Political Science
A government is a form of leadership system that allows a country to have a unified form of power. Throughout the ancient times, the human civilization has been establishing governments or caste system. Over the years, the political system has been developed from hereditary to electoral. It is much known to everyone that dynasties long ago select their successor of the throne through bloodline. In the modern political system, serving the public would be of high honor. One candidate shall possess the compassion, knowledge and the integrity in serving the public. It is evident that there are certain qualifications before anybody can apply for a position in public service. Moreover, the track record of a certain personality would also give a long lasting impression to voters.
The gubernatorial race for Texas will be the highlight of the discussion. One candidate named Jane “Bitzi” Johnson Miller. Jane is the granddaughter of a previous governor named John Miller a.k.a Big Daddy. Big Daddy served Texas from year 1954 to 1958 and was part of the conservative Republican Party. Jane is a divorcee with two lovely children. Both of her child lives with her. Jane started a software company in relation to her course as well as with her Master’s Degree in Software Engineering. The company owned by her started in the year 1993. Later on she has decided to sell her company to Dell for about $2.5 million. This was in 2010. As of now, Bitzi is doing business through investments which makes her popular in the state. Bitzi is one of the gubernatorial candidates with a slogan of changing the lives of the Texas minority as well as to reclaim the name of her grandfather.
As the problem of poverty, low employment rate and economic disability arises, the need for a competent leader must be addressed. Bitzi as a software engineer as well as a world renowned businesswoman could take the lead. Her knowledge with the current business trend and her critical thinking skills as an engineer is just a perfect fit for the gubernatorial seat. It is a weak argument that Bitzi would do great as a granddaughter of a previous governor. Rather Bitzi is a strong competitor for this upcoming election because her grandfather has already trained her on what to do in public service. Moreover, her exposure to politics with her “Big Daddy” has significantly given a high contribution to her political aspirations. It is also evident that as a mother she has the heart to show compassion. She can translate this to her fellow citizens of the State. Bitzi would have good human connection with these people because she has already seen and experienced the real-world situation. Thus, her interest in running for a gubernatorial position justifies her unending passion for public service and as a catalyst for change.
Cultural and Regional Support
As a contender for the gubernatorial race, Bitzi’s strength in terms of political culture can be described as traditionalistic. Historically, the majority of winning political candidates in Texas upholds the values of traditionalistic political culture. It appears to be the most dominant framework of political beliefs, values, and behavioral habits in the State (Elazar, n.d.), which counts as an important advantage for Bitzi in her campaign. On the other hand, Bitzi is also aware of the fact that the dynamics of the political culture in the State is slowly shifting from purely traditionalistic to a mix of classical liberalism and social conservatism (aits.utexas.edu, 2016). Articulating on Bitzi’s strength in terms of political culture establishes the backdrop of what unfolds in the political environment of Texas after she won in the election. Such quality of a political figure in the State encompasses a leadership characteristic that upholds the values of social and family ties, which is relatively important for the people in the State of Texas (Elazar, n.d.). In addition, the described political culture reinforces the prevailing traditional social relations in the State of Texas.
Given the described political culture in Texas, Bitzi’s campaign strategies will depend on the areas of Texas where there is either a low or high probability of winning. Historically, the highest probability of having a shot at victory in the gubernatorial race in Texas indicates counties in the Northern, Eastern, and central regions. Bitzi is under the Republican Party and based on the last three gubernatorial elections, the Republican Party was able to amass an average of 55% majority votes in the aforementioned regions (Aaronson and Ramsey, 2014). On the other hand, the South and Southwest regions of Texas shows the lowest probability of winning the election for a Republican candidate, but the voting trends in Texas in general shows a shift from Democrat to Republican as observed on the results of the previous elections. Since Bitzi is under the Republican Party, the probability of winning in her candidacy is relatively high. Furthermore, the 2010 elections shows that former Democrat counties such as Bexar, Trinity, Brooks, Reeves, Culberson, La Salle, Falls, Kleberg, Foard, and Harris have also voted in favor of the Republican candidate (Aaronson and Ramsey, 2014).
This shows that the Democratic contenders will be getting 10 fewer counties as their stronghold in the elections moving forward. Given the changes in the voting trends in Texas, it is likely that if Betzi stays on the path of the Republican campaign strategies, she will have a high probability of victory in the gubernatorial race. Furthermore, the statistical results of the previous elections showed which areas Bitzi will do poorly and where she would prevail. It is important to note that Texas is composed of 214 counties. However, 63% of the votes encompassing majority comes from only 14 counties while the votes from the other 240 counties only generates 37% (Goldsberry, 2014). Out of the 14 biggest voting counties, Bitzi will do poorly in four counties such as Dallas, Travis, Hidalgo, and El Paso as these four still remains as Democratic stronghold. As for the rest of the 10 biggest voting counties, the likelihood of winning is high relatively high.
Demographic Support
The state of Texas is known to have lesser voter turnarounds. This is because most of the inhabitants are of old age and the youths are not interested in voting. But as of now, the education for voters has been highly increased even though the turnaround is still low. Bitzi as the granddaughter of “Big Daddy” do have a little bit of an advantage. As per mentioned, the majority of the voters are of old age. This would mean a greater number of voters do know the surname Miller. Miller as part of the Digital Generation could also relate to the younger generation. The shifting demographics of voters in Texas have had a significant influence towards the outcome of the gubernatorial election. There appear a growing number of Hispanic voters in the State. However, drawing from the results of the previous gubernatorial elections, 55% of the Hispanic voters favored the Democratic contender while the Republican only got 44% (Krogstand and Lopez, 2014).
This means that the Hispanic voting population is not the best group that could assure a sure vote for Bitzi as the voting trend of said population always splits between the two parties. The reason that Bitzi will win despite failing to acquire the Hispanic voting block is because the Hispanics is only about 13% of the entire Texas voting population. As for the other racial groups, the white voters are 60% republican while the Black voters are 10% republican (Krogstand and Lopez, 2014). This means that Bitzi will get the fewest votes from the black voters and the majority of white voters will favor her along with split vote coming from the Latinos. The key aspect in vote acquisition is about who will vote for Bitzi among the less forgiving voting groups. Based on the available statistical data, the demographics of the likely voters in favor of Bitzi are white non-Hispanic with advanced educational attainment that is mostly female of 45 years old and above (texaspolitics.utexas.edu).
Campaign Themes
The theme of the campaign for Bitzi will involve addressing the big issues facing Texas today and those are education, political corruption and leadership, and water supply. The reason for selecting the three issues as the theme of the campaign is because they were the most relevant problems that have a tremendous impact to the State’s economy, social, and political sector. There are other issues that also need utmost attention such as budget cuts, and low tax low service. However, the selected issues are far more critical for the people and what Bitzi is aiming for is to convey her plans to alleviate the circumstances of the selected problems. The problematic area in the educational sector is that the State is spending less on public education considering that the quality of K-12 education in the public schools is not very impressive (Ramsey, 2011). Part of the problem is that the State is spending more on areas that are considered less relevant to education development particularly in the public sector.
In terms of political corruption/leadership issues, the political divide, partisan, and conflict of interest among the public officials is creating a leadership vacuum. Due to the lack of leadership and commitment to ethics, it is apparent that some of the government officials are left unchecked for accountability. As a result, the quality of government services is declining and long standing problem of low tax further exacerbates the consequence of the issue, but no one seems to care in taking responsibility in creating effective solutions. Bitzi plans to address this issue by setting competitive public service standards that will serve as the guiding principle for good governance implemented across the government sectors in the State. The third issue that will be the theme of Bitzi’s campaign is about water supply problem. It is apparent that for many years, Texas is in a state of drought that is long overdue. Blitzi’s is planning to expedite the legislative process that will provide the legal framework in undertaking future water projects.
Win or Lose
Based on the presented evidence on the geographic, demographic, and voting trends in gubernatorial race in Texas, Blitz has an upper hand in winning the election several reasons. One is that the majority of the State’s counties are upholding their position to remain Republican despite the attempts of the Democratic Party to regain political dominance in the region. In addition, there is a major change in the political preference of the voters in counties that are formerly favoring the Democratic Party. Furthermore, the voting ratio of the 14 biggest vote-contributing counties is 10:4 in favor of the Republicans. Since Bitzi is running under the Republican banner, the probability of the Democrat opponent to win the election is only 29% even if the opponent is able to capture the majority block of the other 208 counties. In terms of demographic advantage, the majority of the voting public is white non-Hispanics favoring the Republican candidate along with the split vote coming from the Hispanic/Latino voting block.
While statistical and probability standards reflects a favorable outcome for Bitzi’s candidacy, the same can be assumed based on the outcome of the 2014 elections where Gregg Abbott (Republican Party) have won over Wendy Davis (Democratic Party). Abbott has succeeded Rick Perry (also a Republican) as governor of Texas putting another term in Republican’s 20-year lock in office (Preston, 2014). The reasons Abbott have won the election apart from being in the dominant political party is because of his positions regarding federal overreach on issues of healthcare and environment protection (Hoppe, 2014). As for the defeated candidate Wendy Davis, her opinion about abortion rights restrictions was not very popular and even out her on the national spotlight, but on a negative way (Wilson, 2014). The likelihood of Bitzi in winning the election is high because her campaign message and political objectives are aimed at the public’s interest that is synonymous to Abbott’s initiatives.
Jane “Bitzi” Johnson Miller
Governor – Elect
References
Aaronson, B., & Ramsey, R. (2014). Interactive Map: Comparing the 2010 and 2014 Governor's Races, by Becca Aaronson and Ross Ramsey. The Texas Tribune. Retrieved 21 February 2016, from http://www.texastribune.org/2014/11/05/interactive-compare-governors-race-2010-2014/
Elazar, D. Elezar's Three Political Cultures. Academic.regis.edu. Retrieved 21 February 2016, from http://academic.regis.edu/jriley/421elazar.htm
Goldsberry, K. (2014). Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 21 February 2016, from http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mapping-the-changing-face-of-the-lone-star-state/
Hoppe, C. (2014). Greg Abbott tops Wendy Davis in Texas governor's race. Dallasnews.com. Retrieved 21 February 2016, from http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/state-politics/20141105-abbott-leads-way-with-big-win-over-davis-in-governors-race.ece
Krogstad, J., & Lopez, M. (2014). Hispanic Voters in the 2014 Election. Pew Research Center's Hispanic Trends Project. Retrieved 21 February 2016, from http://www.pewhispanic.org/2014/11/07/hispanic-voters-in-the-2014-election/
laits.utexas.edu,. (2016). Texas Politics - Texas Political Culture. Laits.utexas.edu. Retrieved 21 February 2016, from http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/cult/print_cult.html
Preston, D. (2014). Abbott Defeats Davis in Race for Texas Governor. Bloomberg.com/politics. Retrieved 21 February 2016, from http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-05/abbott-wins-texas-governors-race-over-democrat-davis
texaspolitics.utexas.edu,. Texas Politics - The Demographics of Voting. Texaspolitics.utexas.edu. Retrieved 21 February 2016, from https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/archive/html/vce/features/0302_02/demographics.html
Wilson, R. (2014). Abbott defeats Davis in Texas governor’s race. Washington Post. Retrieved 21 February 2016, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/11/04/abbott-defeats-davis-in-texas-governors-race/
