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Introduction. During the course of the last five decades, we have seen the global population grow at a much faster rate than before. Today the world has about 7.5 billion people and this number may increase to 9 billion by 2050. It is indeed surprising to note that in 1950 the global population was only 2.5 billion (PRB, 2008). So what has led to this massive growth in global population? What are the key factors that have influenced this growth? What are their inter relationships? How might we approach to solving the perceived Neo-Malthusian dilemma?
History has a lot to do with the current state of the human population. The human species began around 3 million years ago and at that time humans lived a dangerous existence with hunting being the main activity. Slowly, this gave way to agriculture and more people were supported by communities (PRB, 2008). According to Bishai (2006), there is indeed a strong relationship between population growth and growth rate of economies. Though the relationship is seen as inconsistent, there are many views pertaining to this relationship and the many interacting variables. For instance, according to Schultz (1973), it can be seen that one view supports the idea that fertility, birth rate and rate of growth of population is directly proportional and related to economic development and growth. Another theory supports the opposite view – that population growth is independent of economic development and growth. Engelman and Cincotta (1997), believe that though there are disagreements between these two theories, it was evident in the 1980s that population growth reduced the nation’s per capita GDP. The rate of growth in the poor countries was affected due to higher population. However in countries like Hong Kong, Singapore; where the fertility rate declined, there was a boom in the economy. This led to proper family planning procedures and resulted in creating good opportunities in health, education, employment and stock markets. The orthodox theory assumes that as the supply of natural resources and capital is limited, the supply will grow slowly as compared to population and so development will be curtailed. According to Engelman and Cincotta (1997), the demographic-economic premise assumes that developing nations will benefit and increase their economic development if the rate of population slows down. As this continues, governments will be able to invest more in education, health and socio economic progress can be enabled. Though this may be true for certain countries, the questions around the relationships between fertility, population growth and the way increased rate of population affects economic growth, are still not answered. According to classical Malthusian theory, the rate of population growth is geometric while the rate of growth of subsistence/food is arithmetic. This dissonance leads to shortage of food and therefore may lead to disease, malnutrition and thereby reduces the growth of population. Governments have to therefore act to bring in preventive checks – reducing the birth rate or positive checks initiated by nature that will bring down the population growth. Some of the Malthusian theories do have discrepancies as it relates to the developed countries. In European countries the use of machines in agriculture led to mass production of food, but this did not lead to rapid population growth. In fact, the controlled population growth has enabled these countries to offer their people a higher standard of living, as compared to newly developed or under-developed countries. Bishai (2006) contends that as per the Neo-Malthusian construct, the high rate of population growth in countries like India, lead to a shift from capital investment to education and health. So the high expenditure results in poor socio-economic growth. However this theory assumes the unique dependency between economic growth and capital growth. In reality, economic growth is also due to other factors like the impact of technology in manufacturing and farming processes and increased labor productivity due to an educated, skilled workforce. Clearly, the interplay between rates of fertility, population growth, economic growth, social development – all contribute to theories on population. According to Bishai (2006), the rate of population growth is impacted by many factors such as, deforestation and agricultural development, employment , food and water availability, access to education and the phenomenon of urbanization. Rapid growth in population results in degradation of the environment, which in turn leads to decrease in cultivable land, more urbanization, less food and water. These are cyclical relationships and they interact in different ways, making them difficult to analyze. This is where the importance of government policy and regulation becomes apparent. Policies on agriculture, land reforms, and environment will affect the way populations move to urban centers – putting pressure on scant land and other resources like food, water, habitation. As an example, in sub-saharan Africa, almost 90% of households use wood for their energy needs. Population growth will only increase the demand for wood fuel, increasing deforestation leading to environmental consequences. There are clear relationships between the growth in labor force and economic development. The world has a labor force of around 2.7 billion of which one third are unemployed. More than 1.7 billion jobs need to be newly created by 2050, to ensure that the rate of population growth aligns with rate of employment growth. Countries like Uganda, Niger and Oman, with relatively young populations will feel the need to increase education infrastructure to cope with population growth. Cohen (1995) opines that the growth in the human population has also led to inequalities in global income distribution. People with good education and skills are sought after and earn much more than others. There is a movement of skilled people around the globe to locations where they are needed. This has resulted in the morphing of big cities into urban mix of people of different cultures, race, religions – which also leads to friction in human interactions. As per Neo-Malthusian theory, the variables at play influence each other at differing times, in differing circumstances across the world. The preventive checks like abortion, contraception, prostitution play a role and so the positive checks like war, famine and disease. Pobedash (n.d.), writes about the preventive, destructive and subsistence checks under the Neo-Malthusian construct. One way to look at approaching the problem is to ensure preventive checks. These involve the use of sterilization, castration, celibacy, restraint, late marriage, contraception, “abnormal” sex practices, abortion and so on. Destructive checks can be attained by raising death rates due to premature infanticide, diseases that can’t be cured, increase in crime, capital punishment, shortages in employment, wars and so on. The third one is the subsistence check, relating to shortages of food. Ebanks (1998), cites two examples of The Neo-Malthusian Dilemma for Latin America and the Caribbean. Both the regions faced the prospect of unsustainable development due to decreased population growth. Both these regions decided to follow the UN plan which envisages changing of production patterns with social emphasis, as a way to survive global competition. The improved production will ultimately help these regions compete internationally. The change involved the use of technology rather than labor to enhance productivity. With this approach, Chile, as an example has made rapid progress since the lost decade of the 1980s. The model gives equal emphasis on growth and the poor.
Conclusion. The relationships between the various factors related to population growth remain complex. Every country is faced with its unique challenges in terms of population growth, fertility, mortality and socio-economics. A unified approach is needed to address these gaps in regions and countries. A global index based on the key factors could be created to assign current status of each country. This moving index can be then tracked to ensure progress. As an example, countries with a largely young population facing a labor gap can be helped with new technology and skilled labor migration from countries with surplus labor. Such unified actions and new approaches are necessary to ensure sustained global and economic growth.
References
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Pobedash, D. (n.d.). Malthusian Dilemma. Ural State University. Retrieved from:
http://fir.ispn.urfu.ru/media/files/man/4year/ir-theory/malthusian-dilemma.pdf
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