonstrate the profound importance of better understanding the interconnected patterns that govern the global climate.
Solar Activity and Volcanic Eruptions:
Opponents of global warming advocates have made the general argument that there are a variety of other processes related to natural forces that are out of human control to effect these changes. Events such as solar activity and volcanic eruptions are evidence of natural changes that will occur without human activities and other smaller processes in place to contribute were debated. According to the IPCC report solar activity occurs over various patterns that span various time-periods (2016). These patterns can be seen to effect climate and other global processes. These patterns can be seen due to the fact that “the variations of sunspots and faculae on the sun’s surface, the total solar irradiance (TSI), also called the solar constant, varies on a roughly 11-year cycle” (Camp & Tung, 2007, p. 1). Opponents of global warming indicate that these patterns can be seen to contribute to various essential processes that occur on a natural cycle. The IPCC suggests that these cycles contribute to patterns of warming and cooling that can be seen in Earth's history. However, these processes are not enough to account for the level of warming that has been measured. Opponents present research that has indicated “the zonal-mean warming to be positively correlated with the solar-cycle index over most of the troposphere” (Camp & Tung, 2007, p. 3). This demonstrates the level of impact that the sun's natural cycles have on the Earth. This demonstrates that “the global-temperature response to the solar cycle is statistically significant” (Camp & Tung, 2007, p. 4). Opponents present this as a suorce of evidence against the idea of human induced warming.
Volcanic activity can also have profound effects on climate. Eruptions generally result in “the emission into the atmosphere of large quantities of solid particles (ash) and gaseous substances in a short period of time” (Cole-Dai, 2010, p. 2). Evidence suggests that these emissions can, over short periods of time, profoundly effect global climate. Opponents to global warming indicate that this is evidence that further research is needed regarding the human impact on the environment. However, proponents of global warming argue that volcanoes have been found to have little long-term effects on smaller scales. Looking at general trends throughout history, the data indicates that there is “no clear relationship between volcanic eruption frequency and climate change” (Cole-Dai, 2010, p. 7). However, opponents argue that there can be profound weather effects resulting from an eruption that can last years. They demonstrate that volcanic activity is “one of the important natural forcings causing short-term climatic variations” (Cole-Dai, 2010, p. 11). These variations can work in tandem with other, more long-term processes that can contribute to a larger pattern of climate change. For global warming opponents, these processes are evidence of natural processes leading to warming. Proponents of warming, however, indicate that these processes fall short of the total amount of warming that has been seen.
Conclusion:
The debate surrounding global warming has demonstrated that the increasing average temperatures that have been objectively measured are ultimately the result of a changing climate. These changes should be considered in relation to the various processes that cause them. Not only increasing carbon emissions resulting from natural processes and human activity, but also changes in temperature, deforestation, melting ice, and rising sea levels are all potential factors that contribute to these changes. Furthermore, elements such as solar and volcanic activity also have an effect, though in some cases limited. Current research seems to demonstrate that there are a variety of complex factors that contribute to these events. In analyzing the relationship between climate change and these processes a better understanding of their contribution to global warming can be achieved.
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