Analyzing the conflict and its consequences requires scrutinizing the demographic data historical boundaries, territory in general and legal aspect of the situation. The demographic information addresses various issues that clarify the victims in the conflict, the legitimacy of the claims of each of the parties in the conflict and the larger history of the process. My aim is not even compare or contrast the seriousness of the situation as it is challenging to operationalize it, but rather to emphasize the urgency of the situation in Nagorno- Karabakh and to make a clearer picture of the conflict within the context of other common-featured conflict.
Victims of both conflicts:
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict stems from religious, ideological, political and historical differences whose causes are traced back to the Ancient times. At the core of the present-day conflict, the Arabs and Jews claim settlement rights and political dominion over the same region. In addition to economic challenges, the demographic and social situation in the region as a result of this conflict is worrying. Undoubtedly, the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts have caused various challenges. As a result of the on-going conflict, a significant number have died and numerous have been displaced. The number of deaths is not clearly known because various studies have produced different figures on the same. However, the figures presented in most of these studies show an increasing trend. For instance, based on the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute statistics, about 13,000 Palestinians and Israelis died as a result of the conflict between 1948 and 1997.
However, according to Hussein and Esmat, from 2000 to 2008, more than 5,848 people were killed. These deaths occurred either directly or indirectly as a result of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The statistics further indicated that of the 5,848 deaths, the majority, about 4228, was Palestinians and about 1,024 were Israelis; whereas about 63 of them were from foreign countries. Furthermore, the survey has indicated that majority of the deaths involved civilian from both sides. However, the number of civilian deaths among the Palestinians was higher as compared to the Israelis. In fact, the ratio of civilian deaths among the Israelis to the Palestinians was approximated to be 1:25. This means that for every 1 Israeli civilian deaths, there are 25 Palestinian civilian deaths. Further analysis indicates the majority of the deaths involve men. In the case of the Israelis, 69% of the deaths were men, whereas in the case of Palestinians men comprised of 94% of the deaths.
In total, a large percentage, about 52%, of the deaths occurred in the Gaza Strip. Perhaps, this is because this region has been the main battleground between the Israelis and the Palestinians. As mentioned above, despite the international intervention in the conflict, the number of deaths associated with the conflict has been increasing in an increasing rate. For instance, in 2011 alone, about 129 people died as a result of the conflict. About 118 of these deaths were Palestinians, and the rest, about 11, were the Israelis. Between 2011 and 2013, about 620 people died in Gaza Strip and West Bank, two of the most affected regions. It is worth pointing out that, based on these statistics, it is clear that the Palestinians are the most affected, showing a large number of deaths compared to the Israelis.
Armenia-Nagorno Karabakh, the numbers showing the victims of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict seems to be more large-scaled and serious. In comparison with the previously mentioned conflict, the process was not obvious and clear. The demographical statistics of the region was seriously affected by the ongoing process, and in most cases concealed to affect the demographic status.
Historically, the ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijanis started as early as the beginning of nineteenth century, and has lasted to the Nagorno-Karabakh War. During the Russian Revolution, relations between Armenians and Azerbaijanis became more high-tensioned. Baku was a multinational city where Azerbaijanis lived together with Armenians and Russians and other nationalities. Baku was predominantly governed by the revolutionary government, the “Baku commune,” whose majority consisted of the Dashnaksutun Party (Armenians). Turkish people such as Azerbaijani, generally favored the pro-Ottoman empire, and consequently the Bolsheviks supported the existence and dominance of Armenians, which consequently led to a big clash between these two major ethnic groups. In Baku alone it is estimated that Armenians killed 12,000 people in one day. The attacks on Turkish peoples, primarily Azerbaijani, by Armenians continued in other districts and cities of Azerbaijan. It is estimated that more than 132,000 Azerbaijanis were massacred throughout Azerbaijan, and an estimated 100,000 Azerbaijanis emigrated from their homeland because of the situation. A total of 180,000 Azerbaijanis, or one-third of the Azerbaijani people, were either killed or displaced from their own homelands. At the same time, not just Azerbaijanis but also 3,000 members of the Jewish population in the same areas were killed as well. The conflicts between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis were controlled with the commencement of Soviet era. In the Azerbaijan National Republic an investigation commission was established to inspect and sentence every person responsible for the 1918 massacre. Unfortunately the collapse of The Azerbaijan National Republic prevented the commission from accomplishing this task.
Displaced people and refugees
The number of displaced people as a result of this conflict is worrying. By 2012, about 144,500 individuals were in prolonged displacement along the Occupied Palestinian Territory. This number increased afterwards following a series of Israel’s offensive military operations in the Gaza region. In 2012 alone and after these operations, more than 12,000 Palestinians were displaced temporary. In the course of the Israel’s operations, more than 380 homes were destroyed. Although the majority of the displaced have returned to their homes, about 2,500 individuals are still displaced. Within the west bank region, more than 886 people, majority of who are children, were displaced as of 2012.
Nagorno- Karabakh conflict demographic analysis demonstrates very grave results. The numbers that indicate the IDP’s and the people migrating are mentioned differently in both countries’ sources. However, the statistical indicators establish that the total population experienced significant numerical increase during the existence of the former USSR. In Chart B, it might appear that the Armenian population decreased in size between 1959 and 1979, but that is inconclusive because of the absence as well as inaccuracy of necessary information. Now we also know that, there were significant reportage errors in the respective censuses of the Armenian population at that time. No indication is given regarding the deaths and migrations of the peoples, especially Armenians with a history of active migration. Armenia, with a 34.4% migration of its population to other republics, was a Soviet republic with the acknowledged highest migration rate in the USSR. Likewise, there is no indication of the influx of large numbers of Azerbaijanis into the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAR) after 1960.
Chart A. 1979 NKAR ethnic content and percentage
*Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region Pop
*In Chart B the Armenian population decreases but in the initial years the censuses were not conducted according to rigorous methodology. The statistics were afterward partially corrected.
Armenians migrating to Azerbaijani lands
The presence of ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijani territory started with their flight from genocidal persecution in Turkey and their massive migration into Tsarist Russia in 1828. The Armenian migration into Caucasian territory was encouraged by Russia at that time. Commander-in-Chief of the Army of the Caucuses, P.D. Sisianov wrote, “Caucasia is a strategic point of the region. Our dominance here is vital and we should continue controlling these lands.” Sisianov afterwards furthered this policy by deliberately assisting Armenians to migrate into this region. By 1908, the number of Armenians living in Azerbaijani territories reached 400,000 people. The Armenian migration process intensified after the Turkmenchay and Edirne treaties. According to Sheremetyev, the Armenian population reached 1,300,000 people in the historical Azerbaijani lands, concentrated mostly in Karabakh (then called the Kaspi region) Yelisavetpol (Ganca) and Iravan (Erevan). Armenian historians confirm the facts of the Armenian mass migration into this area with Russian encouragement, despite the Armenian animosity towards the Azerbaijani Turks, asserting it was an effort to give sanctuary to the Armenians fleeing Turkish “ethnic cleansing.” Hovanesian, in The Republic of Armenia, states that at least 400,000 Armenians were resettled to Transcaucasia and to the east of Turkey.
Historical background
In order to objectively analyze the claims of Armenians about their historical presence in the area, it is necessary to recognize and address assumptions in Armenian historians’ works. First, according to Hovanisian, the hatred of Armenian ethnicity towards Azerbaijani stems from their Turkic origin. This assumption affects not only Azerbaijani-Armenian relations but also the relations between Armenia and Turkey. Armenian historians argue that 2 million Armenians were deported from Anatolia. This fact cannot be true because before 1915 there were only 700,000 Armenians in this region. The major portion of the Armenian population had already migrated to other countries; the other portion was not subject to Ottoman rule as they were under Russian governance (in occupied Russian territories). The Armenians who lived in “Western Turkey” remained on that region and never migrated. Second, Armenian historians claim that 1.5 million Armenians were killed, a number that needs to be questioned for the same reasons as the number of Armenians deported from Anatolia. The numbers claimed exceed the numbers of the existing population.
The existence of the USSR also proved beneficial for the achievement of the ideas and missions of Armenians on Azerbaijani territories, beyond the issue of their territorial claims. The main objective set by the Soviet Armenian government was initially to resettle Armenians living outside Azerbaijani territories into the various cities of Soviet Azerbaijan, such as Nagorno Karabakh. The pretext for this “repatriation policy” into Azerbaijani territories was that Soviet Armenia did not have the necessary conditions in their Republic to accept those migrating Armenians. Coincidentally, the repatriated Armenians were mostly concentrated in the regions where Azerbaijani people were fewer and more sparsely settled.
The next step during the Soviet period for Armenians to accomplish their objectives was to repress the Azerbaijanis living on the territories that they have claimed for themselves. In 1960, an additional 200,000 Armenians were repatriated to such territories, and from 1973 to 1975, while another 100,000 Armenians were repatriated from abroad to Azerbaijani territories (the majority to Nagorno-Karabakh).
At the same time as the Armenians were being repatriated into Azerbaijani territory, Azerbaijanis were forced to leave their homes in Armenia USSR. The number of Internally Displaced People (IDP) from that territory was more than 4,000.
Transcaucasia region all along its history intermingled various ethnicities. Unless the Palestinian-Israeli issue, Azerbaijanis and Armenians never had a perception toward each other as enemies. Although these two nations have different religion and language they shared a lot in common. Being in the same region created common customs, lead to transnational marriages and to a noticeable degree common physical appearance. In a short review to history: The soviet army on 27th of April 1920 annexed Baku, whereas in November 1920, Armenia was Sovietized. On 5th of July 1921, Stalin forced the Soviet central Government to vote for NK to become an Autonomous Oblast in the SSR of Azerbaijan (Walker 1991, 108).
It should be mentioned that, after collapse of USSR, Nagorno-Karabakh, according to terms of international law remained in the state of Azerbaijan. In struggles for political status in region, the Armenians requested for annexation Nagorno-Karabakh to the Republic of Armenia, otherwise Armenia will announce its independence. Based on their arguments, before the conflicts, Armenians formed 75% of the population of this region, and Azerbaijanis discriminated them in a socio-economic manner and culturally exploited them for decades.
According to the universally recognized principles and norms of international law, the Republic of Azerbaijan, demands the protection of its territorial integrity.
According to the Soviet Constitution from 1977, Art 71, The Soviet Union consisted of 15 union republics, which stood on the highest level of hierarchy of regional unions, established on national basis. The highest level of hierarchy which is already mentioned was followed by regional unions, also established on a national basis:
а) Autonomous republics
b) Autonomous regions (Oblasti)
c) National regions (Okrugi)
Based on Art.72 of the Soviet Constitution, union republics were only entitled to secede from the USSR freely. On the threshold of the collapse of USSR, a new comprehensive law for regulation of the mechanism of such secessions, was adopted (we will touch upon this law again below).
Art 78, of USSR Constitution. That Article stated:
„The territory of a Union Republic may not be altered without its consent. The boundaries between the Union Republics may be altered by mutual agreement of the Republics concerned, subject to ratification by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.”
It is evident that, unlike autonomous territories, any changes in territorial integrity of the union republics were regulated by the constitution, and only by consent of the relevant republic. In this case, between Azerbaijani SSR and the Armenian SSR there was no agreement on the secession of the Nagorno-Garabagh, which was an Autonomous Region from the Azerbaijani SSR.
References:
B’TSELEM. The Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, 2014
2 Boqa’I Nihad’I. Palestinian internally displaced persons inside Israel: Challenging the solid structures. Journal of Politics, Economics, and Culture. Vol. 15(16), 2013
3 Boqa’I Nihad’I, 2013
4 B’TSELEM. The Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, 2014
5 Caplan, Neil. The Israel-Palestine Conflict Contested Histories. Chichester, U.K.: Wiley Blackwell, 2010
6 Caplan, Neil. The Israel-Palestine Conflict Contested Histories. Chichester, U.K.: Wiley Blackwell, 2010
7 E.Ahmedov-“ErmenistaninAzerbyacanTecavuzu-Tehlilixronika”p 36
8F.E.Tsertisivadze-Armenian Genoliede p.39
9 Hussein Al-Rimmwi and Esmat Zeidan. Effect of demographic factor on Palestinian-Israeli Conflict. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, Vol. 3(6), 2013
10 Hussein Al-Rimmwi and Esmat Zeidan. Effect of demographic factor on Palestinian-Israeli Conflict. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, Vol. 3(6), 2013
11 http://karabakh.org/articles/legal-aspects-of-the-nagorno-karabakh-conflict/
12 Hussein Al-Rimmwi and Esmat Zeidan. Effect of demographic factor on Palestinian-Israeli Conflict. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, Vol. 3(6), 2013
13 http://prrn.mcgill.ca/background/index.htm
14 ibid p 80
15 J.McCarthyC.McCarthy-Turks and Armenians “A manual on Armenian question” p 79
16 N.Shavrov-“Novaya uqrozarusskomudelu v Zakfkazye” p.82
17 OCHA Special Focus. Israeli-Palestinian fatalities since 2000-Key trends, 2007
18 OCHA Special Focus. Israeli-Palestinian fatalities since 2000-Key trends, 2007
19 R.Mustafayev-“Marshismerti:Prestupleniya armyanstva protiv yevreyskoqo narodo” p.26
20 Xalilov X. “Qarabaginelatdunyasi” p. 119
