Introduction
The term “Brexit” has been highly popularized across the world today, but it has its root in the result of the referendum on June 23, 2016, for UK's exit from the EU. Brexit is simply a short-form for “British exit” (Mirror, 2016). EU members perceive Brexit as calamitous and in fact one of the most unfortunate events that have occurred throughout the lifetime of the Union. Britain became a member of the EU (formally known as the European Economic Community, ECC) on January 1, 1973, 12 years from the time it applied to join the community, and resultantly, it has spent 43 years in the Union (The Guardian, 2016). Clearly, after 43 years of its EU membership, the UK intends to extricate from the Union. An obvious question is: why would the UK want to leave EU? Several reasons have been cited by the UK including the influence of the European Court of Human Rights in the UK which make deporting foreign criminals difficult, the migration muddle problem caused by EU freedom of movement for labor, and difficulty in trading with countries outside the EU trading bloc such as China (Boyle, 2015).
Extrication from the EU can only be achieved through the means provided in the EU constitution. Thus, a referendum by the British does not guarantee UK’s exit from the union, however, they can actually achieve the desired extrication through Article 50 (Gripper et al. 2016; Ollerenshaw, 2016; Ruparel, 2016; Wilkinson & Midgley, 2016). Article 50 came into being in December 2009; it was simply the Lisbon Treaty which was thitherto signed into law. The treaty was agreed upon by heads of governments and heads of states of the member countries. The essence of the law is to make the Union more democratic, transparent and efficient and today, it provides a means by which a member nation can actually extricate itself.
However, the major problem with the Article 50 is that it is very vague. The vagueness in this context implies that some of the contents of the Article are not explicit and therefore may not favor the country that wishes to extricate itself (Lisbon-treaty.org, 2013; Wikinson & Midgley, 2016). Invocation of the Article 50 has a lot of connotations, and the UK is not ignorant of that. The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, is responsible for revealing when the UK would trigger the Article, and she had already revealed at the party (Tory Party Conference) that she would trigger the Article 50 at most at the end of March 2017. A careful look at Article 50, its relevance and how it can help the UK to achieve Brexit is necessary in this study.
UK Government Action on Article 50
Article 50 should not be triggered in haste because it calls for a lot of considerations. Several sources agree with the fact that it is the Prime Minister that decides when the Article would be triggered (Rankin et al. 2016; Wikinson & Midgley, 2016). However, the British High Court has ruled that the Prime Minister does not hold power to initiate the Brexit process and that commencement of the process would rely on the votes of the parliament members (Gripper et al. 2016; Wilkinson, 2016). Irrespective of whoever is responsible for invoking the Article, it appears that Article 50 might be triggered on March 2017.
The process is not as so straightforward as most people think. The negotiation would be lengthy, and obstacles in the Brexit process would not be settled in the High Court. As a matter of fact, the real process or perhaps obstacles would come after the court process. The UK would only decide when to trigger the Article, and once it is triggered, agreement between EU and UK will determine how long the remaining process would occur (Gripper et al. 2016; Ollerenshaw, 2016; Wikinson & Midgley, 2016)
It is expected that once the Article is triggered, a two-year process for the UK extrication would begin. This two-year procedure would involve talks between the EU officials and the UK as per the relationship between the two parties after the extrication. The process is designed in such a way as to favor the EU over any country that wants to extricate. The EU would draft out the withdrawal agreement solely without the consent of any country that wants to extricate, in this case, the UK. In other words, some of the agreements may not be favorable to the UK, but the UK has to abide and satisfy every iota of the agreement before it can be allowed to leave the union (Gripper et al. 2016; Lawyers for Britain, 2016; Miller & Lang, 2016). Some of the agreements would include the access the UK would have to the single market as well as trade arrangement and also what will happen to citizens of EU living in the UK (Gripper et al. 2016).
While some sources claim that the UK would have successfully left the EU barely 2 years after it triggers the Article 50, some other experts argue that the process will take quite longer than that. As a matter of fact, a leading EU Professor of Law Michael Dougan who had studied EU laws and processes for quite a greater part of his life opines that this process could take roughly 10 years. This possibility in the extension of the time-frame can be understood by viewing the UK extradition as a divorce process. The 2 years stipulated by the treaty indicates the time you have to make the divorce statement, however, the agreement for the future relationship is a completely different thing and would involve a different framework. Thus, if the UK would spend more than 2 years, perhaps 10 years, it would represent 10 years of being stripped off from the EU highest order of decision making while still in the union (Ollerenshaw, 2016).
An important part of the negotiation process is deciding on which EU laws to pick over others. This would require the UK going through the 80,000 pages laws that bind the EU and the UK in order to decide the ones to keep. It is necessary that the UK adopt some of the EU laws on Brexit primarily because some aspects of the laws are shared with non-EU countries. As a matter of fact, this represents the period of time the UK would reform new policies that would bind its foreign operations in the EU. The period of time is part of the two or ten years of negotiation with the EU (Miller & Lang, 2016; Peter, 2016)
During the negotiation process, the UK would continue normal operations as if it is still in the Union and UK ministers will also participate in EU businesses but not with the inclusion of internal EU discussions especially as it relates to their withdrawal (The Week, 2016). Barrett (2016) argued that the Article 50 is not a simple case of negotiation of the UK and its neighboring states. It primarily involves the UK at one side and every other EU member state at the other side. As a result, in the EU side, one can expect trade-offs, muddled promises, hard bargaining and so forth. EU member states would apparently go after their sole interests and not in any way the interest of the UK. Thus, it can be expected that the states would disallow approval of any agreement unless such an agreement would favor them. In other words, for EU members, it is a win-win game. The chances on the UK side present a very bleak and uncertain occurrence.
Circumstances Surrounding Article 50 – Loopholes and Otherwise
Of course, an obvious limitation of the Article 50 is that it is very vague, but besides its vagueness, loopholes can be observed in the law. Edwards (2016) argued that one of these loopholes is that the Article does not prevent Britain from reentering into EU whenever it wants. The last part of the Article clearly read that if a state that withdrew from the Union asks to rejoin, it shall be subject to the procedure in Article 49. Clearly, Article 49 provides guidelines for a new member to join the union. This simply implies that the UK can still rejoin the union anytime it wants as a new member by following the processes described for a new member.
Besides, the UK can still decide to change its mind and simply stop the withdrawal process even after triggering the Article. On changing its mind, the UK would be reinstated and would remain a member of the Union as though it did not trigger the Article 50. This holds provided that final agreement has not been reached on the agreement for UK’s exit from Britain. However, once the final decision for the withdrawal agreement has been made, there is no going back on it (Edward, 2016; Wikinson & Midgley, 2016).
It may be hard to accept that Brexit could never be achieved seeing the length of time that may be involved and what the UK stands to risk in order to make it happen (Edward, 2016). Uncertainty is one common characterization that could describe the UK and the EU when the Article is set rolling. Barrett (2016) wrote that uncertainty might becloud the UK and the EU the moment they start the process of the Article 50. This would have an undesirable influence on the financial market, and investment may be gravely affected. Specifically, the value of the pound would be put to shock. The UK would clearly come under the mercy of its sister countries and may be anything but independent even after Brexit.
Conclusion
The UK vote to exit the EU in the referendum of June 23, 2016, has steamed intense public opinion. The paper gathered that this extrication can only be achieved with the Article 50. The UK is set to trigger the Article 50 by the ending of March 2017. However, triggering the Article would birth an uncertain time for both the UK and the EU especially as it relates to their economies. The UK stands a chance of risking the fall in the value of the pound and it may have to accept every condition EU member states throws at it if it is truly determined to leave the Union. Some experts argue that the exit negotiation process may last for 2 years whereas some others opine that it might take 10 years. There is every possibility that the UK would change its mind especially with the odds that might be posed during the negotiation period.
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