With every year human kind gets closer and close to the ideal and advanced world pictured in si-fi films and books where humans are masters of life. This superiority is mainly caused by creation of smart and if to be precise intelligent software and robots. Numerous attempts to understand work of human brain evolved into attempts to create an artificial intelligence (AI) that is aimed at assisting people. Researchers and scientists` curiosity and tireless work in creating and testing AI altered lives of millions of people around the world starting new technological age and new revolution. If one looks at the velocity of changes that occur in the domain of robotic engineering one may observe that not all people are ready to experience and face technological advancement. However, from historical perspective one may draw a parallel between Industrial and Technological revolution in terms of their destructive but at the same time beneficial effect on the economy of the US and life as well as on labor market. However, economist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Erik Brynjolfsson disagrees that Technological revolution can be compared and treated like Industrial. Thus he states that modern alterations have a similar level of overall change compared to the previous experience with Industrial Revolution but this time everything will be faster – “The steam engine was a remarkable breakthrough and really set off the industrial revolution, but [] it doubled in power and efficiency approximately once every 70 years and quadrupled after 140 years” compared to the computer processor which “doubles in power every 18 months, 10 times greater every five years.” (Heath) With this in mind will people have enough time to adjust to such rapid alterations or it will lead to massive unemployment and economic collapse? With further analysis one may see that development, massive implementation and replacement human beings by AI will lead to high rates of unemployment. Moreover, it is important to illuminate all positive and negative sides of AI in order to better understand what AI has for us.
Fierce discussions of limitless possibilities of AI started as soon as the idea of its creation appeared in minds of scientists. Dartmouth College conference in 1956 was a turning point in Technological Revolution because it created basis for AI creation and development. (Kenneth) Great number of researchers was brought together by one single idea of turning into reality a concept that “human cognitive process can be simulated by computer.” (Kenneth) It was a shocking and unreal idea at that time but as the current situation shows there is nothing impossible in this world. Moreover, taking into consideration massive use of smart software and AI development one may see that idea of creating a smart machine that will have human intelligence is closer than ever. The only border that separates people from living in the world with smart robots is Turing test. As soon as AI passes it people will enter into a bright future or dystopian nightmare. Moreover, debates about its destructive power are held more and more often today. Thus, Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk worry that “AI-powered computers might one day become uncontrollable super-intelligent demons.” (McMillan) With this in mind is the situation with AI that threatening and horrible or people are simply afraid of the unknown?
Erik Brynjolfsson presents his vision of a future world where “computers entrench the power of a wealthy elite and push the majority into poverty. A world where the rising tide of technology doesn't lift all boats, but sucks under all but the biggest ships.” (Heath) It is hard to disagree that usage of AI will be mostly promoted by wealthy elite and stable conglomerates which will take them only forward leaving a huge gap with their competitors. In the same fashion advanced countries will be placed on unreachable heights thus leaving undeveloped countries in the economic calamity. Alterations in commerce and economy are inevitable because smart usage of AI will only enrich the most advanced and developed countries leaving countries of the third world not only far behind but also in total poverty. (Heath) New elite along and clear-cut ascendancy of certain companies will create new social classes and disruption. (Heath) Moreover, idea of total economic collapse and turnover is shared by another researcher. Thus a program manager for NASA, Mark Nall, points out that “For those who expect AI and robotics to significantly displace human employment, these displacements seem certain to lead to an increase in income inequality, a continued hollowing out of the middle class, and even riots, social unrest, and/or the creation of a permanent, unemployable “underclass.” (Smith and Anderson) With this in mind one sees that the effect of technological advancement reminds situation with Industrial Revolution where big companies which could buy steam engines benefited the most which lead to promotion of capitalistic relationships and huge social gaps. Furthermore, there is a great chance that AI will monopolize some enterprises erasing others as well as creating financially invincible new upper class. In either case, Nall states that human replacement by robotics and AI differs from farming machinery disruption which occurred decades earlier because “Due to their versatility and growing capabilities, not just a few economic sectors will be affected, but whole swaths will be [] The social consequence is that good-paying jobs will be increasingly scarce.” (Smith and Anderson)
As an illustration one may notice that with each year it gets harder and harder to find a job because employers prefer machines or smart software over people. The most vulnerable sector of labor is service sphere where people without certain specialty or particular skills could work. With this in mind it is easier for employer to buy a certain software or robotic machine which will do everything faster and without additional expenses and policies rather than hire a person who needs insurance, medical care and other things that AI simply does not need. For instance, Rethink Robotics' Baxter, a robotic humanoid torso which replaced human resources totally. (Heath) It sorts goods and does this task faster, better and cheaper. (Heath) Moreover, in case of injury or other force major this ‘employee’ can be easily replaced or fixed without spending additional money on paying insurance like in case with people. Furthermore, it does everything exactly the same way employer programs it which excludes human factor that is inevitably present in dealing with people. There are lots of advantages that employers see in AI and the most significant is that it is not a human being. Therefore, it is deprived from all human drawbacks. Significantly, that endless opportunity that AI promises attracts owners of huge enterprises more than abilities of a person whose IQ level is higher than average. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne from Oxford Martin School & Faculty of Philosophy point out that “47 percent of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning that associated occupations are potentially automatable over some unspecified number of years” which means that people with a degree and descent education are in danger too. (Heath) For example, the US law companies have been using AI for analyzing legal documentation for a several years because of its financial benefit compared to human resources. (Kenneth) Special smart software analyzes 1.5 million documents faster and more accurate compared to human force; moreover it does not need to be paid and it does not get tired. (Kenneth) Using this software company spends less than 100,000 dollars compared to 2,000,000 dollars it would have spent using human resources. (Kenneth) Moreover, The Economist digital editor, Tom Standage, states that AI and smart software can easily make some jobs like legal clerks obsolete which “will displace people into service roles, and the income gap between skilled workers whose jobs cannot be automated and everyone else will widen.” (Smith and Anderson)
It should be mentioned that not all researchers foresee gloom and doom in development of AI. A lot of them predict tight cooperation rather than competition on the labor market. For example, medical institutions like Bassett Medical Center in Cooperstown, N.Y., has installed in in 2010 AI-monitored cameras in order to track patients and staff movements. (Kenneth) This implementation of AI eased and improved work of medical staff due to system`s ability to signal when doctor forgets to wash hands after patient, also it scans patients` facial expressions to detect pain, in case of any. (Kenneth) It is obvious that in this case AI is a great assistant because it completes doctor`s job and duties, notices small details that can be accidentally omitted by doctor. This cooperation is beneficial for people because it increases level of medical care. By the same token excessive usage of AI will create new job positions replacing those taken by robots. This will shift people from serving sphere into managing. For instance, at the airport of Dusseldorf one can find a robotic valet which parks cars by lifting then and placing into “a kind of aerial parking bay.” (Metz) It safes time, space, money and what is more important it provides people with job. The airport management combines human and robotic resources creating a balance therefore skillfully using advanced technologies. It should be mentioned that “humans are needed to maintain and repair all those robotic forklifts.” (Metz) Moreover, increase in smart software and robotics will assist people in fulfilling routine tasks because with AI process of monotonous and routine work gets faster and more accurate living people with more time for themselves. In his report, J. P. Gownder, a vice president and principal analyst points out that it is obvious that AI will take some jobs from people on the permanent basis but “in reality, automation will spur the growth of many new jobs—including some entirely new job categories.” (Metz) Importance to realize is that AI and robotic workers require direct human assistance and care which will create new job positions. Remarkably that J. P. Gownder is not the only one that foresees more advantages in implementing AI than drawbacks. Thus vice president and chief Internet evangelist for Google, Vint Cerf, reminds that “Historically, technology has created more jobs than it destroys and there is no reason to think otherwise in this case.” (Smith and Anderson) With this in mind one sees that there will be some hardships in cooperating with AI at first but in general people will only benefit from it. Moreover, a professor of economics of George Mason University, Robin Hanson, suggests that in order to reduce and minimize possible unemployment in future people should change employment policy today. AI is not a greedy competitor that craves to take one`s job but a friendly assistant that eases life. (Kenneth)
Also there are suggestions that are aimed at altering economic system like “Expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, providing a guaranteed basic income, and encouraging corporate profit-sharing” (Karsten and West) People should learn how to cooperate with AI from school. Without particular adjustments in legal, economic and educational spheres people will not be able to benefit from advanced future. In order to be advanced one should be prepared for it as soon as possible.
All things considered, changes alter everything once and for all especially changes in development and implementation of artificial intelligence. Looking at the history of human kind one sees that invention of steam engine or electricity always frightens and stresses people because it is impossible to predict what the aftermath will be. The unknown is always scary. Moreover, Technical Revolution and its ‘steam engine’, AI, reminds the Industrial Revolution in terms of total destruction of some working positions while others totally new appeared. However, taking into consideration speed of AI evolvement people will not have enough time to adjust to new changes unless government will regulate and prepare people for it. While these preparations have not been done AI bit by bit takes some jobs in service sphere which may indicate a beginning of economic collapse and future unemployment.
References
Heath, Nick. "Why AI Could Destroy More Jobs Than It Creates, And How To Save Them - Techrepublic". TechRepublic. N.p., 2016. Web. 29 Apr. 2016.
Jost, Kenneth. “Artificial Intelligence.” CQ Researcher 22 Apr. 2010: 363-383
Karsten, Jack and Darrell West. "How Robots, Artificial Intelligence, And Machine Learning Will Affect Employment And Public Policy". The Brookings Institution. N.p., 2015. Web. 29 Apr. 2016.
McMillan, Robert. "AI Won’T End The World, But It Might Take Your Job". WIRED. N.p., 2016. Web. 29 Apr. 2016.
Metz, Cade. "Robots Will Steal Our Jobs, But They’Ll Give Us New Ones". WIRED. N.p., 2016. Web. 29 Apr. 2016.
Smith, Aaron and Janna Anderson. "AI, Robotics, And The Future Of Jobs". Pew Research Center: Internet, Science & Tech. N.p., 2014. Web. 29 Apr. 2016.
