INTRODUCTION
Sports have become very competitive in today’s world. Over the weekends, most of the world comes to a standstill as fans throng stadiums, popular joints and others on their home couches to catch a glimpse of their favorite teams. American football is a very popular sport in the United States. The national football league was ranked as the most popular league in the united states, this was the 30th time in a row the league has got this special recognition (Rose, 2014). Playing at home has always been believed to give the host team against their visiting teams. Home teams even though might loose at home, the level of competitiveness tremendously improve more than when they are playing away from home (Moskowitz & Wertheim, 2012). This is a hypothesis that home teams always have an advantage over visiting teams. This paper tries to approve or disapprove this hypothesis through statistical analysis of recent performances of chosen teams in the NFL.
Courtesy of Dubner J.S., (2014)
This table shows that in most leagues, even though not 100%, teams, usually, win more than 50 % of their home games.
Objective
The objective of this paper is to perform a retest of the hypothesis of home field analysis and prove or disapprove it.
Organization of the NFL
The league was founded in the 1920 and named the American Professional Football Conference. It was renamed National Football League in 1922. The league has thirty-two teams which are divided into two conferences; the National Football Conference (NFC) and the American Football Conference (AFC). The individual conferences hold round robin games and the four division winners and two wildcard teams compete in an NFL playoff. This is a knockout tournament leading to Super Bowl final. The final is played between the champions of the American football league and the National Football Conference. In the various conferences, each team plays against each other in the home and away fixtures (NFL, 2014).
Home advantage theory
There are several assumptions that have supported the hypothesis that the home teams have an advantage over the visiting teams. Analysts, fans, neutrals and journalists have agreed unanimously that the home team gets a competitive edge against their visiting opponents. The advantage is usually due to the crowd support (popularly known as the 12th man), the comfort of coming from one's house into the game and finally the familiarity of playing in the home field where the players practice (Dubner, 2014). The referees though partial and non-partisan are human beings. They at times subconsciously give the home team an advantage over their opponents due to the pressure offered by the obviously partisan home crowd. After all, they are human, and they get carried away by the emotions of the home crowd during the match hence succumbing to their biased demands (Moskowitz & Wertheim, 2012).
The statistical analysis of home records between 2002 and 2012
For this assignment, I will choose to analyze the Eastern division of the American Football Conference. The eastern conference consists of four teams; The Buffalo Bills, the Miami Dolphins, the New England Patriots and The NY Jets.
Courtesy of ESPN: infographic Home field advantage in the NFL
The New England Patriots has the most home wins. They have won over 83% of their games at home. They have won 67 games at home compared to 56 games on the road. The difference of 12 games in this statistic clearly approves the hypothesis that, a home team, usually, possesses an advantage over their visiting opponents. The Miami dolphins during the same period had 38 home wins and 32 away wins. This means they had six more wins at home than away. Again this confirms that the difference could be due to the home advantage theory. The NY jets, on the other hand, had 46 home wins and 34 wins on the road. This trend is very similar to the other teams with the jets recording twelve more wins at home than on the road. Finally, the Buffalo Bills had 39 home wins and 26 away wins. This is 13 more wins at home than away.
Analysis of the 2012/ 2013 Season home records
Courtesy of ESPN Official Website 2014
In the 2012/2013 season, the New England won the eastern division of the American Football Conference. They played a total of eight home matches and won all of them. This statistic strongly supports the theory of home advantage. They had a 100% record at home. A comparison to the away record proves that they did exceptionally well at home. On the road, they recorded four wins, and four loses giving a 50% win record.
The NY jets followed closely as the first runners up in that season. They managed six wins and two losses in their home stadium. This translates to winning 75% of their home games. On the road, they managed only two wins out of the eight games. This translates to only 25% wins on the road. This fact clearly approves the theory of the home team advantage.
The Miami became a distant third. On their home turf, they won four matches and lost four matches. This was a fifty- fifty case. Coincidently they had a similar record on the road; they won four and lost four. This case neither approves nor disapproves the theory of home advantages.
Lastly, the Buffalo Bills, who were last in the group bad a more impressive record at home than on the road. They had four wins, and four loses in their home stadium. This translates to 50% win rate at home. Their away record was dismal. They had only two wins loosing the other six games. Their win rate on the road was 25%. They had a better home record than their away record. This statistic also improves the theory that teams do better at home due to the home advantage.
In the eastern division as a whole, the teams recorded 68.75 % win rate for home games. The win rate on the road was at 37.5 %. This fact of the last season approves the thesis that a home team gets an advantage over their visiting counterparts.
Special mention
The Baltimore Ravens are a team with the best home record in the NFL in the recent past. Over the past decade, they have 73% win rate at home compared to 43.9% on the road. Their stadium; the M & T Bank stadium is a tough place for the opponents. They posses the biggest differential record for hoe and road wins percentage (Garber, 2012). The difference, I believe the difference is because of the home advantage they have when playing in their own turf.
On the other side of the coin, the Philadelphia eagles have the worst home record over a decade. They are the only team to record a win rate below 50%. They have recorded only 48.1 % win rate in the league (Gagnon, 2014). However, their away record is much worse meaning they still enjoy the home advantage.
Conclusion
An analysis of these records clearly approves the hypothesis that states; teams in the NFL playing at home have an advantage over their competitors. Teams playing at home undoubtedly get a competitive edge. The familiarity of the stadium, the backing by the home fans and the subconscious impartiality of match officials clearly turns the match in their favor. This analysis has clearly approved that teams get special advantages at home. The advantage does not guarantee wins at home. I believe that good teams are good at home and the same is true for bad teams, the reality is that good teams play better at home and bad teams put an extra effort in their home games and sometimes they get good results.
References
Rose B. (2014) Sports illustrated; NFL ranked as the most popular sport for the 30th consecutive year.
[Accessed at] http://www.si.com/nfl/audibles/2014/04/14/nfl-ranked-as-most-popular-american-sportfor-30th-consecutive-year [On 2nd October, 2014]
Gagnon B., (2014) Bloguin; which NFL teams have the best/ worst home-field advantage? [Accessed at]
http://bloguin.com/thisgivensunday/2014-articles/which-nfl-teams-have-the-bestworst-home-field-advantage.html [On 2nd October, 2014]
Moskowitz J.T., Wertheim J.L., (2012) Score casting; the hidden influences behind how sports are played
And games are won. Three Rivers Press; Reprint Edition
Dubner J.S., (2014) NFL.com; standing behind the home team [Accessed at]
http://www.nfl.com/features/freakonomics/episode-7 [On 2nd October, 2014]
National Football League official website [Accessed at] http://www.nfl.com [On 2nd October, 2014]
ESPN.com (2014) Info graphic: Home-field advantage in the NFL [Accessed at]
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/year/2013 [On 2nd October, 2014]
Garber G., 2012 toughest venues, Ravens get statistically unrivalled home advantage at No. 1 M & T
Bank Stadium. [Accessed at] http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8480725/nfl-hot-read-best-home-field-advantage-no-1 [On 2nd October, 2014]
