The study of meteorological materials in all regions of the globe, prove that the climate is not constant, but is a subject to some certain changes. Beginning in the late XIX century, warming particularly intensified in 1920-30., but then a slow cooling started, which ended in 1960. Geologists’ studies of the earth's crust of sediments have shown that in the past era there was much greater climate change. These changes happened due to natural processes, that is why they are called natural (Martelle, 2013).
The following effects of global warming are projected:
sea level rise due to melting glaciers and polar ice caps (for the last 100 years is 10-25 cm), which, in turn, turns the flooded area, shift the boundaries of wetlands and lowlands, increasing salinity in the estuaries, as well as the potential loss of human settlement;
changes in precipitation (rainfall increased in northern Europe and decreases in the south);
changes in the hydrological regime, the quantity and quality of water resources;
impact on ecosystems, agriculture and forest agriculture (mixing climatic zones to the north and the migration of species of wild fauna, the seasons change and productivity growth areas in the agriculture and forestry).
All of the factors can have a disastrous impact on human health, the economy and society as a whole. The increasing frequency of droughts and the subsequent crisis of agriculture increase the risk of hunger and social stability in some regions of the world. Difficulties in water supply in countries with warm climates encourage the spread of tropical and sub-tropical diseases. With the increasing trend of warming, weather conditions become more volatile and weather-related disasters - more devastating. The damage caused by natural disasters to the world’s economy increases.
Climate change in the historical period can sometimes be reconstructed on the basis of information about crop failures, floods, abandoned settlements and migration of peoples. Continuous series of air temperature measurements are available only for weather stations, located mostly in the northern hemisphere. They have been working for a period of one century. These data suggest that over the past 100 years the average temperature on earth has increased by nearly 0,5 ° C. This change happens not gradually but abruptly - sharp warming periods changed to stable phases (Sawer, 2015).
According to the observations of scientists, climate fluctuations occur constantly. There were periods of the cold weather and the warm periods. Some fluctuations last for decades, while others last for centuries. However, a feature of our time is the speed of climate change, its warming. It is a record for the last 25 years.
Global climate change is perhaps the most important environmental issue of our time. In recent years, this problem was actively discussed in many international meetings, because it is irreversible and threaten the security of millions of lives.
The most likely cause of global climate change is the greenhouse effect - a phenomenon in the Earth's atmosphere, when the energy of sunlight reflected from the Earth's surface cannot go back into space and delayed as molecules of different gases. These gases are called greenhouse gases. They are: water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and others. Due to the natural greenhouse effect on Earth's surface, temperature is maintained at a level suitable for life.
Global warming has a natural basis, but the speed of the process would have to recognize the role of anthropogenic factors. People increase their activity due to the greenhouse effect of greenhouse gas emissions. The main sources are industrial enterprises and transport, high-tilled soil. Among the greatest impact of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide is the most dangerous. It releases into the atmosphere by burning coal, oil, and gas. Agricultural practices account for about 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions. These sources include fertilizers, livestock, rice fields, manure, savanna burning, the burning of agricultural waste, plowing.
Worst forecasts predict an increase of the Earth's temperature by 8 ° C, slowing the Earth's rotation around its axis, the extinction of many plants and animal species. Raising the overall level of the world's oceans would flood major coastal areas and islands. Because of changes in the course of the Gulf Stream in Europe, the advent of the new Ice Age projected. Global warming will have direct implications for human health: strengthen cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, increase the number of psychological disorders, trauma, due to an increase in the intensity and duration of natural disturbances (floods, tornadoes, droughts, hurricanes, and so on). There will be a shortage of food and water. American research organization (Center for Global Development) created their map that reflects the projected impacts of climate change around the world. Four parameters are used: disasters, rising sea levels, the reduction of productivity in agriculture and overall risk rating. In terms of direct vulnerability to extreme weather, first places are occupied by China, India and Bangladesh. By raising the level of the ocean Djibouti, Greenland and Monaco are directly affected, but indirectly - Liberia, Myanmar and Guinea-Bissau. The loss of arable land affected the whole Africa, the Middle East, India and Latin America. Taking into account all of the common factors that most affected countries would be Somalia, Burundi and Myanmar, the less affected - Sweden, Norway and Finland.
An increase in temperature can cause such phenomena as sea-level rise, changes in local weather conditions that could negatively affect the socio-economic development of many countries. Global warming can cause unpredictable changes in the environment. The increase in the average temperature of the Earth over the past decade is defined in the range of 6 ° C to 2-2,5 ° C. It is believed that in the second half of the twentieth century, the temperature increased for every 10 years by 0,3 ° C (The Economist, 2015).
Under the influence of warming the ice of Antarctica, the Arctic and the high mountains will melt, which would raise the global sea level. Global warming will create problems not only for the residents of the coastal countries, but also can lead to huge changes in the climate of the planet. Increase in average temperature may affect agricultural production, crop changes and quality of crops, and this, in turn, will affect the livestock production. In the energy sector, hydropower is the most vulnerable. In addition, global warming may cause the acceleration of metabolism in microorganisms that would lead to the emergence of new epidemics among people, epizootic among animals, large blood-sucking insects and pests of forests would begin to breed, spreading the disease.
Thus, the main problem of temperature increase is violation of the ecological balance in the world as a whole, which affects a large scale in all kinds of fate in soil, water, air, flora and fauna and, of course, human. Global climate change in the world will not pass any country. Global warming can bring extremely complex problems. Therefore, an urgent need today is to develop a national strategy to prevent the consequences of global warming for every state and our planet.
References
Martelle, S. (2013). Climate change: While we fiddle, the world burns and floods and parches. Latimes. Retrieved 21 June 2015, from http://articles.latimes.com/2014/mar/26/news/la-ol-global-warming-neil-de-grasse-tyron-cosmos-england-zadie-smith-20140326
Sawer, P. (2015). Growing climate change threat to Britain's historic coastline. Telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 21 June 2015, from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/11655087/Growing-climate-change-threat-to-Britains-historic-coastline.html
The Economist. (2015). Is it global warming or just the weather?. Retrieved 21 June 2015, from http://www.economist.com/news/international/21650552-scientists-are-getting-more-confident-about-attributing-heatwaves-and-droughts-human?zid=313&ah=fe2aac0b11adef572d67aed9273b6e55
