Introduction
Since the end of the Great Wars, the US hegemony has remained superior than other countries and it was clear no one would be able to challenge their dominance in the fields of politics and the economy. Many countries often seek the advice of the US in terms of their political and economic reforms and seek aid to ensure their continuous growth. When there are major conflicts, the US is considered by many countries to act immediately due to its role as a world police. Considering its role in the international arena, many believed that the US would remain as the world’s leader and remain uncontested in this position. However, in recent years, the People’s Republic of China has been making headlines due to its progressive economy and growing political influence.
Considering that experts are divided over the Chinese threat, this paper aims to discuss as to how China can be considered a threat or a country that is only keeping up with the nature of the international arena. Each argument would be highlighted and analyzed from a scholarly journals and reports depicting the scenarios as to why China is perceived a threat or a country only aiming to improve itself for its people. This paper argues that: while China still has a lot of areas to improve upon for the sake of its political and economic stability and does not actively push for an active and assertive stance in the international arena; it should be considered a country that must be taken seriously given its growing political, military and economic capability that rivals the Western world. This researcher found this topic interesting and selected it for this paper because there are evidences saying that China is giving the US problems retaining its dominance in various parts of the globe.
Brief Background: China’s Political and Economic Reforms
China is considered one of the oldest civilizations in the world and has outpaced its fellow civilizations in the ancient times in terms of the arts, sciences and politics. The country thrived in trade and commerce, introducing its products through trade with other countries. However, in the 19th and 20th centuries, the country was ravaged consistently with civil unrest, famine, military coups, and foreign occupation that has left the country almost devastated and bare of its heritage and riches . After the Second World War, the Communist Party of China under Mao Zedong took over China and instigated several changes to its political and economic system that triggered its sow growth as a developing power in Asia. Keping (2008) stated that the major changes to the country’s political framework occurred after the Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976. The state government realized that utilizing a monistic government under the leadership of the Communist Party has disabled the state government in looking at social and economic affairs. The monistic government triggered low administrative efficiency and the public were disabled from practicing their rights and autonomy. As a result of the Cultural Revolution, the Communist Party made efforts in separating the party from the state and give way to the creation of an independent body for governance. This decision was introduced in the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1978. Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping remarked that this political reform would usher deeper reforms for the entire Chinese political system, which includes regional decentralization and introduction of civil organizations to the country .
When it comes to the economic growth and reform, the Communist Party started to introduce economic reforms in the 1950s based from the designs of the Soviet Union’s economic system. According to Chow (2004), the state government introduced the first Five-Year Plan that would span from 1953 to 1957 and indicate how economic growth would be developed. Under Premier Zhou Enlai, he introduced China’s modernization plan for four major industries – industry, science and technology, agriculture and defense – which he believes would assist in economic development for the country. However, the country had to stop its economic reform program due to the onset of the Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976. The Chinese people were not very happy with the Cultural Revolution, because it had triggered discontent from the Chinese public regarding the Chinese Communist Party and the impact of the revolution to their daily lives. Many Chinese were killed throughout the Revolution and revealed the flaws of a planning system used in the 1950s to reshape China’s economic system. It was very difficult to manage the country with the planning system as it is uncertain as to which economic leadership should handle a specific economic issue. China also realized that a market-oriented economy would be more beneficial to the country as countries like Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore reported economic successes that is at par with the Western countries. The Chinese people also wanted a market-oriented economic system for the country because it would allow the public to become involved in introducing goods and services that is good for the people. Previously, the public had to make do with limited consumer goods and they had to use personal connections to know which products are considered “essential” and state-approved .
With the political and economic reforms that it has instigated from the 1970s, China – according to Morrison (2015) and Armijo (2007)- recorded consistent 10% annual real GDP per year, which allowed the country to double the size of its economy . Although there had been cases where economic decline (such as in 2008) caused significant economic decline even in China, the Chinese government immediately launched several stimulus programs to ensure the economy remains strong and stable. The country’s GDP in nominal dollars was estimated to amount to almost $10.4 trillion in 2014, 60% of the US economy itself. The United Nations indicated that China has now become the world’s largest manufacturer and its foreign direct investments have also grown in recent years with 445,244 foreign-invested enterprises currently registered in the country. These foreign-invested enterprises has given 55.2 million workers jobs and regulates China’s foreign trade levels as they generate 58% to 59% of China’s overall exports and imports .
China should not be considered a threat
Although China has reported huge strides in its political and economic capability, experts indicated that this should not be seen as a reason for the world to see China as a threat to the status quo. According to Ateba (2002), China is actually challenged in a political level that prevents it from becoming a world power. After the fall of the Soviet Union, one of China’s largest partners, the US has been a threat to China’s national security as the country has been deploying military forces and establishing military alliances that would allow it to remove the possibility of being contained by the Western powers. Both the US and Japan see China as a threat for both its security alliance and in the stability of the region. The US has also worked into Westernizing China in order to destabilize the country’s ideologies and the Communist Party and they even support Taiwanese independence to prevent China from taking an active role in the region. China sees this attempt of the US as a threat to its culture and ideology, triggering the growth of nationalism in the country. Nationalism, in this regard, should be seen as a means by the Chinese people to protect itself from the threat of the larger countries .
China’s military power is also far from being capable of competing against the US’ overall military capability. According to Eland (2003), China’s military expenditure is still limited due to the limits of the country’s central government in collecting revenues and budget deficits. The country cannot easily launch modernization efforts for its military because if it grows larger, it would disable the growth of its gross domestic product. The Chinese military still utilizes a guerilla type warfare style that disables it from being a clear power in the seas and air. China would have to spend more than its current defense funding to modernize its entire system and retrain its people in partaking in maritime and aerial warfare. The Chinese defense industry is also not very efficient given that it is state owned. The country has also yet to sort out its capability in developing modern weaponry. China had to purchase modern weapons from Russia, reflecting the weakness of the Chinese defense capability .
China cannot be seen as a threat because it has actually used its political presence in the international community by assisting fellow countries and resolving its issues. In dispute settlements, Fravel (2002) indicated that the country is open to the use of diplomacy to sort out its territorial disputes as the use of force will trigger instability throughout the country. China’s legitimacy is also challenged if they could not find a compromise with these countries. From the 1960s to the 1990s, the country was able to resolve 15 different disputes such as the dispute with Tibet, and border disputes with Laos and Vietnam . The country – as stated by Fullilove (2011) – has also been working on improving international initiatives such as climate change policies and conflict resolution. China has regularly sent out diplomats to UN discussions and actively take part in the negotiations. Financial assistance is also done by the country in order to assist international operations in disputing countries. Recently, the country has actively taken part against the fight on terrorism alongside the US and Russia .
In an economic level, Hou (2013) indicated that China is content with the economic global governance as it could assist the Chinese government to develop further economic reform. This is clearly seen in China’s active efforts to accede to the World Trade Organization. Although there are several criticisms that China could make regarding the governance of multilateral institutions, China recognizes that the current system is representing the interests of member countries. While it may be true that China also wants to make the best of what their arrangement is with the international community, they wish to become involved with economic governance not because they wish to be seen as an economic power, but introduce reform that would benefit the interests of emerging and developing powers. Chinese officials themselves stress that they are an evolutionary power rather than a revolutionary power, aiming to assist reform . China has also opened itself to the rest of the world as envisioned in the 1970 economic reforms imposed in the country as it would assist in the country’s economic growth and give more jobs to the people. Hickey (2005) indicated that China has been working round the clock to strengthen its economic partnerships with various countries like Japan, Taiwan, the Middle East and Africa to improve economic partnerships. As a result of these bilateral agreements on economic cooperation, it opened investments and employment for many Chinese citizens .
Finally, China also has several issues that it has to contend in a domestic level that would prevent it from focusing on being a global power that can rival and challenge the US. According to Armijo (2007) and Adnan (2014), the country has to consider issues such as environmental issues that affects many industries throughout the country. Currently, China is considered one of the world’s major greenhouse gas sources due to its constant use of coal for energy production. Since the country currently has low energy imports, the country is focusing most of its foreign policy towards gaining resource leases and supply contracts to sustain their energy demand . China is also working on means to creating an economic measure that would allow them to establish sustainable development and environment protection in the country given the pollution issues throughout the country . The country, according to Lawrence and Martin (2013), also has problems when it comes to the maintenance of the rule of law given the perception of the Chinese Communist Party regarding the law. The Party is known to make investigations regarding crimes, but it would choose whether or not the accused should be given a heavy punishment or allowed to be free. There have been instances that the judicial and law enforcement agencies could not look into the crimes of Party members even if there are evidences supporting accusations. Corruption is also a problem in China and it is reported that officials are regularly bribed for permits, opportunities and even employment. It has been reported that there are stolen funds in China’s major banks amounting to $120 billion. When Xi Jinping was elected in 2012, he admit that corruption is indeed a problem in the Party and promised to work on stopping its continuous onset within the country .
China should be considered as a threat
On the other hand; however, many countries are now considering China as a major threat to the stability of the international community. In a political extent, Harden (2014) and stated that China has been pushing for a more active China in the international arena. According to Foreign Minister Wang Yi, “China will be more active in playing the role of a responsible, big country” as it works on protecting its national interests and make international order “just and reasonable.” Many experts consider this action as a threat to the Western hegemony as China is now asserting its national interests in areas like the South China Sea dispute and the use of its veto power in the United Nations Security Council regarding North Korea. In the South China Sea dispute, China has stressed that the entire area is in the core interests of the country and its claims in the area overlaps those of other claimant countries such as Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and the Philippines.
For the US, freedom of navigation in the area must be retained and that the “nations of the region should work collaboratively and diplomatically to resolve disputes without coercion, without intimidation, without threats, and without the use of force .” However, China showed that will do everything to ensure that its territorial integrity and sovereignty is protected and according to Ott (2006), China is also doing this to assert its influence in the East and replace the US as the country the Asian countries to seek protection and assistance. Since Japan is now out of the picture due to its revised constitution, China can now assert its claims without contention. China’s actions in the Asian region can be compared to the US’ Monroe Doctrine, closing the region to any foreign influence and conform to only Asian ideologies and gain support from fellow Asian countries. Asian countries and the US did not like this perception of China and stressed that this stance of China is a clear threat to the region’s stability .
China’s reluctance to support international action against its allies is also perceived as a threat to the international community’s attempts in restoring international peace and protecting international security. Bajoria and Xu indicated that China has been reluctant to join international efforts in sanctioning countries such as Iran and North Korea. In the case of North Korea, China is considered its largest supporter and sustains the North Korean people with its food and aid. The international community sees North Korea as a huge international threat given its continuous development of nuclear weapons despite the sanctions imposed in the country and the existing laws against nuclear power. China has used its veto power against the imposition of sanctions in the Security Council, hindering international intervention in the region . The same issue is seen in Iran according to Harold and Nader (2012) as Iran has been subjected to various sanctions due to its nuclear capability and China has been reluctant to support any action against the country due to its partnership with Iran. China also sees Iran as its gateway to the Middle East and if they acted against Iran, they will lose this access .
In an economic extent, experts indicated that China will definitely replace the US as the world’s largest economic power if its development continues to grow at a staggering pace. According to Elwell, Labonte and Morrison (2007), analysts indicated that China’s economic rise is a sign that the US is now on its economic decline. This fear is justified by many with the growth of US imports from China, which then influences the capacity of the American manufacturing industry. China also offers cheaper labor that many Western countries would see as a threat because many companies would then move to China. This move would then cause US companies to call bankruptcy and affect US wages. If China moves into production of advanced products, it has the capacity to affect US domestic firms known to produce advance products. Analysts have also indicated that China has been using unfair economic policies that is harmful for its trading partners, including the United States. With these policies, China shows that it does not trade fairly with other countries and ensure that China’s currency and products are not affected by foreign products. China has also pushed for the development of industries they believe is important for national development, and as a result, it disables foreign countries in competing in these industries. China’s continuous economic growth is also seen as a threat because it would cause China’s natural resource demand to grow significantly, disabling other countries in acquiring these supplies. There are even industries forced to call for bankruptcy because of the lack of policies that would protect intellectual property. Piracy is rampant in the country and it has triggered problems for IPR-related industries in growing worldwide since pirated products are exported overseas from China .
Conclusion
In every major event in history that happens in the world, China is definitely included in one way or the other. The country has been a part of the history of many countries and if one looks at its history, China’s history showcases the strength of the country despite the adversity that challenged its development. In recent years, it is becoming clear that China is reemerging in the international arena and showing just why the country has stood strong for the past couple of years. On the one hand, it may be perceived that its actions is brought by the necessity to protect itself from the threats it receives from the West and they do not have an active desire to take over in a political and economic perspective. However, the international community has enough reasons to stress that China’s sudden political and economic growth is a sign for concern because if China continues to persist its intent in forcing its influence, it will lead to instability worldwide. Regardless of whether or not it should be considered as a threat, China’s voice should not be disregarded as they can assist in the development of the international community as a whole in their own way.
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