Introduction
The area under study in this paper is the region of Greater Brisbane. The capital city of Brisbane is the third most populous city in Australia, and has recently launched a detailed Infrastructure Plan towards 2031 to improve the city and to plan for projections of increased future population and changes in the age demographic of Greater Brisbane. Data from the recent Australian Census is not yet publically available, so data in this paper is based on the latest available figures, which in some cases are derived from the previous census in 2011, and in other cases are government survey or estimate figures which are as late as 2014.
Part A Current Demographic Structure
Greater Brisbane is comprised of an area of 1,582,593.1 hectares and, as of 2014 is home to a population of 2.275 million people, with an almost equal balance of males and females.
Over the last five years, since 2011, birth and death rates have remained relatively stable with standardized death rate of 5.7 per 1000 head of population. Approximately one third of the region’s population is foreign born and the median age of the population is 35.1 years. Population density is approximately 143.7.1 persons per square kilometer and has risen steadily in the last five years from 133.2 persons per square kilometer in 2010. Internal migration has also increased from a negative migration figure in 2010 of 449 persons to a positive migration of 1991 in 2014.
It boasts a working population of 1.010 million, almost 80% of whom use their own motor vehicle or motor bike to travel to work, while only 11% used public transport. The remaining 10% used bicycles, taxis or walked to work.
The following population pyramid shows the ages of individual cohorts by sex and age of Greater Brisbane population in 2014. As can be seen from the graph, Brisbane’s population is ageing and although the population is increasing, the rate of growth is slowing, as would be expected from a mature population. The numbers of people entering their child-bearing years is fewer than those who are currently raising children, so it would be expected that the birth rate will fall in the future. However, this will probably be offset by a decrease in the death rate, due to the increased number of people who will be entering their retirement years, and an increase in local and foreign immigration.
Part B Forecast of Future Populations
The size of future populations of Brisbane will depend largely on birth and death rates and net migration. Although uncertainty exists, demographers use past and current populations to make reasonable assumptions on which to model future populations, based on historical trends and experience. Under three of the projected scenarios developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, births will continue to exceed deaths during the period to 2031, resulting in a natural increase. However in Series A and B of the projections, population will increase naturally either steadily (Series A) or slowly (Series B), whereas in Series C there will be a decline in population but it will still remain positive .
It is predicted that the age structure of Greater Brisbane will change significantly in the next thirty years. An indicator of this change is the median population age (the point at which the oldest and youngest halves of the population are evenly distributed) which is predicted to rise from 35.1 years today, to approximately 40 years in 2031. It is also projected that a large increase in the population aged over 65 years will occur, as the baby boomers reach retirement age. This means that a larger proportion of the population will be requiring aged care services and infrastructure. Also significant is the projected increase, in the next 25 years, in the numbers of people aged 19 years or younger. This will have a wide range of impacts on education and transport infrastructure, childcare availability, community services and social infrastructure.
In 2006, the number of households with children between 0 and 19 years comprised 36.5% of all households in the Greater Brisbane area. By 2011, this figure had risen to 48.5% , an increase of 12%, which can be compared to the increase in household with children in the period from 2001 to 2006 of 7.3% .
As households which comprise both adults and children grow older, their needs change. When many families in an area are in a similar stage in their lifecycles, it impacts on the need for the provision of certain local and community services over others. This phenomenon typically occurs where new suburbs are opened up, usually on the outskirts of the city area, and young families purchase or build homes in that particular area. Households with young children require different facilities and services than households in older, more established suburbs, where the majority of the population is older. By understanding where each suburb is in its evolution of population, planners are able to make evidenced-based projections about the demand for services, both currently and into the future
As Brisbane’s population ages, older age groups will embody a much larger proportion of the total population. In 2006, 12% of the population of Greater Brisbane was aged 65 or over. In 2014 this had increased to 13.3% and is projected to increase to 20% by the year 2013 . Table 1 illustrates the changes that have occurred in Queensland’s population since 2006 and the projected changes modelled by the ABS in their three predictive series of low, medium and high population increase scenarios. It can be implied from the table that the projected population of Queensland will almost double by 2013, and the bulk of this increase will occur mostly in South-East Queensland in the area of Greater Brisbane.
About 32% of the projected population increase in Brisbane in the next 25 years will be in the age groups of 65 years and above. This is partly a result of the “baby boomer” post-war generation moving towards retirement age . The challenges currently facing Brisbane planners are rapid population growth, urban sprawl and shortages of housing .
Part C Planning Implications
The increase in housing availability which will be required in the future, given the predictions in Part B of increases in households with children and increases in the numbers of retired persons, has important planning implications for state and local governments. In the process of providing for the future population’s housing needs, additional factors need to be addressed such as provisions for increased stormwater drainage, provision of green space, waste management , increase and maintenance of roads, libraries, community centres, health facilities, transport and a plethora of other services. McLaughlin maintains that much of the future housing development in Brisbane will be in the form of infill development and redevelopment close to the CBD, where older inner city suburbs will be revitalized, and suburbs closer to the city will be redeveloped.
The Brisbane City Council, in its infrastructure plan has defined a number of parameters which they use to develop services into the future. These include high quality, accessible services located within a 15 minute vehicle trip, or a 30 minute walk or ride on public transport; a commitment to minimising negative impacts on the environment and to maintaining and improving environmental quality and amenity ; ensuring that additional infrastructure positively contributes to the local economy; ensuring that businesses are supported by appropriate health, education and community facilities and providing facilities which meet diverse community needs, now and into the future .
It is expected that major growth in employment will occur in the years between 2011 and 2031 in the CBD and surrounding suburbs which form the city’s hub. An expected increase of approximately 30% of employees means an equivalent increase in motor vehicle usage in the CBD. Economic expansion is predicted to create an additional 64,400 jobs in inner Brisbane in this same period which will further impact on public transport. The transport industry is crucial to the economic wellbeing and the quality of life of residents within Brisbane.
Given that Australia has committed to a marked reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050, Council must be proactive in its efforts to improve air quality. In order to achieve this they must reduce the number of car parking spaces available in the CBD, allow fewer car parking spaces in inner city building approvals, and rapidly increase high-frequency public transport services, particularly for short domestic runs from the CBD to near-city suburbs. Fewer dollars should be spent on improving roadworks and expressways to access the CBD and more money should be spent on improving the rail network, and the system of buses and ferries which service the CBD. One huge advantage that Brisbane possesses is its wide, navigable river which was only first fully utilised for transport status during Expo ’88. Although the current City Cats (catamarans) ply the river on a daily basis, together with the old fashioned ferries which cross the river at no cost to their passengers, more collection and departure points need to be developed to make maximum use of this form of public transport.
The cost of fares for all forms of transport should be significantly reduced to encourage higher consumer use, and although the BCC has recently reduced its fare structure, more severe measures need to be undertaken to “force” the users of the CBD to utilise public transport rather than their motor vehicles. Although patronage of Brisbane’s transport has risen by 60% in the period between 2003 and 2010, full utilisation of these services is not being undertaken by Brisbane’s public.
Brisbane Domestic Airport, together with the Brisbane International Airport, also is a major contributor to efficient transport options within Greater Brisbane .
Conclusion
Despite the numerous challenges to the provision of sustainable infrastructure to Greater Brisbane due to predicted population increase, its council’s commitment to environmental stability and improvement, and the sustainability of the casual and relaxed lifestyle which the residents of Brisbane currently enjoy, is a result of good planning, from economic, social and environmental perspectives.
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